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Bayesian Estimation of Non-Stationary Markov Models Combining Micro and Macro Data

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  • Storm, Hugo
  • Heckelei, Thomas
  • Mittelhammer, Ron C.

Abstract

We develop a Bayesian framework for estimating non-stationary Markov models in situations where macro population data is available only on the proportion of individuals residing in each state, but micro-level sample data is available on observed transitions between states. Posterior distributions on non-stationary transition probabilities are derived from a micro-based prior and a macro-based likelihood using potentially asynchronous data observations, providing a new method for inferring transition probabilities that merges previously disparate approaches. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate how observed micro transitions can improve the precision of posterior information. We provide an empirical application in the context of farm structural change.

Suggested Citation

  • Storm, Hugo & Heckelei, Thomas & Mittelhammer, Ron C., 2014. "Bayesian Estimation of Non-Stationary Markov Models Combining Micro and Macro Data," 2014 International Congress, August 26-29, 2014, Ljubljana, Slovenia 186376, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:eaae14:186376
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.186376
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    8. Zimmermann, Andrea & Heckelei, Thomas, 2012. "Differences of farm structural change across European regions," Discussion Papers 162879, University of Bonn, Institute for Food and Resource Economics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Zorn, Alexander & Zimmert, Franziska, 2020. "Structural adjustment of Swiss dairy farms - farm exit and farm type change," 60th Annual Conference, Halle/ Saale, Germany, September 23-25, 2020 305605, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
    2. Storm, Hugo & Heckelei, Thomas, 2012. "Predicting agricultural structural change using census and sample data," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 125185, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Zimmermann, Andrea & Heckelei, Thomas, 2012. "Differences of farm structural change across European regions," Discussion Papers 162879, University of Bonn, Institute for Food and Resource Economics.
    4. Storm, Hugo & Heckelei, Thomas & Espinosa, María & Gomez y Paloma, Sergio, 2015. "Short Term Prediction of Agricultural Structural Change using Farm Accountancy Data Network and Farm Structure Survey Data," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 64(03), September.
    5. Oudendag, Diti & Hoogendoorn, Mark & Jongeneel, Roel, 2014. "Agent-Based Modeling of Farming Behavior: A Dutch Case Study on Milk Quota Abolishment and Sustainable Dairying," 2014 International Congress, August 26-29, 2014, Ljubljana, Slovenia 182700, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    6. Neuenfeldt, S. & Rieger, J. & Heckelei, T. & Gocht, A. & Ciaian, P. & Tetteh, G., 2018. "A multiplicative competitive interaction model to explain structural change along farm specialisation, size and exit/entry using Norwegian farm census data," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277090, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    7. Alexander Zorn & Franziska Zimmert, 2022. "Structural change in the dairy sector: exit from farming and farm type change," Agricultural and Food Economics, Springer;Italian Society of Agricultural Economics (SIDEA), vol. 10(1), pages 1-31, December.
    8. Alexander Gocht & Norbert Röder & Sebastian Neuenfeldt & Hugo Storm & Thomas Heckelei, 2012. "Modelling farm structural change: A feasibility study for ex-post modelling utilizing FADN and FSS data in Germany and developing an ex-ante forecast module for the CAPRI farm type layer baseline," JRC Research Reports JRC75524, Joint Research Centre.
    9. Legrand D. F. Saint-Cyr & Laurent Piet, 2017. "Movers and stayers in the farming sector: accounting for unobserved heterogeneity in structural change," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 66(4), pages 777-795, August.
    10. Zorn, Alexander & Zimmert, Franziska, 2020. "Structural adjustment of Swiss dairy farms - farm exit and farm type change," 60th Annual Conference, Halle/ Saale, Germany, September 23-25, 2020 305605, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
    11. Laurent, Piet & Legrand D.F. Saint-Cyr, 2016. "Projection de la population des exploitations agricoles françaises à l’horizon 2025," Working Papers SMART 16-11, INRAE UMR SMART.
    12. Saint-Cyr, Legrand D. F. & Piet, Laurent, 2014. "Movers and Stayers in the Farming Sector: Another Look at Heterogeneity in Structural Change," 2014 International Congress, August 26-29, 2014, Ljubljana, Slovenia 183068, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    13. Unay-Gailhard, İlkay & Bojnec, Štefan, 2016. "Sustainable participation behaviour in agri-environmental measures," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 138, pages 47-58.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Land Economics/Use; Production Economics; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C81 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data; Data Access

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