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Variable Rare Disasters: An Exactly Solved Framework for Ten Puzzles in Macro-Finance

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Cited by:

  1. Gabaix, Xavier & Verdelhan, Adrien & Rancière, Romain & Farhi, Emmanuel & Fraiberger, Samuel P., 2009. "Crash Risk in Currency Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 7322, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Ralph S. J. Koijen & Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Adrien Verdelhan, 2010. "Long Run Risk, the Wealth-Consumption Ratio, and the Temporal Pricing of Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 552-556, May.
  3. Freire, Gustavo, 2021. "Tail risk and investors’ concerns: Evidence from Brazil," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
  4. Fève, Patrick & Sanchez, Pablo Garcia & Moura, Alban & Pierrard, Olivier, 2021. "Costly default and skewed business cycles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
  5. Eran Hoffmann, 2018. "The Cyclical Composition of Startups," 2018 Meeting Papers 553, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  6. Tim Bollerslev & Viktor Todorov, 2011. "Tails, Fears, and Risk Premia," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(6), pages 2165-2211, December.
  7. Nicole Branger & Patrick Konermann & Christoph Meinerding & Christian Schlag, 2021. "Equilibrium Asset Pricing in Directed Networks [Risk premia and term premia in general equilibrium]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 25(3), pages 777-818.
  8. Robin Greenwood & Samuel G. Hanson, 2011. "Issuer Quality and the Credit Cycle," NBER Working Papers 17197, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Piero Ferri & AnnaMaria Variato, 2010. "Financial Fragility, the Minskian Triad, and Economic Dynamics," International Journal of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(2), pages 70-82.
  10. Zhengyang Jiang & Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Mindy Z. Xiaolan, 2024. "The U.S. Public Debt Valuation Puzzle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 92(4), pages 1309-1347, July.
  11. Alex Chinco & Samuel M. Hartzmark & Abigail B. Sussman, 2022. "A New Test of Risk Factor Relevance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(4), pages 2183-2238, August.
  12. Philippe Mueller & Andrea Vedolin & Hao Zhou, 2019. "Short-Run Bond Risk Premia," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(03), pages 1-34, September.
  13. Michael Weber & Christian Dorion & Alexandre Jeanneret & Harjoat Bhamra, 2017. "Deflation, Sticky Leverage and Asset Prices," 2017 Meeting Papers 796, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  14. Robin Greenwood & Samuel G. Hanson, 2013. "Issuer Quality and Corporate Bond Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(6), pages 1483-1525.
  15. Ralph S. J. Koijen & Tomas J. Philipson & Harald Uhlig, 2016. "Financial Health Economics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84, pages 195-242, January.
  16. Julien Pénasse & Luc Renneboog, 2022. "Speculative Trading and Bubbles: Evidence from the Art Market," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(7), pages 4939-4963, July.
  17. Siddiqi, Hammad, 2015. "Anchoring and Adjustment Heuristic: A Unified Explanation for Equity Puzzles," MPRA Paper 68729, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  18. Adrien Verdelhan, 2018. "The Share of Systematic Variation in Bilateral Exchange Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(1), pages 375-418, February.
  19. Barro, Robert J. & Ursúa, José F., 2017. "Stock-market crashes and depressions," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 384-398.
  20. François Gourio, 2013. "Credit Risk and Disaster Risk," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 1-34, July.
  21. Philippe Bacchetta & Cédric Tille & Eric van Wincoop, 2012. "Self-Fulfilling Risk Panics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(7), pages 3674-3700, December.
  22. Robert Barro & Tao Jin, 2021. "Rare Events and Long-Run Risks," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 39, pages 1-25, January.
  23. Zhongjun Qu & Denis Tkachenko, 2017. "Global Identification in DSGE Models Allowing for Indeterminacy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 84(3), pages 1306-1345.
  24. Matthew Baron & Wei Xiong, 2017. "Credit Expansion and Neglected Crash Risk," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(2), pages 713-764.
  25. Damir Filipovic & Martin Larsson & Anders B. Trolle, 2018. "On the Relation Between Linearity-Generating Processes and Linear-Rational Models," Papers 1806.03153, arXiv.org.
  26. Heiberger, Christopher, 2020. "Labor market search, endogenous disasters and the equity premium puzzle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
  27. Pratish Patel & Andrew Raquel & Savannah Chadwick, 2024. "The cash-secured put-write strategy and the variance risk premium," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 25(1), pages 31-50, February.
  28. Ruenzi, Stefan & Ungeheuer, Michael & Weigert, Florian, 2013. "Extreme Downside Liquidity Risk," Working Papers on Finance 1326, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance, revised Jul 2015.
  29. Stefano Giglio & Matteo Maggiori & Johannes Stroebel & Stephen Utkus, 2021. "Five Facts about Beliefs and Portfolios," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(5), pages 1481-1522, May.
  30. John H. Cochrane, 2016. "The Habit Habit," Economics Working Papers 16105, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
  31. von Peter, Goetz & von Dahlen, Sebastian & Saxena, Sweta, 2024. "Unmitigated disasters? Risk sharing and macroeconomic recovery in a large international panel," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
  32. De Santis, Roberto A. & Van der Veken, Wouter, 2020. "Macroeconomic risks across the globe due to the Spanish Flu," Working Paper Series 2466, European Central Bank.
  33. Brice Corgnet & Camille Cornand & Nobuyuki Hanaki, 2023. "Negative Tail Events, Emotions & Risk Taking," Post-Print hal-04228190, HAL.
  34. Michael Siemer & Adrien Verdelhan & Francois Gourio, 2015. "Uncertainty and International Capital Flows," 2015 Meeting Papers 880, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  35. Koulovatianos, Christos & Wieland, Volker, 2011. "Asset pricing under rational learning about rare disasters," IMFS Working Paper Series 46, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
  36. Marlène Isoré, 2012. "Essays in macro-finance [Essais de macro-finance]," SciencePo Working papers Main tel-03669376, HAL.
  37. Keiichiro Kobayashi & Kozo Ueda, 2017. "Secular Stagnation under the Fear of a Government Debt Disaster," CIGS Working Paper Series 17-012E, The Canon Institute for Global Studies.
  38. Simon Lloyd & Ed Manuel & Konstantin Panchev, 2024. "Foreign Vulnerabilities, Domestic Risks: The Global Drivers of GDP-at-Risk," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 72(1), pages 335-392, March.
  39. Jesús Fernández‐Villaverde & Oren Levintal, 2018. "Solution methods for models with rare disasters," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 9(2), pages 903-944, July.
  40. Brice Corgnet & Camille Cornand & Nobuyuki Hanaki, 2021. "Emotional Markets: Competitive Arousal, Overbidding and Bubbles," Working Papers 2117, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
  41. Sang Byung Seo & Jessica A. Wachter, 2019. "Option Prices in a Model with Stochastic Disaster Risk," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(8), pages 3449-3469, August.
  42. Wen, Jun & Zhao, Xin-Xin & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2021. "The impact of extreme events on energy price risk," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
  43. Yong Wang & Changyang Liu & Gaoyi Wang, 2020. "Geopolitical Risk Revealed in International Investment and World Trade," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 22(2), pages 133-154, June.
  44. Robert Barro, 2023. "r Minus g," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 48, pages 1-17, April.
  45. George M. Constantinides & Anisha Ghosh, 2017. "Asset Pricing with Countercyclical Household Consumption Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(1), pages 415-460, February.
  46. Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam, 2023. "Recency bias and the cross-section of international stock returns," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
  47. Ruggero Jappelli & Loriana Pelizzon & Alberto Plazzi, 2021. "The Core, the Periphery, and the Disaster: Corporate-Sovereign Nexus in COVID-19 Times," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 21-30, Swiss Finance Institute.
  48. Maćkowiak, Bartosz & Wiederholt, Mirko, 2018. "Lack of preparation for rare events," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 35-47.
  49. Rangan Gupta & Tahir Suleman & Mark E. Wohar, 2019. "The role of time‐varying rare disaster risks in predicting bond returns and volatility," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(3), pages 327-340, July.
  50. Wei Chen, 2013. "G-consistent price system and bid-ask pricing for European contingent claims under Knightian uncertainty," Papers 1308.6256, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2013.
  51. Bansal, Ravi & Miller, Shane & Song, Dongho & Yaron, Amir, 2021. "The term structure of equity risk premia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(3), pages 1209-1228.
  52. Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam, 2022. "Salience theory and the cross-section of stock returns: International and further evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 689-725.
  53. Bryan Kelly & Hao Jiang, 2013. "Tail Risk and Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 19375, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  54. Marfè, Roberto & Pénasse, Julien, 2024. "Measuring macroeconomic tail risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
  55. Demirer, Riza & Gupta, Rangan & Suleman, Tahir & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "Time-varying rare disaster risks, oil returns and volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 239-248.
  56. Marlène Isoré, 2018. "Changes in Natural Disaster Risk: Macroeconomic Responses in Selected Latin American Countries," Economies, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-12, February.
  57. Jerry Tsai & Jessica A. Wachter, 2015. "Disaster Risk and its Implications for Asset Pricing," NBER Working Papers 20926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  58. Dalderop, Jeroen, 2023. "Semiparametric estimation of latent variable asset pricing models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(1).
  59. Xu, Xiangyun & Li, Xing & Meng, Jie & Hu, Xueqi & Ge, Yingfan, 2024. "The impact of the tail risk of demand on corporate investment: Evidence from Chinese manufacturing firms," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
  60. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Pablo Guerron-Quintana, 2020. "Uncertainty Shocks and Business Cycle Research," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 118-166, August.
  61. Wei Guo & Xinfeng Ruan & Sebastian A. Gehricke & Jin E. Zhang, 2023. "Term spreads of implied volatility smirk and variance risk premium," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(7), pages 829-857, July.
  62. Lettau, Martin & Wachter, Jessica A., 2011. "The term structures of equity and interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 90-113, July.
  63. Bidder, R.M. & Smith, M.E., 2018. "Doubts and variability: A robust perspective on exotic consumption series," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 689-712.
  64. Akao, Ken-Ichi & Sakamoto, Hiroaki, 2018. "A theory of disasters and long-run growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 89-109.
  65. Sönksen, Jantje & Grammig, Joachim, 2021. "Empirical asset pricing with multi-period disaster risk: A simulation-based approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 805-832.
  66. William Ginn, 2022. "Climate Disasters and the Macroeconomy: Does State-Dependence Matter? Evidence for the US," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 141-161, March.
  67. Ivan Faiella & Filippo Natoli, 2018. "Natural catastrophes and bank lending: the case of flood risk in Italy," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 457, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  68. Stefano Giglio & Matteo Maggiori & Johannes Stroebel, 2016. "No‐Bubble Condition: Model‐Free Tests in Housing Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84, pages 1047-1091, May.
  69. Robert J Barro & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Oren Levintal & Andrew Mollerus, 2022. "Safe Assets," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(646), pages 2075-2100.
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    • Robert J. Barro, 2014. "Safe Assets," Working Papers 2014-28, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    • Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Barro, Robert & Levintal, Oren & Mollerus, Andrew, 2017. "Safe Assets," CEPR Discussion Papers 12043, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Robert Barro & Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Oren Levintal & Andrew Mollerus, 2017. "Safe Assets," PIER Working Paper Archive 17-008, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 10 May 2017.
  70. Jules van Binsbergen & Michael Brandt & Ralph Koijen, 2012. "On the Timing and Pricing of Dividends," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1596-1618, June.
  71. Allan Wright & Patrice Borda, 2016. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations Under Natural Disaster Shocks in Central America and the Caribbean," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 97076, Inter-American Development Bank.
  72. Haddow, Abigail & Hare, Chris & Hooley, John & Shakir, Tamarah, 2013. "Macroeconomic uncertainty: what is it, how can we measure it and why does it matter?," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 53(2), pages 100-109.
  73. Piero Ferri, 2011. "Macroeconomics of Growth Cycles and Financial Instability," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14260.
  74. Weber, Michael, 2018. "Cash flow duration and the term structure of equity returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(3), pages 486-503.
  75. Taylor, Nick, 2014. "The rise and fall of technical trading rule success," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 286-302.
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  77. Farmer, Roger, 2016. "Pricing Assets in an Economy with Two Types of People," CEPR Discussion Papers 11253, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  78. Markus Sihvonen, 2024. "Yield curve momentum," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 28(3), pages 805-830.
  79. Fratzscher, Marcel & Chudik, Alexander, 2012. "Liquidity, Risk and the Global Transmission of the 2007-08 Financial Crisis and the 2010-11 Sovereign Debt Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 8787, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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