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Intergenerational Mobility in American History: Accounting for Race and Measurement Error

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  • Zachary Ward

Abstract

A large body of evidence finds that relative mobility in the US has declined over the past 150 years. However, long-run mobility estimates are usually based on white samples and therefore do not account for the limited opportunities available for non-white families. Moreover, historical data measure the father’s status with error, which biases estimates toward greater mobility. Using linked census data from 1850-1940, I show that accounting for race and measurement error can double estimates of intergenerational persistence. Updated estimates imply that there is greater equality of opportunity today than in the past, mostly because opportunity was never that equal.

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  • Zachary Ward, 2021. "Intergenerational Mobility in American History: Accounting for Race and Measurement Error," NBER Working Papers 29256, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29256
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    1. Torsten Santavirta & Jan Stuhler, 2024. "Name-Based Estimators of Intergenerational Mobility," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 134(663), pages 2982-3016.
    2. Juliana Jaramillo-Echeverri, 2024. "Movilidad social en la educación: el caso de la Universidad de los Andes en Colombia entre 1949 y 2018," Cuadernos de Historia Económica 61, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Eric A. Hanushek & Babs Jacobs & Guido Schwerdt & Rolf van der Velden & Stan Vermeulen & Simon Wiederhold, 2021. "The Intergenerational Transmission of Cognitive Skills: An Investigation of the Causal Impact of Families on Student Outcomes," NBER Working Papers 29450, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Escamilla-Guerrero, David & Kosack, Edward & Ward, Zachary, 2021. "Life after crossing the border: Assimilation during the first Mexican mass migration," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    5. Paul Schüle, 2023. "Career Preferences and Socio-Economic Background," ifo Working Paper Series 395, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    6. Antonie, Luiza & Inwood, Kris & Minns, Chris & Summerfield, Fraser, 2022. "Intergenerational Mobility in a Mid-Atlantic Economy: Canada, 1871–1901," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 82(4), pages 1003-1029, December.
    7. Corinth, Kevin & Larrimore, Jeff, 2024. "Has Intergenerational Progress Stalled? Income Growth over Five Generations of Americans," IZA Discussion Papers 16807, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Krzysztof Karbownik & Anthony Wray, 2019. "Educational, Labor-market and Intergenerational Consequences of Poor Childhood Health," NBER Working Papers 26368, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Tyler Anbinder & Dylan Connor & Cormac Ó Gráda & Simone Wegge, 2021. "The Problem of False Positives in Automated Census Linking: Evidence from Nineteenth-Century New York's Irish Immigrants," Working Papers 202114, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    10. Raj Chetty & Will Dobbie & Benjamin Goldman & Sonya R. Porter & Crystal S. Yang, 2024. "Changing Opportunity: Sociological Mechanisms Underlying Growing Class Gaps and Shrinking Race Gaps in Economic Mobility," Working Papers 24-38, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    11. Kevin C. Corinth & Jeff Larrimore, 2024. "Has Intergenerational Progress Stalled? Income Growth Over Five Generations of Americans," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-007, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Zafar, Rafia, 2022. "Intergenerational Mobility in Income and Consumption: Evidence from Indonesia," SocArXiv uzcfs, Center for Open Science.
    13. Paul Schüle, 2024. "Essays in Public Economics and on Equality of Opportunity," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 108.
    14. William J. Collins & Ariell Zimran, 2023. "Working Their Way Up? US Immigrants' Changing Labor Market Assimilation in the Age of Mass Migration," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 238-269, July.
    15. Antonie, Luiza & Inwood, Kris & Minns, Chris & Summerfield, Fraser, 2021. "Intergenerational mobility in a mid-Atlantic economy: Canada, 1871-1901," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 108411, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    16. Zhu, Ziming, 2022. "Like father like son? Intergenerational immobility in England, 1851-1911," Economic History Working Papers 117588, London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Economic History.
    17. Martha J. Bailey & Peter Z. Lin, 2024. "Marital Matching and Women’s Intergenerational Mobility in the Late 19th and Early 20th Century US," NBER Chapters, in: The Economic History of American Inequality: New Evidence and Perspectives, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Hwang, Sam Il Myoung & Squires, Munir, 2024. "Linked samples and measurement error in historical US census data," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).

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    JEL classification:

    • J62 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Job, Occupational and Intergenerational Mobility; Promotion
    • N31 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913
    • N32 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-

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