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Optimal Transparency and Risk-Taking to Avoid Currency Crises

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  • Christina E. Bannier
  • Frank Heinemann

Abstract

This paper reconsiders a central bank's problem of determining rules for information dissemination and risk-taking behavior that minimize the probability of currency crises. In a global-games approach, we find that optimal transparency is adversely related to prior market beliefs. In countries with pessimistic prior beliefs about economic performance, the central bank should commit to disclosing information with maximal precision. In addition, it should increase the risk of economic performance. For good prior expectations, posterior information should be of lower precision, depending on the variance of fundamentals. Here, the central bank can reduce the crisis probability by reducing that variance.

Suggested Citation

  • Christina E. Bannier & Frank Heinemann, 2005. "Optimal Transparency and Risk-Taking to Avoid Currency Crises," Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics (JITE), Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 161(3), pages 374-391, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:mhr:jinste:urn:sici:0932-4569(200509)161:3_374:otarta_2.0.tx_2-b
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Friedman, Daniel, 2009. "Speculative attacks: A laboratory study in continuous time," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1064-1082, October.
    2. Camille Cornand & Frank Heinemann, 2009. "Speculative Attacks with Multiple Sources of Public Information," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 111(1), pages 73-102, March.
    3. Toni Ahnert & Christoph Bertsch, 2022. "A Wake-Up Call Theory of Contagion [Asymmetric business cycles: theory and time-series evidence]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 26(4), pages 829-854.
    4. Philipp König & Kartik Anand & Frank Heinemann, 2013. "The ‘Celtic Crisis’: Guarantees, Transparency and Systemic Liquidity Risk," Staff Working Papers 13-31, Bank of Canada.
    5. Rochon, Celine, 2006. "Devaluation without common knowledge," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 470-489, December.
    6. Kasahara, Tetsuya, 2009. "Coordination failure among multiple lenders and the role and effects of public policy," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 183-198, June.
    7. König, Philipp & Anand, Kartik & Heinemann, Frank, 2014. "Guarantees, transparency and the interdependency between sovereign and bank default risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 321-337.
    8. Ahnert, Toni & Martinez-Miera, David, 2021. "Bank Runs, Bank Competition and Opacity," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242348, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    9. Szkup, Michal & Trevino, Isabel, 2015. "Information acquisition in global games of regime change," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 387-428.
    10. Szkup, Michal, 2020. "Multiplier effect and comparative statics in global games of regime change," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 15(2), May.
    11. Camille Cornand & Frank Heinemann, 2008. "Optimal Degree of Public Information Dissemination," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(528), pages 718-742, April.
    12. Szkup, Michal & Trevino, Isabel, 2020. "Sentiments, strategic uncertainty, and information structures in coordination games," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 534-553.
    13. Valipour Pasha , Mohammad & Ahmadian , Azam, 2019. "Electronic Banking Capacities and Transparency in the Iranian Banking Network," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 14(3), pages 367-388, July.
    14. Iachan, Felipe S. & Nenov, Plamen T., 2015. "Information quality and crises in regime-change games," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 158(PB), pages 739-768.
    15. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2013-025 is not listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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