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Drivers of the Underground Economy around the Millienium: A Long Term Look for the United States

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  • Goel, Rajeev K.

    (Illinois State University)

  • Saunoris, James W.

    (Eastern Michigan University)

  • Schneider, Friedrich

    (University of Linz)

Abstract

This paper provides a long term analysis of the determinants of the shadow economy. Using data for the United States over the years 1870–2014 we examine economic and political factors driving the underground sector. Results show that among the economic factors, greater economic prosperity increased the shadow sector, while greater openness to trade and a bigger government reduced it, with the effects of inflation being statistically insignificant. Politically, the efficacy of presidential vetoes and the effect of congressional party homogeneity are statistically insignificant. Further, the U.S. shadow economy increased during both world wars, but was lower during the great depression. However, in the short run, the relationship between the shadow economy and its determinants exhibit some remarkable differences.

Suggested Citation

  • Goel, Rajeev K. & Saunoris, James W. & Schneider, Friedrich, 2017. "Drivers of the Underground Economy around the Millienium: A Long Term Look for the United States," IZA Discussion Papers 10857, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10857
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    Cited by:

    1. Owolabi, Adegboyega O. & Berdiev, Aziz N. & Saunoris, James W., 2022. "Is the shadow economy procyclical or countercyclical over the business cycle? International evidence," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 257-270.
    2. Omodero Cordelia Onyinyechi, 2019. "The Financial and Economic Implications of Underground Economy: The Nigerian Perspective," Academic Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies, Sciendo, vol. 8(2), pages 155-167, July.
    3. Aziz N. Berdiev & Brandon Gomes & James W. Saunoris, 2023. "Revisiting the nexus between globalisation and the shadow economy: Untying the influences of de jure versus de facto globalisation," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(1), pages 27-54, January.
    4. Rajeev K. Goel & James W. Saunoris & Friedrich Schneider, 2019. "Growth In The Shadows: Effect Of The Shadow Economy On U.S. Economic Growth Over More Than A Century," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 37(1), pages 50-67, January.
    5. Aziz N. Berdiev & James W. Saunoris, 2019. "Globalization and Informal Entrepreneurship: A Cross-Country Analysis," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 47(1), pages 65-80, March.
    6. Stephen Esaku, 2022. "Institutionalized democracy and the shadow economy in the short- and long-run: empirical analysis from Uganda," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-12, December.
    7. Chletsos, Michael & Sintos, Andreas, 2021. "Hide and seek: IMF intervention and the shadow economy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 292-319.
    8. Canh Phuc Nguyen & Binh Nguyen Quang & Thanh Dinh Su, 2023. "Institutional frameworks and the shadow economy: new evidence of colonial history, socialist history, religion, and legal systems," Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, Springer;Associazione Amici di Economia e Politica Industriale, vol. 50(3), pages 647-675, September.
    9. Salmon Mugoda & Stephen Esaku & Rose Kibuka Nakimu & Edward Bbaale & Robert Read, 2020. "The portrait of Uganda’s informal sector: What main obstacles do the sector face?," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 1843255-184, January.
    10. Mara, Eugenia Ramona, 2021. "Drivers of the shadow economy in European Union welfare states: A panel data analysis," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 309-325.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    shadow economy; underground economy; determinants; taxation; inflation; openness; world war; great depression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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