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Real exchange rate forecasting and ppp: this time the random walk loses

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  • Michele Ca' Zorzi
  • Jakub Muck
  • Michal Rubaszek

Abstract

This paper brings four new insights into the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) debate. First, we show that a half-life PPP (HL) model is able to forecast real exchange rates better than the random walk (RW) model at both short and long-term horizons. Second, we find that this result holds if the speed of adjustment to the sample mean is calibrated at reasonable values rather than estimated. Third, we find that it is preferable to calibrate, rather than to elicit as a prior, the parameter determining the speed of adjustment to PPP. Fourth, for most currencies in our sample, the HL model outperforms the RW also in terms of nominal effective exchange rate forecasting.

Suggested Citation

  • Michele Ca' Zorzi & Jakub Muck & Michal Rubaszek, 2015. "Real exchange rate forecasting and ppp: this time the random walk loses," Globalization Institute Working Papers 229, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:feddgw:229
    DOI: 10.24149/gwp229
    Note: Published as: Ca' Zorzi, Michele, Jakub Muck and Michal Rubaszek (2015), "Real Exchange Rate Forecasting and PPP: This Time the Random Walk Loses," Open Economies Review 27 (3): 585-609.
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    3. Adrian Marek Burda & Blazej Mazur & Mateusz Pawel Pipien, 2017. "Forecasting EUR/PLN Exchange Rate: the Role of Purchasing Power Parity Hypothesis in ESTVEC Models," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 17, pages 97-114.
    4. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    5. Shaowen Luo, 2023. "Risk and return in the foreign exchange market: Measurement without VARs," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 64-81, April.
    6. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D. & Pascual, Antonio Garcia & Zhang, Yi, 2019. "Exchange rate prediction redux: New models, new data, new currencies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 332-362.
    7. Zorzi, Michele Ca’ & Rubaszek, Michał, 2020. "Exchange rate forecasting on a napkin," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    8. Ca’ Zorzi, Michele & Kolasa, Marcin & Rubaszek, Michał, 2017. "Exchange rate forecasting with DSGE models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 127-146.
    9. Ca’ Zorzi, Michele & Rubaszek, Michał, 2023. "How many fundamentals should we include in the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate model?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    10. Piotr Dybka, 2020. "One model or many? Exchange rates determinants and their predictive capabilities," KAE Working Papers 2020-053, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
    11. Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Brahim, Mariem & Carlotti, Jean-Etienne & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Mensi, Walid, 2024. "Extreme downside risk connectedness and portfolio hedging among the G10 currencies," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    12. Michał Chojnowski & Piotr Dybka, 2017. "Is Exchange Rate Moody? Forecasting Exchange Rate with Google Trends Data," Econometric Research in Finance, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis, vol. 2(1), pages 1-21, June.
    13. Nyoni, Thabani, 2019. "An ARIMA analysis of the Indian Rupee/USD exchange rate in India," MPRA Paper 96908, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Rubaszek, Michał & Beckmann, Joscha & Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Kwas, Marek, 2022. "Boosting carry with equilibrium exchange rate estimates," Working Paper Series 2731, European Central Bank.
    15. Maria Eleftheriou & Nikolas A. Müller-Plantenberg, 2018. "The Purchasing Power Parity Fallacy: Time to Reconsider the PPP Hypothesis," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 481-515, July.
    16. Christina Anderl & Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2021. "Nonlinearities and asymmetric adjustment to PPP in an exchange rate model with inflation expectations," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 49(6), pages 937-959, August.
    17. Reaz, Md & Mahat, Fauziah & Dahir, Ahmed Mohamed & Sahabuddin, Mohammad & Al Mahi, Abu Saad Md Masnun, 2017. "Exchange rate volatility and financial performance of agriculture firms in Malaysia: An empirical analysis using GARCH, wavelet and system GMM," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center (PRADEC), vol. 13(3).
    18. Jackson, Karen & Magkonis, Georgios, 2024. "Exchange rate predictability: Fact or fiction?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).

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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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