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Rationalizing rational expectations: Characterizations and tests

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  • Xavier D'Haultfoeuille
  • Christophe Gaillac
  • Arnaud Maurel

Abstract

In this paper, we build a new test of rational expectations based on the marginal distributions of realizations and subjective beliefs. This test is widely applicable, including in the common situation where realizations and beliefs are observed in two different data sets that cannot be matched. We show that whether one can rationalize rational expectations is equivalent to the distribution of realizations being a mean‐preserving spread of the distribution of beliefs. The null hypothesis can then be rewritten as a system of many moment inequality and equality constraints, for which tests have been recently developed in the literature. The test is robust to measurement errors under some restrictions and can be extended to account for aggregate shocks. Finally, we apply our methodology to test for rational expectations about future earnings. While individuals tend to be right on average about their future earnings, our test strongly rejects rational expectations.

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  • Xavier D'Haultfoeuille & Christophe Gaillac & Arnaud Maurel, 2021. "Rationalizing rational expectations: Characterizations and tests," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 12(3), pages 817-842, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:quante:v:12:y:2021:i:3:p:817-842
    DOI: 10.3982/QE1724
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    8. Conti, G.; & Giustinelli, P.;, 2022. "For Better or Worse? Subjective Expectations and Cost-Benefit Trade-Offs in Health Behavior: An Application to Lockdown Compliance in the United Kingdom," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 22/14, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
    9. Yifan Gong & Todd Stinebrickner & Ralph Stinebrickner & Yuxi Yao, 2022. "The Role of Non-Pecuniary Considerations: Locations Decisions of College Graduates from Low Income Backgrounds," University of Western Ontario, Centre for Human Capital and Productivity (CHCP) Working Papers 20221, University of Western Ontario, Centre for Human Capital and Productivity (CHCP).
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