IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rmk/rmkbae/v2y2015i2p11-21.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Commodity-Price Volatility, Exchange Market Pressure, and Macroeconomic Linkages: Evidence from Latin America

Author

Listed:
  • Scott W. Hegerty

Abstract

As a major source of commodity exports, Latin America has long been susceptible to external shocks, that continue to this day. With prices falling for oil, copper, and other key products, it is important to study the effects of commodity-price volatility on the region’s macroeconomies. Using Principal Components Analysis, this study creates an index of Latin American commodity prices. This index’s volatility is then entered into a VAR that includes exchange market pressure (EMP), U.S. stock prices, and other macroeconomic variables. Granger causality and impulse-response functions show that variables such as growth are more affected by commodity-price volatility than is EMP. One key finding is that commodity-price risk reduces economic growth in Mexico, Chile, and Peru, but appears to increase Brazil’s growth rate. Further exploration might help reveal possible differences in Brazil’s economic structure that might drive this result.

Suggested Citation

  • Scott W. Hegerty, 2015. "Commodity-Price Volatility, Exchange Market Pressure, and Macroeconomic Linkages: Evidence from Latin America," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 2(2), pages 11-21.
  • Handle: RePEc:rmk:rmkbae:v:2:y:2015:i:2:p:11-21
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.riskmarket.co.uk/bae/journals-articles/issues/commodity-price-volatility-exchange-market-pressure-and-macroeconomic-linkages-evidence-from-latin-america/?download=attachment.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew K & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 1453, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Reboredo, Juan C., 2012. "Modelling oil price and exchange rate co-movements," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 419-440.
    3. repec:bla:scandj:v:98:y:1996:i:4:p:463-84 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Scott W Hegerty, 2010. "Exchange-market pressure and currency crises in Latin America: Empirical tests of their macroeconomic determinants," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(3), pages 2210-2219.
    5. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    6. Scott W. Hegerty, 2014. "Exchange market pressure, commodity prices, and contagion in Latin America," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(1), pages 56-77, February.
    7. Scott W Hegerty, 2013. "Exchange Market Pressure, Output Drops, and Domestic Credit: Do Emerging Markets Behave Differently?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(4), pages 2583-2595.
    8. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Fan, Ying & Tsai, Hsien-Tang & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2008. "Spillover effect of US dollar exchange rate on oil prices," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 973-991.
    9. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    10. Stephanos Papadamou & Thomas Markopoulos, 2014. "Investigating Intraday Interdependence Between Gold, Silver and Three Major Currencies: the Euro, British Pound and Japanese Yen," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 20(4), pages 399-410, November.
    11. Ms. Ratna Sahay & Mr. Luis Felipe Céspedes & Mr. Paul Cashin, 2002. "Keynes, Cocoa, and Copper: In Search of Commodity Currencies," IMF Working Papers 2002/223, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza & Markwardt, Gunther, 2009. "The effects of oil price shocks on the Iranian economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 134-151, January.
    13. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Yuan, Yuan, 2008. "Metal volatility in presence of oil and interest rate shocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 606-620, March.
    14. Sari, Ramazan & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Soytas, Ugur, 2010. "Dynamics of oil price, precious metal prices, and exchange rate," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 351-362, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kablan, Sandrine & Ftiti, Zied & Guesmi, Khaled, 2017. "Commodity price cycles and financial pressures in African commodities exporters," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 215-231.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Scott W. Hegerty, 2013. "Exchange market pressure, stock prices, and commodity prices in West Africa," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(6), pages 750-765, November.
    2. HEGERTY, Scott W., 2014. "Exchange Market Pressure And Regional Price Spillovers In Russia, Ukraine, And Belarus," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 14(2).
    3. K.S., Sujit & Ray, Subhajyoti, 2023. "Linear and nonlinear asymmetric relationship in crude oil, gold, stock market and exchange rates: An evidence from the UAE," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    4. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Aye, Goodness C. & Gupta, Rangan & Gkillas, Konstantinos, 2020. "Gold-oil dependence dynamics and the role of geopolitical risks: Evidence from a Markov-switching time-varying copula model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    5. Zied Ftiti & Aviral Tiwari & Ibrahim Fatnassi, 2014. "Oil price and macroeconomy in India – An evolutionary cospectral coherence approach," Working Papers 2014-68, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    6. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan & Sajjad Faraji Dizaji, 2014. "Political Institutions and Government Spending Behavior in Iran," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201403, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    7. Sajjad F. Dizaji & Mohammad Reza Farzanegan & Alireza Naghavi, 2016. "Political institutions and government spending behavior: theory and evidence from Iran," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 23(3), pages 522-549, June.
    8. Kumeka, Terver Theophilus & Uzoma-Nwosu, Damian Chidozie & David-Wayas, Maria Onyinye, 2022. "The effects of COVID-19 on the interrelationship among oil prices, stock prices and exchange rates in selected oil exporting economies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    9. Umar, Zaghum & Jareño, Francisco & Escribano, Ana, 2021. "Oil price shocks and the return and volatility spillover between industrial and precious metals," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    10. Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2015. "Financial and Macroeconomic Connectedness: A Network Approach to Measurement and Monitoring," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199338306.
    11. Gupta, Rangan & Majumdar, Anandamayee & Pierdzioch, Christian & Wohar, Mark E., 2017. "Do terror attacks predict gold returns? Evidence from a quantile-predictive-regression approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 276-284.
    12. Huang, Shupei & An, Haizhong & Lucey, Brian, 2020. "How do dynamic responses of exchange rates to oil price shocks co-move? From a time-varying perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    13. Sari, Ramazan & Soytas, Ugur & Hacihasanoglu, Erk, 2011. "Do global risk perceptions influence world oil prices?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 515-524, May.
    14. Kanjilal, Kakali & Ghosh, Sajal, 2017. "Dynamics of crude oil and gold price post 2008 global financial crisis – New evidence from threshold vector error-correction model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 358-365.
    15. Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2015. "Structural breaks, dynamic correlations, asymmetric volatility transmission, and hedging strategies for petroleum prices and USD exchange rate," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 46-60.
    16. Hamdi, Helmi & Sbia, Rashid, 2013. "Dynamic relationships between oil revenues, government spending and economic growth in an oil-dependent economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 118-125.
    17. Yin, Libo & Ma, Xiyuan, 2018. "Causality between oil shocks and exchange rate: A Bayesian, graph-based VAR approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 508(C), pages 434-453.
    18. Troug, Haytem & Murray, Matt, 2015. "The Effects of Asymmetric Shocks in Oil Prices on the Performance of the Libyan Economy," MPRA Paper 68705, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Reboredo, Juan C., 2013. "Is gold a hedge or safe haven against oil price movements?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 130-137.
    20. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan, 2014. "Military Spending and Economic Growth: The Case of Iran," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(3), pages 247-269, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Commodity Prices; Volatility; Exchange Market Pressure; Latin America; Vector Autoregression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rmk:rmkbae:v:2:y:2015:i:2:p:11-21. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Eleftherios Spyromitros-Xioufis (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.riskmarket.co.uk/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.