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What is the Investment Loss due to Uncertainty?

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  • Theodore Panagiotidis

    (University of Macedonia)

  • Panagiotis Printzis

Abstract

We investigate the effect of uncertainty on investment. We employ a unique dataset of 25000 Greek firms’ balance sheets for 14 years covering the period before and after the eurozone crisis. A dynamic factor model is employed to proxy uncertainty. The investment performance of 14 sectors is examined within a dynamic investment model. Robust GMM estimates of the investment rate model reveal a high degree of heterogeneity among these sectors. Overall uncertainty affects negatively investment performance and this effect substantially increased in the years of crisis. Agriculture and Mining are the least affected and the most affected ones include Manufacturing, Real Estate and Hotels. Focusing on the response of investment to uncertainty, it emerges that (relative) smaller firms are affected more compared to larger ones.

Suggested Citation

  • Theodore Panagiotidis & Panagiotis Printzis, 2019. "What is the Investment Loss due to Uncertainty?," Working Papers 383, Leibniz Institut für Ost- und Südosteuropaforschung (Institute for East and Southeast European Studies).
    • Handle: RePEc:ost:wpaper:383
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    2. Chisiridis, Konstantinos & Mouratidis, Kostas & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2022. "The north-south divide, the euro and the world," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    3. Akron, Sagi & Demir, Ender & Díez-Esteban, José María & García-Gómez, Conrado Diego, 2022. "How does uncertainty affect corporate investment inefficiency? Evidence from Europe," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    4. Matthew W Clance & Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta & Clement Kweku Kyei, 2020. "Predicting firm-level volatility in the United States: the role of monetary policy uncertainty," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 9(3), pages 167-177.
    5. Belke, Ansgar & Frenzel Baudisch, Coletta & Göcke, Matthias, 2020. "Interest rate bands of inaction and play-hysteresis in domestic investment – Evidence for the Euro Area," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 19-39.
    6. Azqueta-Gavaldon, Andres, 2023. "Political referenda and investment: Evidence from Scotland," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    7. Panagiotidis, Theodore & Printzis, Panagiotis, 2021. "Investment and uncertainty: Are large firms different from small ones?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 302-317.
    8. Rola Elkabbani & Christian Richter & Mona ElBannan, 2020. "Determining dividend payouts of the MENA banking industry: a probit approach," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 9(3), pages 221-229.
    9. Thomas A. Alexopoulos & Henry Thompson, 2021. "A macroeconomic simulation for Greece in the wake of its government debt crisis," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 699-716, August.
    10. Laliotis, Ioannis, 2019. "Did the economic adjustment programmes deliver wage flexibility in Greece?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 102653, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Greek firms; Uncertainty; Volatility; GMM; Panel data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D92 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice, Investment, Capacity, and Financing
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies

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