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Estimating end-use demand: A Bayesian approach

Author

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  • Bauwens, Luc
  • Fiebig, Denzil G.
  • Steel, Mark F.J.

Abstract

Eliminating negative end-use or appliance consumption estimates and incorporating direct metering information into the process of generating these estimates; these are two important aspects, of conditional demand analysis (CDA) that will be the focus of this raper. In both cases a Bayesian approach seems a natural way of proceeding. What needs to be investigated is whether it is also a viable and effective approach. In addition, such a framework naturally lends itself to prediction. Our application involves the estimation of electrical appliance consumptions for a sample of Australian households. This application is designed to illustrate the viability of a full Bayesian analysis of the problem.

Suggested Citation

  • Bauwens, Luc & Fiebig, Denzil G. & Steel, Mark F.J., 1992. "Estimating end-use demand: A Bayesian approach," UC3M Working papers. Economics 2839, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    • Handle: RePEc:cte:werepe:2839
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    1. Papineau, Maya & Yassin, Kareman & Newsham, Guy & Brice, Sarah, 2021. "Conditional demand analysis as a tool to evaluate energy policy options on the path to grid decarbonization," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    2. Bodil M. Larsen & Runa Nesbakken, 2003. "How to quantify household electricity end-use consumption," Discussion Papers 346, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    3. Bartels, Robert & Fiebig, Denzil G., 1995. "Optimal design in end-use metering experiments," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 305-309.
    4. Zhang, Fan, 2011. "Distributional impact analysis of the energy price reform in Turkey," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5831, The World Bank.
    5. Li, Wenliang & Zhou, Yuyu & Cetin, Kristen & Eom, Jiyong & Wang, Yu & Chen, Gang & Zhang, Xuesong, 2017. "Modeling urban building energy use: A review of modeling approaches and procedures," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 2445-2457.
    6. Hanne Marit Dalen and Bodil M. Larsen, 2015. "Residential End-use Electricity Demand: Development over Time," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4).
    7. Muhammad Akmal & David I. Stern, 2001. "The structure of Australian residential energy demand," Working Papers in Ecological Economics 0101, Australian National University, Centre for Resource and Environmental Studies, Ecological Economics Program.
    8. Brabec, Marek & Konár, Ondrej & Pelikán, Emil & Malý, Marek, 2008. "A nonlinear mixed effects model for the prediction of natural gas consumption by individual customers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 659-678.
    9. Aydinalp-Koksal, Merih & Ugursal, V. Ismet, 2008. "Comparison of neural network, conditional demand analysis, and engineering approaches for modeling end-use energy consumption in the residential sector," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 85(4), pages 271-296, April.
    10. Hanne Marit Dalen & Bodil M. Larsen, 2013. "Residential end-use electricity demand. Development over time," Discussion Papers 736, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    11. Hannah Goozee, 2017. "Energy, Poverty and Development: A Primer for the Sustainable Development Goals," Working Papers id:11933, eSocialSciences.
    12. Fan Zhang, 2015. "Energy Price Reform and Household Welfare: The Case of Turkey," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    13. Muhammad Akmal & David I. Stern, 2001. "Residential energy demand in Australia: an application of dynamic OLS," Working Papers in Ecological Economics 0104, Australian National University, Centre for Resource and Environmental Studies, Ecological Economics Program.
    14. Muhammad, Akmal, 2002. "The structure of consumer energy demand in Australia: an application of a dynamic almost ideal demand system," 2002 Conference (46th), February 13-15, 2002, Canberra, Australia 125050, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    15. Brencic, Vera & Young, Denise, 2009. "Time-saving innovations, time allocation, and energy use: Evidence from Canadian households," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(11), pages 2859-2867, September.
    16. Larsen, Bodil Merethe & Nesbakken, Runa, 2004. "Household electricity end-use consumption: results from econometric and engineering models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 179-200, March.

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    Keywords

    End-use demand;

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