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Stock Market Cross-Sectional Skewness and Business Cycle Fluctuations

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Abstract

Using U.S. data from 1926 to 2015, I show that financial skewness?a measure comparing cross-sectional upside and downside risks of the distribution of stock market returns of financial firms?is a powerful predictor of business cycle fluctuations. I then show that shocks to financial skewness are important drivers of business cycles, identifying these shocks using both vector autoregressions and a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. Financial skewness appears to reflect the exposure of financial firms to the economic performance of their borrowers.

Suggested Citation

  • Thiago Revil T. Ferreira, 2018. "Stock Market Cross-Sectional Skewness and Business Cycle Fluctuations," International Finance Discussion Papers 1223, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:1223
    DOI: 10.17016/IFDP.2018.1223
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cross-Sectional Skewness; Business Cycle Fluctuations; Financial Channel;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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