IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/25282.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Accounting for Macro-Finance Trends: Market Power, Intangibles, and Risk Premia

Author

Listed:
  • Emmanuel Farhi
  • François Gourio

Abstract

Real risk-free interest rates have trended down over the past 30 years. Puzzlingly in light of this decline, (1) the return on private capital has remained stable or even increased, creating an increasing wedge with safe interest rates; (2) stock market valuation ratios have increased only moderately; (3) investment has been lackluster. We use a simple extension of the neoclassical growth model to diagnose the nexus of forces that jointly accounts for these developments. We find that rising market power, rising unmeasured intangibles, and rising risk premia, play a crucial role, over and above the traditional culprits of increasing savings supply and technological growth slowdown.

Suggested Citation

  • Emmanuel Farhi & François Gourio, 2018. "Accounting for Macro-Finance Trends: Market Power, Intangibles, and Risk Premia," NBER Working Papers 25282, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25282
    Note: AP EFG ME
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nber.org/papers/w25282.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Isoré, Marlène & Szczerbowicz, Urszula, 2017. "Disaster risk and preference shifts in a New Keynesian model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 97-125.
    2. Paul Gomme & B. Ravikumar & Peter Rupert, 2011. "The Return to Capital and the Business Cycle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(2), pages 262-278, April.
    3. Robert J Barro & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Oren Levintal & Andrew Mollerus, 2022. "Safe Assets," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(646), pages 2075-2100.
      • Robert J. Barro, 2014. "Safe Assets," Working Papers 2014-28, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
      • Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Barro, Robert & Levintal, Oren & Mollerus, Andrew, 2017. "Safe Assets," CEPR Discussion Papers 12043, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
      • Robert J. Barro & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Oren Levintal & Andrew Mollerus, 2014. "Safe Assets," NBER Working Papers 20652, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
      • Robert Barro & Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Oren Levintal & Andrew Mollerus, 2017. "Safe Assets," PIER Working Paper Archive 17-008, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 10 May 2017.
    4. Ricardo J. Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2017. "Rents, Technical Change, and Risk Premia Accounting for Secular Trends in Interest Rates, Returns on Capital, Earning Yields, and Factor Shares," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(5), pages 614-620, May.
    5. Casey B. Mulligan, 2002. "Capital, Interest, and Aggregate Intertemporal Substitution," NBER Working Papers 9373, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Robert E. Hall, 2018. "New Evidence on the Markup of Prices over Marginal Costs and the Role of Mega-Firms in the US Economy," NBER Working Papers 24574, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Carvalho, Carlos & Ferrero, Andrea & Nechio, Fernanda, 2016. "Demographics and real interest rates: Inspecting the mechanism," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 208-226.
    8. Carol Corrado & Charles Hulten & Daniel Sichel, 2009. "Intangible Capital And U.S. Economic Growth," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 55(3), pages 661-685, September.
    9. John Y. Campbell, 2008. "Viewpoint: Estimating the equity premium," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(1), pages 1-21, February.
    10. John G. Fernald, 2015. "Productivity and Potential Output before, during, and after the Great Recession," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(1), pages 1-51.
    11. Ricardo J Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi, 2018. "The Safety Trap," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(1), pages 223-274.
    12. Martin Lettau & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Jessica A. Wachter, 2008. "The Declining Equity Premium: What Role Does Macroeconomic Risk Play?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1653-1687, July.
    13. Jonathan A. Parker & Michael Woodford, 2015. "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2014, Volume 29," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number park14-1.
    14. Dongya Koh & Raül Santaeulàlia‐Llopis & Yu Zheng, 2020. "Labor Share Decline and Intellectual Property Products Capital," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(6), pages 2609-2628, November.
    15. Julian Kozlowski & Laura Veldkamp & Venky Venkateswaran, 2015. "The Tail that Wags the Economy: Belief-Driven Business Cycles and Persistent Stagnation," Working Papers 15-10, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    16. Carol Corrado & John Haltiwanger & Daniel Sichel, 2005. "Measuring Capital in the New Economy," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number corr05-1.
    17. Loukas Karabarbounis & Brent Neiman, 2019. "Accounting for Factorless Income," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 33(1), pages 167-228.
    18. Michael Elsby & Bart Hobijn & Ayseful Sahin, 2013. "The Decline of the U.S. Labor Share," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 44(2 (Fall)), pages 1-63.
    19. Eichenbaum, Martin & Parker, Jonathan A. (ed.), . "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2016," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226490229, September.
    20. Eggertsson, Gauti B. & Robbins, Jacob A. & Wold, Ella Getz, 2021. "Kaldor and Piketty’s facts: The rise of monopoly power in the United States," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(S), pages 19-38.
    21. François Gourio, 2013. "Credit Risk and Disaster Risk," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 1-34, July.
    22. Robert J. Barro, 2006. "Rare Disasters and Asset Markets in the Twentieth Century," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(3), pages 823-866.
    23. Matthias Kehrig & Nicolas Vincent, 2021. "The Micro-Level Anatomy of the Labor Share Decline," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 136(2), pages 1031-1087.
    24. Etienne Gagnon & Benjamin K. Johannsen & David López-Salido, 2021. "Understanding the New Normal: The Role of Demographics," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 69(2), pages 357-390, June.
    25. Julian Kozlowski & Laura Veldkamp & Venky Venkateswaran, 2020. "The Tail That Wags the Economy: Beliefs and Persistent Stagnation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(8), pages 2839-2879.
    26. Xavier Gabaix, 2011. "Disasterization: A Simple Way to Fix the Asset Pricing Properties of Macroeconomic Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(3), pages 406-409, May.
    27. Ian Martin, 2017. "What is the Expected Return on the Market?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(1), pages 367-433.
    28. Ian W. Martin, 2013. "Consumption-Based Asset Pricing with Higher Cumulants," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(2), pages 745-773.
    29. Germán Gutiérrez & Thomas Philippon, 2017. "Investmentless Growth: An Empirical Investigation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(2 (Fall)), pages 89-190.
    30. Jan De Loecker & Jan Eeckhout & Gabriel Unger, 2020. "The Rise of Market Power and the Macroeconomic Implications [“Econometric Tools for Analyzing Market Outcomes”]," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(2), pages 561-644.
    31. Jeffrey R. Campbell & Jonas D. M. Fisher & Alejandro Justiniano & Leonardo Melosi, 2017. "Forward Guidance and Macroeconomic Outcomes since the Financial Crisis," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(1), pages 283-357.
    32. Xavier Gabaix, 2012. "Variable Rare Disasters: An Exactly Solved Framework for Ten Puzzles in Macro-Finance," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(2), pages 645-700.
    33. John Y. Campbell & Samuel B. Thompson, 2008. "Predicting Excess Stock Returns Out of Sample: Can Anything Beat the Historical Average?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1509-1531, July.
    34. van Ark, Bart & Hao, Janet X. & Corrado, Carol & Hulten, Charles, 2009. "Measuring intangible capital and its contribution to economic growth in Europe," EIB Papers 3/2009, European Investment Bank, Economics Department.
    35. James D. Hamilton & Ethan S. Harris & Jan Hatzius & Kenneth D. West, 2016. "The Equilibrium Real Funds Rate: Past, Present, and Future," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(4), pages 660-707, November.
    36. Jonas D.M. Fisher, 2015. "On the Structural Interpretation of the Smets–Wouters “Risk Premium” Shock," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(2-3), pages 511-516, March.
    37. Matthias Kehrig & Nicolas Vincent, 2017. "Growing Productivity without Growing Wages: The Micro-Level Anatomy of the Aggregate Labor Share Decline," CESifo Working Paper Series 6454, CESifo.
    38. Fernando M. Duarte & Carlo Rosa, 2015. "The equity risk premium: a review of models," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue 2, pages 39-57.
    39. Farhi, Emmanuel & Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Caballero, Ricardo, 2017. "Rents, Technical Change, and Risk Premia: Accounting for Secular Trends in Interest Rates, Returns to Capital, Earnings Yields," CEPR Discussion Papers 11833, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    40. Marx, Magali & Mojon, Benoît & Velde, François R., 2021. "Why have interest rates fallen far below the return on capital?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(S), pages 57-76.
    41. Lukasz Rachel & Thomas D. Smith, 2017. "Are Low Real Interest Rates Here to Stay?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(3), pages 1-42, September.
    42. Eichenbaum, Martin & Parker, Jonathan A. (ed.), . "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2017," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226577838, July.
    43. Leonard I. Nakamura, 2010. "Intangible Assets And National Income Accounting," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 56(s1), pages 135-155, June.
    44. Jessica A. Wachter, 2013. "Can Time-Varying Risk of Rare Disasters Explain Aggregate Stock Market Volatility?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(3), pages 987-1035, June.
    45. Matthew Rognlie, 2015. "Deciphering the Fall and Rise in the Net Capital Share," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 50(1 (Spring), pages 1-69.
    46. Rietz, Thomas A., 1988. "The equity risk premium a solution," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 117-131, July.
    47. Isaiah Andrews & Matthew Gentzkow & Jesse M. Shapiro, 2017. "Measuring the Sensitivity of Parameter Estimates to Estimation Moments," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(4), pages 1553-1592.
    48. John Y. Campbell, 2007. "Estimating the Equity Premium," NBER Working Papers 13423, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    49. Matthew Rognlie, 2015. "Deciphering the Fall and Rise in the Net Capital Share: Accumulation or Scarcity?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 46(1 (Spring), pages 1-69.
    50. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:4:p:1481-1509 is not listed on IDEAS
    51. Eichenbaum, Martin & Parker, Jonathan A. (ed.), 2018. "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2017," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226577661, September.
    52. Martin Eichenbaum & Jonathan A. Parker, 2017. "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2016, Volume 31," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number eich-3.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Loukas Karabarbounis & Brent Neiman, 2019. "Accounting for Factorless Income," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 33(1), pages 167-228.
    2. Eggertsson, Gauti B. & Robbins, Jacob A. & Wold, Ella Getz, 2021. "Kaldor and Piketty’s facts: The rise of monopoly power in the United States," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(S), pages 19-38.
    3. Simcha Barkai, 2020. "Declining Labor and Capital Shares," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(5), pages 2421-2463, October.
    4. Marx, Magali & Mojon, Benoît & Velde, François R., 2021. "Why have interest rates fallen far below the return on capital?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(S), pages 57-76.
    5. German Gutierrez, 2018. "Investigating Global Labor and Pro t Shares," 2018 Meeting Papers 165, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. David Rezza Baqaee & Emmanuel Farhi, 2020. "Productivity and Misallocation in General Equilibrium," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(1), pages 105-163.
    7. Marfè, Roberto & Pénasse, Julien, 2024. "Measuring macroeconomic tail risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    8. Brand, Claus & Bielecki, Marcin & Penalver, Adrian, 2018. "The natural rate of interest: estimates, drivers, and challenges to monetary policy JEL Classification: E52, E43," Occasional Paper Series 217, European Central Bank.
    9. Drago Bergholt & Francesco Furlanetto & Nicolò Maffei-Faccioli, 2022. "The Decline of the Labor Share: New Empirical Evidence," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 163-198, July.
    10. Adriana Grasso & Juan Passadore & Facundo Piguillem, 2024. "The Macroeconomics of Hedging Income Shares," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 54, October.
    11. Ian Goldin & Pantelis Koutroumpis & François Lafond & Julian Winkler, 2024. "Why Is Productivity Slowing Down?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 196-268, March.
    12. Aditya Aladangady & Etienne Gagnon & Benjamin K. Johannsen & William B. Peterman, 2021. "Macroeconomic Implications of Inequality and Income Risk," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-073, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Tarek Benjamin Moll & Lukasz Rachel & Pascual Restrepo, 2019. "Uneven Growth: Automation’s Impact on Income and Wealth Inequality," Boston University - Department of Economics - The Institute for Economic Development Working Papers Series dp-333, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    14. Vicente Salas & Lucio San Juan & Javier Vallés, 2018. "Corporate cost and profit shares in the euro area and the US: the same story?," Working Papers 1833, Banco de España.
    15. Isoré, Marlène & Szczerbowicz, Urszula, 2017. "Disaster risk and preference shifts in a New Keynesian model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 97-125.
    16. Maarten de Ridder, 2022. "Market power and innovation in the intangible economy," POID Working Papers 064, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    17. ADACHI Daisuke & SAITO Yukiko, 2020. "Multinational Production and Labor Share," Discussion papers 20012, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    18. Philippe Aghion & Antonin Bergeaud & Timo Boppart & Peter J Klenow & Huiyu Li, 2023. "A Theory of Falling Growth and Rising Rents," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(6), pages 2675-2702.
    19. Mumtaz Ahmad & John Fernald & Hashmat Khan, 2019. "Returns to Scale in U.S. Production, Redux," Carleton Economic Papers 19-07, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
    20. Emilien Gouin-Bonenfant, 2018. "Productivity Dispersion, Between-firm Competition and the Labor Share," 2018 Meeting Papers 1171, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25282. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.