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Structural Change with Long-run Income and Price Effects

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  • Diego A. Comin
  • Danial Lashkari
  • Martí Mestieri

Abstract

We present a new multi-sector growth model that features nonhomothetic, constant-elasticity-of-substitution preferences, and accommodates long-run demand and supply drivers of structural change for an arbitrary number of sectors. The model is consistent with the decline in agriculture, the hump-shaped evolution of manufacturing, and the rise of services over time. We estimate the demand system derived from the model using household-level data from the U.S. and India, as well as historical aggregate-level panel data for 39 countries during the postwar period. The estimated model parsimoniously accounts for the broad patterns of sectoral reallocation observed among rich, miracle and developing economies. Our estimates support the presence of strong nonhomotheticity across time, income levels, and countries. We find that income effects account for the bulk of the within-country evolution of sectoral reallocation.

Suggested Citation

  • Diego A. Comin & Danial Lashkari & Martí Mestieri, 2015. "Structural Change with Long-run Income and Price Effects," NBER Working Papers 21595, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21595
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    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
    • O5 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies

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