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Structural Transformation and the Rise of Information Technology

Author

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  • Giovanni Gallipoli

    (Vancouver School of Economics, University of British Columbia, Canada; The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis)

  • Christos A. Makridis

    (Department of Management Science & Engineering, Department of Economics, Stanford University, USA)

Abstract

Has the emergence of information technology changed the structure of employment and earnings in the US? We propose a new index of occupation-level IT intensity and document several long-term changes in the occupational landscape over the past decades. Using Census micro-data between 1970 and 2015, we show that: (i) the share of workers in IT-intensive jobs has expanded significantly, with little or no pause; (ii) IT jobs enjoy a large and growing earnings premium, even after controlling for general task requirements (e.g., cognitive, non-routine); and (iii) the rise of the IT employment share is closely associated with declines in the manufacturing employment share. Although the earnings premia for college-educated and high cognitive/non-routine skilled workers have declined in the aggregate since 2000, we show that they have continued growing in IT jobs. We subsequently introduce an equilibrium model of occupational sorting based on comparative advantage between IT and non-IT jobs to quantify the contribution of IT jobs towards accelerating the pace of structural transformation. Our results suggest that technological growth among IT jobs has played a major role in accounting for the surge in high tech service labor productivity since 1980.

Suggested Citation

  • Giovanni Gallipoli & Christos A. Makridis, 2017. "Structural Transformation and the Rise of Information Technology," Working Paper series 17-30, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    • Handle: RePEc:rim:rimwps:17-30
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    11. Hötte, Kerstin, 2023. "Demand-pull, technology-push, and the direction of technological change," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(5).
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    13. Christos A. Makridis & Barry T. Hirsch, 2021. "The Labor Market Earnings of Veterans: Is Military Experience More or Less Valuable than Civilian Experience?," Journal of Labor Research, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 303-333, December.
    14. Giovanni Gallipoli & Christos A. Makridis, 2022. "Sectoral digital intensity and GDP growth after a large employment shock: A simple extrapolation exercise," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(S1), pages 446-479, February.
    15. Pugsley, Benjamin, 2018. "Comment on “Structural transformation and the rise of information technology” by Gallipoli and Makridis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 111-116.
    16. Florentine Schwark & Andreas Tryphonides, 2022. "Digitalization and Resilience to Disaggregate Shocks," University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics 08-2022, University of Cyprus Department of Economics.
    17. Manuel A. Hidalgo-Pérez & Benedetto Molinari, 2022. "The effect of early automation on the wage distribution with endogenous occupational choices," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 39(3), pages 1055-1082, October.
    18. Selale Tuzel & Miao Ben Zhang, 2021. "Economic Stimulus at the Expense of Routine‐Task Jobs," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(6), pages 3347-3399, December.
    19. Galindo da Fonseca, João Alfredo & Gallipoli, Giovanni & Yedid-Levi, Yaniv, 2020. "Match quality and contractual sorting," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    20. Jasmine Mondolo, 2022. "The composite link between technological change and employment: A survey of the literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(4), pages 1027-1068, September.
    21. Gallipoli, Giovanni, 2023. "Comments on unequal growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 19-24.
    22. Giovanni Gallipoli & Khalil Esmkhani & Michael Böhm, 2019. "Skill-Biased Firms and the Distribution of Labor Market Returns," 2019 Meeting Papers 1199, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    23. Giulio Cornelli & Jon Frost & Saurabh Mishra, 2023. "Artificial intelligence, services globalisation and income inequality," BIS Working Papers 1135, Bank for International Settlements.
    24. Makridis, Christos A. & Han, Joo Hun, 2021. "Future of work and employee empowerment and satisfaction: Evidence from a decade of technological change," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
    • O32 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Management of Technological Innovation and R&D

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