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Why Has the Euro Been Falling? An Investigation into the Determinants of the Exchange Rate

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  • Hans-Werner Sinn
  • Frank Westermann

Abstract

This paper reconsiders the determinants of the exchange rate by studying the historical episode after the fall of the Iron Curtain. Testing a modified portfolio balance model, we attribute the strength of the deutschmark in the early nineties and the puzzling decline of the euro during its virtual existence to changes in the demand for deutschmarks in eastern Europe and to variations in the demand for black money balances in Europe as a whole. We reject the view that the strength of the dollar and the weakness of the euro reflect the prosperity of the US and the weakness of the European economy on both theoretical and empirical grounds.

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  • Hans-Werner Sinn & Frank Westermann, 2001. "Why Has the Euro Been Falling? An Investigation into the Determinants of the Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 8352, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8352
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    1. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Martin Evans and Richard K. Lyons, 2002. "Are Different-Currency Assets Imperfect Substitutes?," Working Papers gueconwpa~02-02-12, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
    3. Gebhard Flaig & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Wolfgang Meister & Oscar-Erich Kuntze & Andrea Gebauer & Erich Langmantel & Martin Meurers & Monika Ruschinski & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2003. "ifo Konjunkturprognose 2004: Erholung hat begonnen," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(24), pages 16-42, December.
    4. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017. "Are Different-Currency Assets Imperfect Substitutes?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 10, pages 415-456, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Kaltenhäuser, Bernd, 2001. "Explaining the Dollar-Euro rate: Do stock market returns mater?," CFS Working Paper Series 2001/06, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    6. Hans-Werner Sinn & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Wolfgang Meister, 2001. "Vor der Talsohle," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 54(24), pages 27-42, January.
    7. Ding, Liang & Ma, Jun, 2013. "Portfolio reallocation and exchange rate dynamics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 3100-3124.
    8. Kari Heimonen, 2006. "Time-Varying Fundamentals of the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 385-407.
    9. Mr. Guy M Meredith, 2001. "Why Has the Euro Been so Weak?," IMF Working Papers 2001/155, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Bergsten, C. Fred, 2002. "The euro versus the dollar: will there be a struggle for dominance?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 307-314, July.
    11. Frank Westermann, 2023. "On the Geographical Dispersion of Euro Currency Trading: An Analysis of the First 20 Years and a Comparison to the RMB," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 65(2), pages 263-287, June.
    12. Helmut Stix, 2001. "Survey Results about Foreign Currency Holdings in Five Central and Eastern European Countries," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 2(03), pages 41-48, February.
    13. Vlaar, Peter J.G., 2007. "GDP growth and currency valuation: The case of the dollar," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(8), pages 1424-1449, December.
    14. Kari Heimonen, 2009. "The euro–dollar exchange rate and equity flows," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(4), pages 202-209, October.
    15. Heimonen, Kari, 2009. "The euro-dollar exchange rate and equity flows," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 202-209, October.
    16. David Leuwer & Bernd Süssmuth, 2013. "The Exchange Rate Susceptibility of Some European Core Industries and the Currency Union," CESifo Working Paper Series 4253, CESifo.
    17. Leuwer, David & Süßmuth, Bernd, 2017. "The exchange rate susceptibility of European core industries, 1995-2010," Working Papers 147, University of Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science.
    18. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Jarko Fidrmuc & Maria Silgoner, 2008. "Fundamentals, the exchange rate and prospects for the current and future EU enlargements: evidence from Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania and Turkey," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 35(2), pages 195-211, April.

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    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money

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