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The impact of providing information about the ECB’s instruments on inflation expectations and trust in the ECB: Experimental evidence

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  • Brouwer, Nils
  • de Haan, Jakob

Abstract

We use a randomized controlled trial among Dutch households to analyze whether communication about ECB policy instruments impacts inflation expectations and trust in the ECB. All participants in the survey receive information about the ECB’s goal, but only a subset also receives information about how the ECB tries to achieve this. Our results suggest that individuals who are informed about one of the ECB’s policy instruments have inflation expectations closer to the ECB’s inflation target than individuals who only receive information about the ECB’s objective. Our results indicate that communication about ECB instruments does not impact trust in the ECB.

Suggested Citation

  • Brouwer, Nils & de Haan, Jakob, 2022. "The impact of providing information about the ECB’s instruments on inflation expectations and trust in the ECB: Experimental evidence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:73:y:2022:i:c:s0164070422000295
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2022.103430
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    Cited by:

    1. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Jakob de Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2024. "Central Bank Communication with the General Public: Promise or False Hope?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 62(2), pages 425-457, June.
    2. Niţoi, Mihai & Pochea, Maria-Miruna, 2024. "Trust in the central bank, financial literacy, and personal beliefs," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    3. Kučerová, Zuzana & Pakši, Daniel & Koňařík, Vojtěch, 2024. "Macroeconomic fundamentals and attention: What drives european consumers’ inflation expectations?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 48(1).
    4. Hayo, Bernd & Méon, Pierre-Guillaume, 2024. "Preaching to the agnostic: Inflation reporting can increase trust in the central bank but only among people with weak priors," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    5. Moritz Grebe & Peter Tillmann, 2022. "Household Expectations and Dissent Among Policymakers," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202226, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    6. Grebe, Moritz & Tillmann, Peter, 2022. "Household expectations and dissent among policymakers," IMFS Working Paper Series 169, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    7. Brouwer, Nils & de Haan, Jakob, 2022. "Trust in the ECB: Drivers and consequences," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    8. Federico M. Ferrara & Donato Masciandaro & Manuela Moschella & Davide Romelli, 2023. "What do politicians think of technocratic institutions? Experimental Evidence on the European Central Bank," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 23201, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    9. Palmisano, Flaviana & Sacchi, Agnese, 2024. "Trust in public institutions, inequality, and digital interaction: Empirical evidence from European Union countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    10. Hayo, Bernd & Méon, Pierre-Guillaume, 2023. "Measuring Household Inflation Perceptions and Expectations: The Effect of Guided vs Non-Guided Inflation Questions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    11. de Haan, Jakob & Hoogduin, Lex, 2024. "ECB communication policies: An overview and comparison with the Federal Reserve," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    12. Muhammed Bulutay, 2024. "Better than Perceived? Correcting Misperceptions about Central Bank Inflation Forecasts," Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers 0034, Berlin School of Economics.
    13. Lee, Neil & Pardy, Martina & Mcneil, Andrew, 2024. "The political impact of inflation: a survey experiment," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 123926, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    14. Grebe, Moritz & Tillmann, Peter, 2023. "Household Expectations and Dissent Among Policymakers," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277657, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    15. Ehrmann, Michael & Georgarakos, Dimitris & Kenny, Geoff, 2023. "Credibility gains from communicating with the public: evidence from the ECB’s new monetary policy strategy," Working Paper Series 2785, European Central Bank.
    16. Yiyuan Rong & Yanping Hou, 2022. "Farmers’ Willingness to Participate in Voluntary Field Water Management Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Projects Based on a Context–Attitude–Behavior Framework," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-15, November.
    17. Carin van der Cruijsen & Anna Samarina, 2021. "Trust in the ECB in turbulent times," Working Papers 722, DNB.
    18. Syngjoo Choi & Bongseob Kim & Young-Sik Kim & Ohik Kwon, 2023. "Central Bank Digital Currency and Privacy: A Randomized Survey Experiment," BIS Working Papers 1147, Bank for International Settlements.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Central bank; Communication; General public; Trust; RCT;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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