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Optimal Lockdown in a Commuting Network

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  • Schaal, Edouard
  • Fajgelbaum, Pablo
  • Khandelwal, Amit
  • Kim, Wookun
  • Mantovani, Cristiano

Abstract

We study optimal dynamic lockdowns against Covid-19 within a commuting network. Our framework combines canonical spatial epidemiology and trade models, and is applied to cities with varying initial viral spread: Seoul, Daegu and NYC-Metro. Spatial lockdowns achieve substantially smaller income losses than uniform lockdowns, and are not easily approximated by simple centrality-based rules. In NYM and Daegu—with large initial shocks—the optimal lockdown restricts inflows to central districts before gradual relaxation, while in Seoul it imposes low temporal but large spatial variation. Actual commuting responses were too weak in central locations in Daegu and NYM, and too strong across Seoul.

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  • Schaal, Edouard & Fajgelbaum, Pablo & Khandelwal, Amit & Kim, Wookun & Mantovani, Cristiano, 2020. "Optimal Lockdown in a Commuting Network," CEPR Discussion Papers 14923, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14923
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Covid-19; Lockdown; Commuting; Optimal policy; General equilibrium;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R38 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Government Policy
    • R4 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics
    • C6 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling

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