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Energy based estimation of the Shadow Economy: The role of Governance Quality

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Abstract

The shadow economy (SE) is a pathological normalcy, not only in developing countries but also in developed ones, causing disagreeable distortions in the real economy. In this paper, we estimate the size of the informal sector in nineteen countries of the European Union (EU) by implementing three variations of the physical input approach (we use electricity consumption as input). All estimates show that EU countries experience high shadow economy levels with a decreasing trend. Moreover, we assess the explanatory power of three governance quality indicators of the informal sector using a set of panel regression specifications as well as a set of quantile regression specifications. Both approaches show that overall governance quality is the most prominent factor in determining the SE levels. Given the inherent advantage of quantile regression to identify impact differentiations across the conditional distribution of the dependent variable a significant policy action is revealed. In particular, countries with high shadow economy levels can reduce their informal sector, at an increasing rate, by improving governance quality.

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  • Dimitrios Psychoyios & Olympia Missiou & Theologos Dergiades, 2019. "Energy based estimation of the Shadow Economy: The role of Governance Quality," Discussion Paper Series 2019_07, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Nov 2019.
    • Handle: RePEc:mcd:mcddps:2019_07
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    2. Achim, Monica Violeta & Postea, Mihaela Maria & Noja, Gratiela Georgiana, 2024. "New estimate of shadow economy based on the total energy consumption. Evidence from the European Union countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    3. Friedrich Schneider & Mangirdas Morkunas & Erika Quendler, 2021. "Measuring the Immeasurable: The Evolution of the Size of Informal Economy in the Agricultural Sector in the EU-15 up to 2019," CESifo Working Paper Series 8937, CESifo.
    4. Md. Harun Ur Rashid & Noman Uddin & Md. Shariful Haque & Syed Zabid Hossain, 2022. "Good governance and tax evasion: mediating effect of socioeconomic conditions," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 759-776, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Shadow economy; Energy; Panel and Quantile regression; Governance quality.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E26 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Informal Economy; Underground Economy
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

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