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Reductions in commuting mobility correlate with geographic differences in SARS-CoV-2 prevalence in New York City

Author

Listed:
  • Stephen M. Kissler

    (Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health)

  • Nishant Kishore

    (Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health)

  • Malavika Prabhu

    (Weill Cornell Medicine)

  • Dena Goffman

    (Columbia University Irving Medical Center)

  • Yaakov Beilin

    (Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai
    Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai)

  • Ruth Landau

    (Columbia University Irving Medical Center)

  • Cynthia Gyamfi-Bannerman

    (Columbia University Irving Medical Center)

  • Brian T. Bateman

    (Brigham and Women’s Hospital)

  • Jon Snyder

    (Weill Cornell Medicine)

  • Armin S. Razavi

    (Weill Cornell Medicine)

  • Daniel Katz

    (Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai
    Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai)

  • Jonathan Gal

    (Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai)

  • Angela Bianco

    (Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai)

  • Joanne Stone

    (Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai)

  • Daniel Larremore

    (University of Colorado Boulder
    University of Colorado Boulder)

  • Caroline O. Buckee

    (Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health)

  • Yonatan H. Grad

    (Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health)

Abstract

SARS-CoV-2-related mortality and hospitalizations differ substantially between New York City neighborhoods. Mitigation efforts require knowing the extent to which these disparities reflect differences in prevalence and understanding the associated drivers. Here, we report the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in New York City boroughs inferred using tests administered to 1,746 pregnant women hospitalized for delivery between March 22nd and May 3rd, 2020. We also assess the relationship between prevalence and commuting-style movements into and out of each borough. Prevalence ranged from 11.3% (95% credible interval [8.9%, 13.9%]) in Manhattan to 26.0% (15.3%, 38.9%) in South Queens, with an estimated city-wide prevalence of 15.6% (13.9%, 17.4%). Prevalence was lowest in boroughs with the greatest reductions in morning movements out of and evening movements into the borough (Pearson R = −0.88 [−0.52, −0.99]). Widespread testing is needed to further specify disparities in prevalence and assess the risk of future outbreaks.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen M. Kissler & Nishant Kishore & Malavika Prabhu & Dena Goffman & Yaakov Beilin & Ruth Landau & Cynthia Gyamfi-Bannerman & Brian T. Bateman & Jon Snyder & Armin S. Razavi & Daniel Katz & Jonatha, 2020. "Reductions in commuting mobility correlate with geographic differences in SARS-CoV-2 prevalence in New York City," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-6, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:11:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-020-18271-5
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-18271-5
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    Cited by:

    1. Pablo D. Fajgelbaum & Amit Khandelwal & Wookun Kim & Cristiano Mantovani & Edouard Schaal, 2021. "Optimal Lockdown in a Commuting Network," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 503-522, December.
    2. Beria, Paolo & Lunkar, Vardhman, 2020. "Presence and mobility of the population during Covid-19 outbreak and lockdown in Italy," MPRA Paper 100896, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Javier Del-Águila-Mejía & David García-García & Ayelén Rojas-Benedicto & Nicolás Rosillo & María Guerrero-Vadillo & Marina Peñuelas & Rebeca Ramis & Diana Gómez-Barroso & Juan de Mata Donado-Campos, 2023. "Epidemic Diffusion Network of Spain: A Mobility Model to Characterize the Transmission Routes of Disease," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(5), pages 1-15, February.
    4. Xiao, Weiye & Li, Han & Yuan, Feng & Chen, Wen, 2024. "The 2-month lockdown and commuting behavior transformation in Shanghai: A phone signal data-based analysis," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 149-161.
    5. Wolff, Kevin T. & Intravia, Jonathan & Baglivio, Michael T. & Piquero, Alex R., 2022. "Violence in the Big Apple throughout the COVID-19 pandemic: A borough-specific analysis," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    6. Danial Owen & Daniel Arribas-Bel & Francisco Rowe, 2023. "Tracking the Transit Divide: A Multilevel Modelling Approach of Urban Inequalities and Train Ridership Disparities in Chicago," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-18, May.
    7. Chen, Ruoyu & Zhang, Min & Zhou, Jiangping, 2023. "Jobs-housing relationships before and amid COVID-19: An excess-commuting approach," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    8. Atul Pokharel & Robert Soulé & Avi Silberschatz, 2021. "A case for location based contact tracing," Health Care Management Science, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 420-438, June.

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