IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedrwp/13-15.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Learning about fiscal policy and the effects of policy uncertainty

Author

Abstract

The recent crisis in the United States has often been associated with substantial amounts of policy uncertainty. In this paper we ask how uncertainty about fiscal policy affects the impact of fiscal policy changes on the economy when the government tries to counteract a deep recession. The agents in our model act as econometricians by estimating the policy rules for the different fiscal policy instruments, which include distortionary tax rates. ; Comparing the outcomes in our model to those under full-information rational expectations, we find that assuming the agents are not instantaneously aware of the new fiscal policy regime (or policy rule) in place leads to substantially more volatility in the short run and persistent differences in average outcomes

Suggested Citation

  • Josef Hollmayr & Christian Matthes, 2013. "Learning about fiscal policy and the effects of policy uncertainty," Working Paper 13-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedrwp:13-15
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.richmondfed.org/publications/research/working_papers/2013/pdf/wp13-15.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Leeper, Eric M. & Plante, Michael & Traum, Nora, 2010. "Dynamics of fiscal financing in the United States," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 156(2), pages 304-321, June.
    2. Thorsten Drautzburg & Harald Uhlig, 2015. "Fiscal Stimulus and Distortionary Taxation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(4), pages 894-920, October.
    3. Mitra, Kaushik & Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2013. "Policy change and learning in the RBC model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 1947-1971.
    4. Timothy Cogley & Riccardo Colacito & Thomas J. Sargent, 2007. "Benefits from U.S. Monetary Policy Experimentation in the Days of Samuelson and Solow and Lucas," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 67-99, February.
    5. Cogley, Timothy & Matthes, Christian & Sbordone, Argia M., 2015. "Optimized Taylor rules for disinflation when agents are learning," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 131-147.
    6. Scott R. Baker & Nick Bloom & Steven J. Davis & John Van Reenen, 2012. "Economic Recovery and Policy Uncertainty," CEP US Election Analysis Papers 002, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    7. Benhabib, Jess & Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2014. "Liquidity traps and expectation dynamics: Fiscal stimulus or fiscal austerity?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 220-238.
    8. Eusepi, Stefano & Preston, Bruce, 2011. "Learning the fiscal theory of the price level: Some consequences of debt-management policy," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 358-379.
    9. Christian Matthes & Argia M. Sbordone & Timothy Cogley, 2011. "Optimal Disinflation Under Learning," 2011 Meeting Papers 74, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. Thorsten Drautzburg & Harald Uhlig, 2015. "Fiscal Stimulus and Distortionary Taxation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(4), pages 894-920, October.
    11. Gasteiger, Emanuel & Zhang, Shoujian, 2014. "Anticipation, learning and welfare: the case of distortionary taxation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 113-126.
    12. Cogan, John F. & Cwik, Tobias & Taylor, John B. & Wieland, Volker, 2010. "New Keynesian versus old Keynesian government spending multipliers," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 281-295, March.
    13. Albert Marcet & Juan P. Nicolini, 2003. "Recurrent Hyperinflations and Learning," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(5), pages 1476-1498, December.
    14. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Pablo Guerrón-Quintana & Keith Kuester & Juan Rubio-Ramírez, 2015. "Fiscal Volatility Shocks and Economic Activity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(11), pages 3352-3384, November.
    15. Caprioli, Francesco, 2015. "Optimal fiscal policy under learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 101-124.
    16. , G., 2013. "Managing pessimistic expectations and fiscal policy," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 8(1), January.
    17. Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2012. "Debt, Policy Uncertainty, And Expectations Stabilization," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(4), pages 860-886, August.
    18. Giannitsarou, Chryssi, 2006. "Supply-side reforms and learning dynamics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 291-309, March.
    19. Benhabib, Jess & Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2014. "Liquidity traps and expectation dynamics: Fiscal stimulus or fiscal austerity?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 220-238.
    20. Born, Benjamin & Pfeifer, Johannes, 2014. "Policy risk and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 68-85.
    21. Davig, Troy & Leeper, Eric M. & Walker, Todd B., 2010. ""Unfunded liabilities" and uncertain fiscal financing," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(5), pages 600-619, July.
    22. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393, Elsevier.
    23. Thomas J. Sargent & Noah Williams, 2005. "Impacts of Priors on Convergence and Escapes from Nash Inflation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 360-391, April.
    24. Martin Kliem & Alexander Kriwoluzky, 2014. "Toward a Taylor Rule for Fiscal Policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 17(2), pages 294-302, April.
    25. In-Koo Cho & Ken Kasa, 2012. "Model Validation and Learning," Discussion Papers dp12-07, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
    26. Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2005. "Drift and Volatilities: Monetary Policies and Outcomes in the Post WWII U.S," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 262-302, April.
    27. Thomas Sargent & Noah Williams & Tao Zha, 2006. "Shocks and Government Beliefs: The Rise and Fall of American Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1193-1224, September.
    28. Mitra, Kaushik & Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2012. "Fiscal policy and learning," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 5/2012, Bank of Finland.
    29. Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo, 2009. "Can News about the Future Drive the Business Cycle?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1097-1118, September.
    30. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : I. The basic neoclassical model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 195-232.
    31. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
    32. Milani, Fabio, 2007. "Expectations, learning and macroeconomic persistence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 2065-2082, October.
    33. Koop, Gary & Leon-Gonzalez, Roberto & Strachan, Rodney W., 2009. "On the evolution of the monetary policy transmission mechanism," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 997-1017, April.
    34. Thorsten Drautzburg & Harald Uhlig, 2015. "Fiscal Stimulus and Distortionary Taxation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(4), pages 894-920, October.
    35. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2012. "Has Economic Policy Uncertainty Hampered the Recovery?," Book Chapters, in: Lee E. Ohanian & John B. Taylor & Ian J. Wright (ed.), Government Policies and the Delayed Economic Recovery, chapter 3, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
    36. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2012_005 is not listed on IDEAS
    37. Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2005. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 821-852.
    38. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2012. "Has Economic Policy Uncertainty Hampered the Recovery?," Book Chapters, in: Lee E. Ohanian & John B. Taylor & Ian J. Wright (ed.), Government Policies and the Delayed Economic Recovery, chapter 3, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
    39. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Huffman, Gregory W, 1988. "Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 402-417, June.
    40. Giuseppe Pagano Giorgianni & Valeria Patella, 2024. "Belief distortions and Disagreement about Inflation," Working Paper series 24-08, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    41. Harald Uhlig, 2010. "Some Fiscal Calculus," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 30-34, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jang, Tae-Seok & Sacht, Stephen, 2017. "Modeling consumer confidence and its role for expectation formation: A horse race," Economics Working Papers 2017-04, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    2. Troy Davig & Andrew Foerster, 2019. "Uncertainty and Fiscal Cliffs," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(7), pages 1857-1887, October.
    3. Han, Zhao, 2021. "Low-frequency fiscal uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 639-657.
    4. Richter, Alexander W. & Throckmorton, Nathaniel A., 2015. "The consequences of an unknown debt target," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 76-96.
    5. Tae-Seok Jang & Stephen Sacht, 2022. "Macroeconomic dynamics under bounded rationality: on the impact of consumers’ forecast heuristics," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 17(3), pages 849-873, July.
    6. Yi Zhang & Mengyang Wang & Tao Shi & Huan Huang & Qi Huang, 2023. "Health Damage of Air Pollution, Governance Uncertainty and Economic Growth," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(4), pages 1-21, February.
    7. Aye, Goodness C., 2021. "Short and Long Run Asymmetric Effects of Monetary and Fiscal Policy Uncertainty on Economic Activity in the U.S," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 74(1), pages 83-96.
    8. Hollmayr, Josef & Matthes, Christian, 2015. "Tales of transition paths: Policy uncertainty and random walks," Discussion Papers 14/2015, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    9. Alymkulova Nargiza Bakytovna & Atabaev Nurlan Uzgenovich & Ganiev Junus Mashrapovich, 2016. "Var - analysis of Global financial economic crisis impact on public budget and unemployment: evidence from the economy of the Kyrgyz Republic," Экономика региона, CyberLeninka;Федеральное государственное бюджетное учреждение науки «Институт экономики Уральского отделения Российской академии наук», vol. 12(4), pages 1090-1101.
    10. Caprioli, Francesco, 2015. "Optimal fiscal policy under learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 101-124.
    11. Hollmayr, Josef & Kühl, Michael, 2019. "Learning about banks’ net worth and the slow recovery after the financial crisis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    12. Goodness C. Aye, 2019. "Fiscal Policy Uncertainty and Economic Activity in South Africa: An Asymmetric Analysis," Working Papers 201922, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    13. La Torre, Davide & Marsiglio, Simone & Mendivil, Franklin & Privileggi, Fabio, 2021. "Generalized Fractal Transforms with Condensation: a Macroeconomic-Epidemiological Application," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 202107, University of Turin.
    14. Hunjra, Ahmed Imran & Azam, Muhammad & Bruna, Maria Giuseppina & Verhoeven, Peter & Al-Faryan, Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh, 2022. "Sustainable development: The impact of political risk, macroeconomic policy uncertainty and ethnic conflict," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    15. Muhammad Shafiullah & Usman Khalid & Sajid M. Chaudhry, 2022. "Do stock markets play a role in determining COVID‐19 economic stimulus? A cross‐country analysis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(2), pages 386-408, February.
    16. Josef Hollmayr & Michael Kuehl, 2016. "Imperfect Information about Financial Frictions and Consequences for the Business Cycle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 22, pages 179-207, October.
    17. Hollmayr, Josef & Matthes, Christian, 2014. "Dynamics of Monetary-Fiscal Interaction under Learning," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100609, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    18. Goodness C. Aye, 2019. "Short and Long Run Asymmetric Effects of Monetary and Fiscal Policy Uncertainty on Economic Activity in the U.S," Working Papers 201923, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    19. Nargiza Alymkulova & Nurlan Atabaev & Junus Ganiev, 2016. "Var — analysis of global financial economic crisis impact on public budget and unemployment: evidence from the economy of the Kyrgyz republic," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(4), pages 1090-1101.
    20. McClung, Nigel, 2020. "E-stability vis-à-vis determinacy in regime-switching models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hollmayr, Josef & Matthes, Christian, 2015. "Tales of transition paths: Policy uncertainty and random walks," Discussion Papers 14/2015, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    2. Cloyne, James S, 2011. "Government spending shocks, wealth effects and distortionary taxes," MPRA Paper 41689, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Lemoine, Matthieu & Lindé, Jesper, 2023. "Fiscal stimulus in liquidity traps: Conventional or unconventional policies?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    4. Ercolani, Valerio & Valle e Azevedo, João, 2014. "The effects of public spending externalities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 173-199.
    5. Born, Benjamin & Peter, Alexandra & Pfeifer, Johannes, 2013. "Fiscal news and macroeconomic volatility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2582-2601.
    6. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja & Kaushik Mitra, 2022. "Expectations, Stagnation, And Fiscal Policy: A Nonlinear Analysis," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1397-1425, August.
    7. Thomas Brand, 2017. "Vitesse et composition des ajustements budgétaires en équilibre général : une analyse appliquée à la zone euro," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 68(HS1), pages 159-182.
    8. Han, Zhao, 2021. "Low-frequency fiscal uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 639-657.
    9. Francesco Bianchi & Leonardo Melosi, 2017. "Escaping the Great Recession," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(4), pages 1030-1058, April.
    10. Quaghebeur, Ewoud, 2019. "Learning And The Size Of The Government Spending Multiplier," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(8), pages 3189-3224, December.
    11. Eric M. Leeper & Nora Traum & Todd B. Walker, 2017. "Clearing Up the Fiscal Multiplier Morass," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(8), pages 2409-2454, August.
    12. Nora Traum & Shu‐Chun S. Yang, 2015. "When Does Government Debt Crowd Out Investment?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(1), pages 24-45, January.
    13. Born, Benjamin & Pfeifer, Johannes, 2014. "Policy risk and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 68-85.
    14. Julio Carrillo & Celine Poilly, 2013. "How do financial frictions affect the spending multiplier during a liquidity trap?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 16(2), pages 296-311, April.
    15. Eddie Gerba & Klemens Hauzenberger, 2013. "Estimating US Fiscal and Monetary Interactions in a Time Varying VAR," Studies in Economics 1303, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    16. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio & Fernandez-Corugedo, Emilio, 2014. "Uncertainty in a model with credit frictions," Bank of England working papers 496, Bank of England.
    17. Hollmayr, Josef & Matthes, Christian, 2014. "Dynamics of Monetary-Fiscal Interaction under Learning," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100609, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    18. Giambattista, Eric & Pennings, Steven, 2017. "When is the government transfer multiplier large?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 525-543.
    19. Giambattista,Eric & Pennings,Steven Michael, 2017. "When is the government transfer multiplier large ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8184, The World Bank.
    20. Jesús Rodríguez-López & Mario Solís-García, 2020. "On the Magnitude of the Expenditure Multiplier," Working Papers 20.05, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedrwp:13-15. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christian Pascasio (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbrius.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.