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The "emersion" effect: an ex post and ex ante social program evaluation on labor tax evasion in Italy

Author

Listed:
  • Edoardo Di Porto

    (MEMOTEF, Department "Sapienza" University of Rome and EQUIPPE USTL/Lille)

  • Leandro Elia

    (Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen European Commission-Joint Research Centre)

  • Cristina Tealdi

    (IMT School for Advanced Studies Lucca)

Abstract

We analyze how different policy interventions may incentive the transition of workers from the informal to the formal sector. We use Italian data over the period 1998-2008 to evaluate ex post whether the 2003 Italian labor market reform was able to reach the objective to reduce the share of shadow employment. Based on our empirical results, we develop an ex ante evaluation based on a search and matching model, á la Mortensen and Pissarides to determine the right combination of policy interventions which may be effective in generating a significant reduction in undeclared work together with an expansion of the formal sector. We find that in an economy where permanent and temporary contracts coexist, the combination of lower payroll taxes for permanent jobs and higher probability of being audited generates a compression of the informal sector, leaving unemployment unchanged. A similar result can be obtained through a reduction of the firing cost associated with permanent jobs, even though this causes temporary contracts to increase relatively more than permanent contracts.

Suggested Citation

  • Edoardo Di Porto & Leandro Elia & Cristina Tealdi, 2013. "The "emersion" effect: an ex post and ex ante social program evaluation on labor tax evasion in Italy," Working Papers 2/2013, IMT School for Advanced Studies Lucca, revised Jun 2013.
    • Handle: RePEc:ial:wpaper:2/2013
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Paolo Di Caro & Giuseppe Nicotra, 2016. "Short, Long and Spatial Dynamics of Informal Employment," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(11), pages 1804-1818, November.
    2. Miroslava Kostova Karaboytcheva & Carolina Silva Cassorla, 2015. "The shadow economy: a relevant factor for investment decisions in selected European Union countries," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 39(3), pages 305-323.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Labor tax evasion; temporary contracts; firing costs; search frictions; policy evaluation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J38 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Public Policy
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance

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