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The role of central bank knowledge and trust for the public's inflation expectations

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  • Mellina, Sathya
  • Schmidt, Tobias

Abstract

Since the financial crisis, central banks have stressed the role of trust and communication in connection with their objectives and strategies for aligning the public's inflation expectations with their own and, consequently, improving the effectiveness of monetary policy. Assessing how much the general public knows about and trust in central banks and how these factors influence inflation expectations is thus important. We shed light on these issues by relying on a representative survey conducted among individuals living in Germany. Although most respondents assume that they have a good or very good knowledge of the ECB and the Bundesbank, only about 20 percent cite "price stability" when asked directly about the two central banks' objectives. Knowledge of the ECB's and the Bundesbank's goals act as significant drivers of trust in these institutions, however. And greater trust in the ECB and Bundesbank, in turn, lowers individuals' inflation expectations. More specifically, having greater trust increases the probability of expecting unchanged prices and decreases the likelihood of expecting either slightly or sharply rising prices over the medium term. Interestingly, awareness of price stability as the primary objective of the ECB's monetary policy does not seem to affect inflation expectations directly once we control for trust, individuals' socio-demographic characteristics and their interest in economic topics. Our study indicates that central banks can influence households' inflation expectations through building trust and educating the public about their targets.

Suggested Citation

  • Mellina, Sathya & Schmidt, Tobias, 2018. "The role of central bank knowledge and trust for the public's inflation expectations," Discussion Papers 32/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdps:322018
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    Cited by:

    1. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Jakob de Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2024. "Central Bank Communication with the General Public: Promise or False Hope?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 62(2), pages 425-457, June.
    2. Niţoi, Mihai & Pochea, Maria-Miruna, 2024. "Trust in the central bank, financial literacy, and personal beliefs," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    3. Brouwer, Nils & de Haan, Jakob, 2022. "The impact of providing information about the ECB’s instruments on inflation expectations and trust in the ECB: Experimental evidence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    4. Rumler, Fabio & Valderrama, María Teresa, 2020. "Inflation literacy and inflation expectations: Evidence from Austrian household survey data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 8-23.
    5. Beutel, Johannes & Metiu, Norbert & Stockerl, Valentin, 2021. "Toothless tiger with claws? Financial stability communication, expectations, and risk-taking," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 53-69.
    6. Mochhoury, Sarah, 2023. "Central bank communication and trust: an experimental study on the European Central Bank and the general public," Working Paper Series 2824, European Central Bank.
    7. Stanisławska, Ewa & Paloviita, Maritta, 2021. "Medium- vs. short-term consumer inflation expectations: Evidence from a new euro area survey," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 10/2021, Bank of Finland.
    8. Dräger, Lena & Nghiem, Giang, 2023. "Inflation Literacy, Inflation Expectations, and Trust in the Central Bank: A Survey Experiment," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277587, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    9. Brouwer, Nils & de Haan, Jakob, 2022. "Trust in the ECB: Drivers and consequences," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    10. Angino, Siria & Secola, Stefania, 2022. "Instinctive versus reflective trust in the European Central Bank," Working Paper Series 2660, European Central Bank.
    11. Ehrmann, Michael & Georgarakos, Dimitris & Kenny, Geoff, 2023. "Credibility gains from communicating with the public: evidence from the ECB’s new monetary policy strategy," Working Paper Series 2785, European Central Bank.
    12. Carin van der Cruijsen & Anna Samarina, 2021. "Trust in the ECB in turbulent times," Working Papers 722, DNB.
    13. Bańnkowska, Katarzyna & Borlescu, Ana Maria & Charalambakis, Evangelos & Da Silva, António Dias & Di Laurea, Davide & Dossche, Maarten & Georgarakos, Dimitris & Honkkila, Juha & Kennedy, Neale & Kenny, 2021. "ECB Consumer Expectations Survey: an overview and first evaluation," Occasional Paper Series 287, European Central Bank.
    14. Niizeki, Takeshi, 2023. "Trust in the central bank and inflation expectations: Experimental evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation Expectations; Trust; Economic Knowledge; Central Bank Communications; European Central Bank; Deutsche Bundesbank;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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