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Revisiting speculative hyperinflations in monetary models

Author

Listed:
  • Maurice Obstfeld

    (University of California, Berkeley)

  • Kenneth Rogoff

    (Harvard University)

Abstract

This paper revisits the debate on ruling out speculative hyperinflations in monetary models. Although apparently a narrow issue, studying these extreme economies turns out to be quite illuminating in understanding the fundamentals of price level determination. It is also relevant in evaluating the broader claims that advocates of the fiscal theory of the price level have made. In Obstfeld and Rogoff (1983, 1986) we show that in pure fiat money models with rational expectations, where the government gives no backing whatsoever to currency, there is in fact no reasonable way to rule out speculative hyperinflations where the value of money goes to zero, even if the money supply itself is exogenous and constant. Such perverse equilibria are ruled out, however, if the government provides even a very small real backing to the currency – a fiscal mechanism, but one that comes into play only as a backstop. Indeed that backing does not have to be certain. Cochrane (2011, 2019), however, argues that this result is wrong, and that fractional currency backing is a Maginot line that is insufficient to rule out hyperinflation. We show here why, in fact, his analysis involves a subtle change in model specification that adds a distinct monetary fragility to our model. Our baseline analysis uses a canonical money-in-the-utility-function setup due to Brock (1974, 1975), but following Wallace (1981), we show the same results go through in an overlapping-generations model of money. (Copyright: Elsevier)

Suggested Citation

  • Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2021. "Revisiting speculative hyperinflations in monetary models," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 40, pages 1-11, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:issued:20-336
    DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2020.08.004
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    Cited by:

    1. Gaballo, Gaetano & Mengus, Eric, 2023. "Myopic fiscal objectives and long-Run monetary efficiency," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 1-17.
    2. Jose De Gregorio, 2021. "Las Criptomonedas: Una Mirada Esceptica y los Desafios a la Industria Financiera y Banca Central," Working Papers wp521, University of Chile, Department of Economics.
    3. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Harold James & Jean-Pierre Landau, 2019. "The Digitalization of Money," NBER Working Papers 26300, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Obstfeld, Maurice, 2021. "Two challenges from globalization," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    5. Behzad Diba & Olivier Loisel, 2024. "Revisiting Speculative Hyperinflations in Monetary Models: A Rejoinder," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 52, pages 64-69, April.
    6. Giancarlo Corsetti & Bartosz Maćkowiak, 2024. "Gambling to Preserve Price (and Fiscal) Stability," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 72(1), pages 32-57, March.
    7. Obstfeld, Maurice, 2021. "Reprint: Two challenges from globalization," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    8. George-Marios Angeletos & Chen Lian, 2021. "Determinacy without the Taylor Principle," NBER Working Papers 28881, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asset bubbles; Fiscal theory of the price level; Hyperinflation; Money demand; Government budget constraint;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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