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Collective Emotions and Protest Vote

Author

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  • Carlo Altomonte
  • Gloria Gennaro
  • Francesco Passarelli

Abstract

We leverage on important findings in social psychology to build a behavioral theory of protest vote. An individual develops a feeling of resentment if she loses income over time while richer people do not, or if she does not gain as others do, i.e. when her relative deprivation increases. In line with the Intergroup Emotions Theory, this feeling is amplified if the individual identifies with a community experiencing the same feeling. Such a negative collective emotion, which we define as aggrievement, fuels the desire to take revenge against traditional parties and the richer elite, a common trait of populist rhetoric. The theory predicts higher support for the protest party when individuals identify more strongly with their local community and when a higher share of community members are aggrieved. We test this theory using longitudinal data on British households and exploiting the emergence of the UK Independence Party (UKIP) in Great Britain in the 2010 and 2015 national elections. Empirical findings robustly support theoretical predictions. The psychological mechanism postulated by our theory survives the controls for alternative non-behavioral mechanisms (e.g. information sharing or political activism in local communities).

Suggested Citation

  • Carlo Altomonte & Gloria Gennaro & Francesco Passarelli, 2019. "Collective Emotions and Protest Vote," CESifo Working Paper Series 7463, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7463
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    Cited by:

    1. Riccardo Crescenzi & Marco Di Cotaldo & Mara Guia, 2019. "It’s not about the money! EU funds, local opportunities, and the Brexit vote," LEQS – LSE 'Europe in Question' Discussion Paper Series 149, European Institute, LSE.
    2. Colantone, Italo & Ottaviano, Gianmarco & Stanig, Piero, 2021. "The backlash of globalization," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 113860, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Crescenzi, Riccardo & Di Cataldo, Marco & Giua, Mara, 2020. "It’s not about the money. EU funds, local opportunities, and Euroscepticism," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    4. Sergei Guriev & Elias Papaioannou, 2022. "The Political Economy of Populism," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(3), pages 753-832, September.
    5. Manzoni, Elena & Murard, Elie & Quercia, Simone & Tonini, Sara, 2024. "News, Emotions, and Policy Views on Immigration," IZA Discussion Papers 17017, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Morelli, Massimo & Gennaro, Gloria & Lecce, Giampaolo, 2021. "Mobilization and the Strategy of Populism Theory and Evidence from the United States," CEPR Discussion Papers 15686, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Albanese, Giuseppe & Barone, Guglielmo & de Blasio, Guido, 2022. "Populist voting and losers’ discontent: Does redistribution matter?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    8. Miguel Calvin & Pilar Rey del Castillo, 2023. "A Bayesian Networks Approach for Analyzing Voting Behavior," CESifo Working Paper Series 10855, CESifo.
    9. Ping-Hung Chen & Chien-Wen Peng, 2024. "Determinants of Intra-District Residential Mobility – A Case Study of Taipei Metropolitan Area," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 27(3), pages 329-359.
    10. Fidrmuc, Jan & Hulényi, Martin & Tunalı, Çiğdem Börke, 2019. "Can money buy EU love?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    11. Italo Colantone & Livio Di Lonardo & Yotam Margalit & Marco Percoco, 2022. "The Political Consequences of Green Policies: Evidence from Italy," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 22176, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    electoral behaviour; protest vote; populism; relative deprivation; community cohesion; UK Independence Party;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H10 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - General

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