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Commodity price cycles and financial pressures in African commodities exporters

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  • Kablan, Sandrine
  • Ftiti, Zied
  • Guesmi, Khaled

Abstract

In this study, we examine the interdependence between the credit and commodity price cycles among African commodity exporters. Specifically, we use an evolutionary co-spectral analysis that sets a time-varying dynamic correlation measure. Results of our analyses suggest that persistent commodity price shocks exert a greater impact on real economy than transitory fluctuations. Similar patterns can be derived for different types of commodities. During downswings, coherence is high for beverages and agricultural raw materials. In contrast, coherence for metals and oil is high during upswings. Periods of high coherence correspond to periods of financial pressure. As such, they can serve as indicators for impending financial crises.

Suggested Citation

  • Kablan, Sandrine & Ftiti, Zied & Guesmi, Khaled, 2017. "Commodity price cycles and financial pressures in African commodities exporters," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 215-231.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ememar:v:30:y:2017:i:c:p:215-231
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2016.05.005
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    3. Bilgili, Faik & Kassouri, Yacouba & Kuşkaya, Sevda & Majok Garang, Aweng Peter, 2024. "The dynamic nexus of oil price fluctuations and banking sector in China: A continuous wavelet analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
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    7. Marek Szturo & Bogdan Wlodarczyk & Konrad Szydlowski & Karol Wojtowicz & Sylwia Pienkowska-Kamieniecka & Ireneusz Miciula, 2021. "Default Risk of Listed Companies in the Context of the Threat to Commodity Markets in the Times of COVID-19 Pandemic," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(Special 1), pages 53-68.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Commodity price cycle; Credit cycle; African commodity exporters; Co-spectral analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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