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Fundamentals, the exchange rate and prospects for the current and future EU enlargements: evidence from Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania and Turkey

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  • Jesús Crespo Cuaresma
  • Jarko Fidrmuc
  • Maria Silgoner

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  • Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Jarko Fidrmuc & Maria Silgoner, 2008. "Fundamentals, the exchange rate and prospects for the current and future EU enlargements: evidence from Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania and Turkey," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 35(2), pages 195-211, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:empiri:v:35:y:2008:i:2:p:195-211
    DOI: 10.1007/s10663-007-9057-9
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    1. Hans-Werner Sinn & Frank Westermann, 2001. "Why Has the Euro Been Falling?," CESifo Working Paper Series 493, CESifo.
    2. Hans-Werner Sinn & Frank Westermann, 2001. "Why Has the Euro Been Falling? An Investigation into the Determinants of the Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 8352, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
    4. MacDonald, Ronald, 1998. "What determines real exchange rates?: The long and the short of it," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 117-153, June.
    5. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2003. "Experience of and Lessons from Exchange Rate Regime in Emerging Economies," NBER Working Papers 10032, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Bruno Merlevede & Joseph Plasmans & Bas van Aarle, 2003. "A Small Macroeconomic Model of the EU-Accession Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 221-250, July.
    7. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48.
    8. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408.
    9. Nikolay Gueorguiev, 2003. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Romania," IMF Working Papers 2003/130, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Jesús Crespo‐Cuaresma & Jarko Fidrmuc & Ronald MacDonald, 2005. "The monetary approach to exchange rates in the CEECs," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 13(2), pages 395-416, April.
    11. International Monetary Fund, 2004. "Bulgaria: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix," IMF Staff Country Reports 2004/177, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Mr. Christoph Duenwald & Nikolay Gueorguiev & Ms. Andrea Schaechter, 2005. "Too Much of a Good Thing? Credit Booms in Transition Economies: The Cases of Bulgaria, Romania, and Ukraine," IMF Working Papers 2005/128, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Atish R. Ghosh & Anne-Marie Gulde & Holger C. Wolf, 2000. "Currency boards: More than a quick fix?," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 15(31), pages 270-335.
    14. Gian Maria Milesi Ferretti & Assaf Razin, 2000. "Current Account Reversals and Currency Crises: Empirical Regularities," NBER Chapters, in: Currency Crises, pages 285-323, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. International Monetary Fund, 2000. "Bulgaria: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix," IMF Staff Country Reports 2000/064, International Monetary Fund.
    16. International Monetary Fund, 2000. "Bulgaria: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix," IMF Staff Country Reports 2000/054, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Billmeier, Andreas & Bonato, Leo, 2004. "Exchange rate pass-through and monetary policy in Croatia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 426-444, September.
    18. Peter C. B. Phillips & Mico Loretan, 1991. "Estimating Long-run Economic Equilibria," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(3), pages 407-436.
    19. Rolf Larsson & Johan Lyhagen & Mickael Lothgren, 2001. "Likelihood-based cointegration tests in heterogeneous panels," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 4(1), pages 1-41.
    20. Groen, Jan J. J., 2000. "The monetary exchange rate model as a long-run phenomenon," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 299-319, December.
    21. Mr. Ronald MacDonald & Mr. Peter B. Clark, 1998. "Exchange Rates and Economic Fundamentals: A Methodological Comparison of BEERs and FEERs," IMF Working Papers 1998/067, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Egert, Balazs, 2005. "Equilibrium exchange rates in South Eastern Europe, Russia, Ukraine and Turkey: Healthy or (Dutch) diseased?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 205-241, June.
    2. repec:zbw:bofitp:2005_003 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Nedeljković, Milan & Urošević, Branko, 2012. "Determinants of the Dinar-Euro Nominal Exchange Rate," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 121-141, September.
    4. Mikael Bask & Jarko Fidrmuc, 2009. "Fundamentals and Technical Trading: Behavior of Exchange Rates in the CEECs," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(5), pages 589-605, November.
    5. Mihai Rebiga, 2010. "Is Romania Ready for Adopting Euro?," Studies and Scientific Researches. Economics Edition, "Vasile Alecsandri" University of Bacau, Faculty of Economic Sciences, issue 15.
    6. Egert, Balazs, 2005. "Equilibrium exchange rates in South Eastern Europe, Russia, Ukraine and Turkey: Healthy or (Dutch) diseased?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 205-241, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate; Macroeconomic fundamentals; Transition economies; F31; P33; P52;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • P33 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - International Trade, Finance, Investment, Relations, and Aid
    • P52 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems - - - Comparative Studies of Particular Economies

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