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Monetary Policy and the Predictability of Nominal Exchange Rates

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  • Rebelo, Sérgio
  • Eichenbaum, Martin
  • Johannsen, Benjamin

Abstract

This paper studies how the monetary policy regime affects the relative importance of nominal exchange rates and inflation rates in shaping the response of real exchange rates to shocks. We document two facts about inflation-targeting countries. First, the current real exchange rate predicts future changes in the nominal exchange rate. Second, the real exchange rate is a poor predictor of future inflation rates. We estimate a medium-size DSGE open-economy model that accounts quantitatively for these facts as well as other empirical properties of real and nominal exchange rates. The key estimated shocks that accounts for the dynamics of exchange rates and their covariance with inflation are disturbances to the foreign demand for dollar-denominated bonds.

Suggested Citation

  • Rebelo, Sérgio & Eichenbaum, Martin & Johannsen, Benjamin, 2017. "Monetary Policy and the Predictability of Nominal Exchange Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 11844, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11844
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Currency forecasting; Taylor rule;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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