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Academic Performance and College Dropout: Using Longitudinal Expectations Data to Estimate a Learning Model

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Abstract

We estimate a dynamic learning model of college dropout, taking advantage of unique expectations data to greatly reduce our reliance on standard assumptions. Our simulations show that forty-five percent of dropout in the first two years of college can be attributed to what students learn about their academic performance, with this type of learning playing a smaller role later in college. Poorly performing students tend to leave because staying is not worthwhile, rather than because they are at risk of failing out of school. Poor performance substantially decreases the enjoyability of school and substantially influences beliefs about post-college earnings.

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  • Ralph Stinebrickner & Todd Stinebrickner, 2013. "Academic Performance and College Dropout: Using Longitudinal Expectations Data to Estimate a Learning Model," University of Western Ontario, Centre for Human Capital and Productivity (CHCP) Working Papers 20135, University of Western Ontario, Centre for Human Capital and Productivity (CHCP).
    • Handle: RePEc:uwo:hcuwoc:20135
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I20 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - General
    • I21 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Analysis of Education
    • I23 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Higher Education; Research Institutions
    • J01 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics: General
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

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