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Measuring currency pressures: The cases of the Japanese yen, the Chinese yuan, and the UK pound

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  • Hall, Stephen G.
  • Kenjegaliev, Amangeldi
  • Swamy, P.A.V.B.
  • Tavlas, George S.

Abstract

We investigate bilateral currency pressures against the US dollar for three currencies: the Japanese yen, the Chinese yuan, and the UK pound during the period 2000:Q1 to 2009:Q4. We employ a model-based methodology to measure exchange market pressure over the period. Conversion factors required to estimate the pressure on these currencies are computed using a time-varying coefficient regression. We then use our measures of currency pressures to assess deviations of exchange rates from their market-equilibrium levels. For the yen, our measure of currency pressure suggests undervaluation during the initial part of our estimation period, a period during which the Bank of Japan sold yen in the foreign exchange market. We find persistent undervaluation of the yuan throughout the estimation period, with the undervaluation peaking at about 20% in 2004 and 2007. For the pound, the results indicate low pressure – suggesting a mainly free-floating currency – throughout the sample period. These results appear consistent with the policies pursued by the central banks of the currencies in question.

Suggested Citation

  • Hall, Stephen G. & Kenjegaliev, Amangeldi & Swamy, P.A.V.B. & Tavlas, George S., 2013. "Measuring currency pressures: The cases of the Japanese yen, the Chinese yuan, and the UK pound," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 1-20.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jjieco:v:29:y:2013:i:c:p:1-20
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jjie.2013.04.001
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    7. Hall, Stephen G. & Hondroyiannis, George & Kenjegaliev, Amangeldi & Swamy, P.A.V.B. & Tavlas, George S., 2013. "Is the relationship between prices and exchange rates homogeneous?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 411-438.
    8. Francesco Franco & Julio Antonio Rocha Delgado & Suzana Camacho Monteiro & Pedro Castro e Silva, 2015. "Exchange rate pressure in Angola," NOVAFRICA Working Paper Series wp1502, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Nova School of Business and Economics, NOVAFRICA.
    9. Ratnasari, Anggraeni & Widodo, Tri, 2017. "Exchange Market Pressure and Monetary Policies in ASEAN5," MPRA Paper 81543, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    Keywords

    Exchange market pressure; Currency misalignment; Time-varying-coefficient;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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