Papers by Nicola Caravaggio
Forests, 2021
Forest dynamics are changing at a local and global level, with multiple social and environmental ... more Forest dynamics are changing at a local and global level, with multiple social and environmental implications. The current literature points to different theories and hypotheses to explain these forest dynamics. In this paper, we formalized some of those theories, the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC), the forest transition and the ecologically unequal exchange, into hypotheses tested with a panel dataset covering 111 countries during the period the period 1992–2015. Considering the nature of our data, we relied on cointegration techniques to assess both long- and short-run dynamics in forest change, avoiding possible spurious results. Moreover, we attempted to disentangle direct and indirect effects of our independent variables to uncover the mechanisms that underly forest change dynamics. The results show that there is a long-run dynamic equilibrium relationship between forest cover area, economic development, agricultural area and rural population density. Furthermore, our result...
Forest Policy and Economics, 2022
Latin America forests in the past decades has finally seen an easing in deforestation rates. This... more Latin America forests in the past decades has finally seen an easing in deforestation rates. This data, although hiding heterogeneous trends, suggests that this region may have embarked on the road to a forest transition (FT). Therefore, this paper empirically investigates the existence of a FT for Latin America through a specific Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) perspective. It relies on a panel of 21 countries and on novel satellite source characterized by a long-time coverage (1982–2015), hence particularly suitable to investigate the long-run dynamics between forest cover and economic development. Countries are clustered into two major groups according to the FT stage they are in. Results suggest the existence of a FT for Latin America along its economic development. Countries in early- and pre-transition stages have a U-shape relationship with a turning point at US$ 7,150. Conversely, countries in late- and post-transition stages show an opposite curve, albeit with a far high turning point, suggesting how the relationship after the first turning point will continue to be positive. The paper also conducts the analysis by comparing different forest cover sources showing how results may differ, hence representing a concern for any proper policy intervention. About this issue and the implication of the FT the paper reflects further in the conclusion.
This paper investigates an unresolved question in environmental economics: An Environmental Kuzne... more This paper investigates an unresolved question in environmental economics: An Environmental Kuznets Curve for deforestation (EKCd). It relies on a 55 year panel of forest cover data reconstructed from the periodic national forest inventories of 114 countries clustered in low, middle, and high income groups―as defined by the World Bank―and examines these clusters within both static and dynamic frameworks. The results are supportive of the inverse U-shaped EKC for deforestation. For low income countries strong effort will be required to avoid further increases in forest loss as these countries develop. Middle income countries, the largest cluster under investigation, display the classic bell-shaped EKCd with the turning point for a decreasing rate of deforestation at US$ 3,790. Deforestation continues thereafter, only at a lower rate until, eventually, for high income countries these rates become negative and these economies begin to show absolute gains in total forest cover. While the combined results from the three clusters confirm the existence of an EKCd, its relatively elevated turning point and the even higher level of development at which forests begin to increase and recover, raise important concern, but also opportunity, for the modern policies and management addressing global forest cover―doubts and opportunities on which the conclusion to this paper reflects further.
This paper reviews the literature of an unresolved question in environmental economics, the envir... more This paper reviews the literature of an unresolved question in environmental economics, the environmental Kuznets curve for deforestation (EKCd). It begins by summarizing the general EKC, the idea that economies draw on their environmental resources during initial growth but, with further growth above some level, their environmental decline attains a turning point. Most investigations of the EKCd are limited to approximately 25 years of FAO forest cover data and most feature sets of developing countries. These are short time series for a resource like forests and the paucity of evidence from developed countries is another weakness. Further discussion of two related concepts, the Forest Transition and a von-Thünen-based forest development pattern, shows a second EKC turning point for deforestation which (unlike environmental resources like, say, CO2) can recover with reforestation and addition to the forest base. Altogether, this background of experience recommends that future examinations of the unresolved EKCd reconsider, among others, the duration and thoroughness of the data, the extent of the cross-sectional international coverage, and the potential of a second turning point occurring for higher levels of development.
Environmental-economic perspectives are recently taking growing momentum in the analysis of count... more Environmental-economic perspectives are recently taking growing momentum in the analysis of country-level performances, but few studies take into account the multi-dimensional nature of the phenomenon. The leading measure of pollution still remains only CO2 emission or, at best, CO2 equivalent emission. The few works taking a multi-criteria perspective are mainly related to specific case studies, urban areas, or the localization of renewable power plants. In this paper, we propose a multi-criteria analysis for a macro-perspective assessment of 10 different pollutants in 30 European countries over the period 2008–2015. Methodologically, we propose a new hybrid tool allowing us to merge the consolidated procedure usually employed for environmental evaluation: PROMETHEE, with a more flexible weighing process inspired by Data Envelopment Analysis. The unprecedented use of this tool for developing a macro perspective allows the clustering of European countries according their relative performances without any exogenous assumption about the weights given to the specific pollutants. In addition, the empirical evidence emerging from the analysis provides a comprehensive picture of patterns followed by European economies, which highlights the relative strengths and flaws at country-level for the considered pollutants.
Brazil has an energy matrix which is based on 45% of renewable sources, and more than 70% of this... more Brazil has an energy matrix which is based on 45% of renewable sources, and more than 70% of this electricity is drawn from hydroelectric plants. The present work tries to show how big hydroelectric projects, even if it is globally acknowledged as clean, can hide several threats for both humans and the environment. With this aim, the analytical tool of Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) has been applied on two hydroelectric projects: the Tucuruí dam (already in operation - attempting to simulate an ex-ante analysis but using actual data) and the Belo Monte dam (not yet fully operating - using forecasts). The evaluation of the feasibility of both these projects is obtained by calculating the ENPV (Economic Net Present Value) and the B/C Ratio (Benefits to Costs Ratio). Then subsequent arguments are proposed as to why a technical and quantitative comparison of these projects is difficult to implement in practice, due to uncertainties as to which SDRs (Social Discount Rates)should be applied or upon which distinct.
The main goal of the essay is to develop a Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) of the Belo Monte hydroele... more The main goal of the essay is to develop a Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) of the Belo Monte hydroelectric power plant, located in the middle of the Brazilian Amazon Rainforest. The analysis focuses particularly on social and environmental issues arising from the implementation of this project. Results show a positive Economic Net Present Value (ENPV), therefore a net benefit of about US $ 950 million. However, despite a positive ENPV, when the Social Discount Rate (5%) is modified, the project no longer has a positive net benefit, thus feasibility.
Ecuador is going through a crucial phase in its new life, and it is gaining growing awareness of ... more Ecuador is going through a crucial phase in its new life, and it is gaining growing awareness of its social, cultural and economic means to guarantee rights to all the citizens. Most policies adopted by President Rafael Correa - who took office in 2007 and is currently in his third term - are focused on changing the relationship between nature and society. During his presidency Correa took on the task to overcome the neo-liberal recipes of privatization, liberalisation and structural adjustment, underpinning an alternative model of society and development that includes the concept of Buen Vivir. The approach originates from deep in the culture of indigenous communities of Latin America. A life model with roots in the Sumak Kawsay, which in the Andean "Quechua" means to live in harmony with others and with the environment. The Ecuadorian Constitution itself, approved in 2008, states the institutionalisation of Buen Vivir, emphasising the magic simplicity of nature and recognising it as a legal good, bearer of rights and duties. With this paper we intend illustrating the concept and the basic ideas and principles of the Buen Vivir approach. It is a new paradigm of development, far from the prevailing socio-economic transformations triggered by the post-neoliberal framework. A peoples capitalism and a Latin American socialism, that is the Sumak Kawsay. The attempt is to establish values that go beyond the hegemony of conventional utilitarian principles. In addition, the intent is to create a deep link between indigenous communities and nature, in order to move away from an individual-centric approach towards the individual in the social context of his/her community and his/her unique environmental situation, thus highlighting a less anthropocentric and more eco-centric model. Our aim is therefore to investigate the real meaning of the Sumak Kawsay and then to compare it with what actually has been done in Ecuador, such as the Yasuní-ITT initiative launched in 2010. From the political and economic programs of the "new" Ecuador we will also analyse the values of the country about the main indicators of human development. Finally, we want to verify the possible limits of Buen Vivir and whether this approach is sustainable, which means that it can be a long-lasting one, capable of generating a real structural change in Latin American countries.
Presentations by Nicola Caravaggio
Climate change and sustainability targets are key issues within the global development strategy. ... more Climate change and sustainability targets are key issues within the global development strategy. Emerging economies are perceived to have the greatest pollutant potential and the highest likelihood to shift from a dirty to a clean development paradigm. Renewable energies are increasingly considered as first best solution to combine development achievements while preserving the ecosystem services. The case of the Brazilian Amazon allows reflecting on potential benefits and controversial issues arising when a large deployment of hydro power as a renewable energy source is planned. While hydro is a carbon free source, the negative impacts on biodiversity, deforestation, water quality and supply, and social inequality – especially for indigenous populations – should be necessarily considered within an effective sustainable oriented development plan. The negative effects are related to different stages of the production process, from the dams building to the water pollution. The analysis will focus on two of the most important and criticized hydroelectric project in the Amazon Region: Tucuruí and Belo Monte. The former dates back in the seventies, at the age of the military dictatorship. The latter, initiated during a democratic period, has just been finished. Despite the big-time frame dividing these two projects, several controversial aspects (e.g. stakeholder engagement and environmental conservation) didn’t change. To evaluate the two projects a simplified CBA analysis has been carried out. The realized comparison pointed out both positive and negative aspects of the plants, urging for possible fairer alternatives for following hydropower plants in the Amazon. Furthermore, the analysis tried to give a prospective view of the expected development North Region of Brazil especially due to the improvement of the energy sector. The present contribution is aimed to set an analytical framework in order to capture potential benefits and costs related to hydro power exploitation in a cradle to the grave approach, to better inform policy makers in their investment decisions.
Research Projects by Nicola Caravaggio
AguaSociAL is a joint exchange programme which aims to strengthen research cooperation and knowle... more AguaSociAL is a joint exchange programme which aims to strengthen research cooperation and knowledge sharing between Brazil and Europe within the water related sciences.
Essays in collective Volumes by Nicola Caravaggio
Climate change and sustainability targets are key issues within the global development strategy. ... more Climate change and sustainability targets are key issues within the global development strategy. Emerging economies are perceived to have the greatest pollutant potential and the highest likelihood to shift from a dirty to a clean development paradigm. Renewable energies are increasingly considered as first best solution to combine development achievements while preserving the ecosystem services. The case of the Brazilian Amazon allows reflecting on potential benefits and controversial issues arising when a large deployment of hydro power as a renewable energy source is planned. While hydro is a main alternative to carbon source, the negative impacts on biodiversity, deforestation, water quality and supply, and social inequality – especially for indigenous populations – should be necessarily considered within an effective sustainable oriented development plan. The negative effects are related to different stages of the production process, from the dams building to the water pollution. The analysis will focus on two of the most important and criticized hydroelectric project in the Amazon Region: Tucuruí and Belo Monte. The former dates back in the seventies, at the age of the military dictatorship. The latter, initiated during a democratic period, has just been finished. Despite the big-time frame dividing these two projects, several controversial aspects (e.g. stakeholder engagement and environmental conservation) didn’t change. To evaluate the two projects a simplified CBA analysis has been carried out. The realized comparison pointed out both positive and negative aspects of the plants, urging for possible fairer alternatives for following hydropower plants in the Amazon. Furthermore, the analysis tried to give a prospective view of the expected development North Region of Brazil especially due to the improvement of the energy sector. The present contribution is aimed to set an analytical framework in order to capture potential benefits and costs related to hydro power exploitation in a cradle to the grave approach, to better inform policy makers in their investment decisions.
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Papers by Nicola Caravaggio
Presentations by Nicola Caravaggio
Research Projects by Nicola Caravaggio
Essays in collective Volumes by Nicola Caravaggio