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Economic Uncertainties and their Impact on Activity in Greece compared with Ireland and Portugal

Author

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  • Jan-David Schneider

    (OECD)

  • Claude Giorno

    (OECD)

Abstract

Uncertainty faced by households and firms affects economic activity. The rise in uncertainty since the beginning of the sovereign debt crisis in Greece could be one factor that has contributed to the steep and long-lasting recession. This paper presents a brief empirical analysis quantifying this phenomenon and compares it with developments in Ireland and Portugal. Overall, this analysis shows that the uncertainty impact on growth has been relatively small in Greece between 2008 and 2013, although stronger than in Ireland or Portugal. This quantification appears to be robust to various specification changes of the vector auto regressive models developed for this exercise. This working paper relates to the 2013 Economic Survey of Greece (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/greece) Les incertitudes économiques et leur impact sur l'activité en Grèce comparés avec l'Irlande et le Portugal Les incertitudes auxquelles sont confrontés les ménages et les entreprises affectent l’activité économique. La montée des incertitudes depuis le début de la crise de la dette souveraine en Grèce semble avoir été l’un des facteurs qui a contribué à la récession forte et prolongée du pays. Cet article présent une brève analyse empirique qui quantifie ce phénomène et le compare avec les développements enregistrés en Irlande et au Portugal. Au total, cette analyse montre que l’impact de l’incertitude sur la croissance a été relativement modeste en Grèce entre 2008 et 20013, bien que plus fort qu’en Irlande et au Portugal. Cette quantification apparaît robuste aux divers changements de spécifications du modèle vectoriel autorégressif développé pour cet exercice. Ce Document de travail se rapporte à l’Étude économique de l’OCDE de la Grèce, 2013 (www.oecd.org/eco/etudes/grece)

Suggested Citation

  • Jan-David Schneider & Claude Giorno, 2014. "Economic Uncertainties and their Impact on Activity in Greece compared with Ireland and Portugal," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1151, OECD Publishing.
    • Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1151-en
    DOI: 10.1787/5jz0zb5h7ff2-en
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    Cited by:

    1. Cristina Manteu & Sara Serra, 2017. "Impact of uncertainty measures on the Portuguese economy," Working Papers w201709, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    2. Panagiotidis, Theodore & Printzis, Panagiotis, 2020. "What is the investment loss due to uncertainty?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    3. Cristina Manteu & Sara Serra, 2017. "Impact of uncertainty measures on the Portuguese economy," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    4. Basile, Roberto & Girardi, Alessandro, 2018. "Uncertainty and Business Cycle: A Review of the Literature and Some Evidence from the Spanish Economy/Incertidumbre y Ciclo Empresarial: Revisión de la literatura y evidencia en la economía española," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 36, pages 235-250, Enero.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    activity; activité; confiance; confidence; consommation privée; GDP; Greece; Grèce; incertitude; investissement; investment; Ireland; Irlande; modèle vectoriel autorégressif; PIB; Portugal; Portugal; private consumption; simulation; simulations; uncertainty; vector auto regressive model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E25 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes

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