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Exchange-market pressure and currency crises in Latin America: Empirical tests of their macroeconomic determinants

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  • Scott W Hegerty

    (Canisius College)

Abstract

During the financial crisis of 2008, the currencies of Latin America faced pressure to devalue— which evoked memories of the “contagious” crises of the 1990s. Yet even between crises, domestic macroeconomic factors can have an impact on a country's exchange market. This study creates quarterly time series of exchange-market pressure for five Latin American countries, not only for two periods of crisis, but for the entire past decade. These series are then used in two separate analyses. The first addresses the macroeconomic determinants of this pressure, finding that current account deficits place the most pressure on a country's currency and that economic growth tends to reduce this pressure. The second study assesses the probability of a crisis, and finds that oil price drops (a global factor) might precipitate a currency crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Scott W Hegerty, 2010. "Exchange-market pressure and currency crises in Latin America: Empirical tests of their macroeconomic determinants," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(3), pages 2210-2219.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-10-00355
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Scott W Hegerty, 2013. "Exchange Market Pressure, Output Drops, and Domestic Credit: Do Emerging Markets Behave Differently?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(4), pages 2583-2595.
    2. Scott W. Hegerty, 2014. "Measuring Exchange Market Pressure and Its Contagion in the East African Community," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 82(2), pages 239-257, June.
    3. Scott W. Hegerty, 2015. "Commodity-Price Volatility, Exchange Market Pressure, and Macroeconomic Linkages: Evidence from Latin America," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 2(2), pages 11-21.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange Market Pressure; Currency Crises; Current Account; Latin America;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance

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