CH+13+Day+1 2024

CH 13
Randomness to Probability:
The Basics
NOVEMBER 5, 2024
Probability: What is it, exactly?
 Semi-formal definition: The long-run relative frequency
(%) of an event occurring.
EX) If we flip a fair coin 5 times and get heads on 3 of those flips, we
wouldn’t be all that surprised (there is about 31% chance of this
particular outcome…how to find that will come later).
3 of 5 is 60%...is the probability of getting heads on any flip of a fair
coin 60%?
No…we know it’s ½ or 50%
So, 3 of 5 heads wouldn’t surprise us.
300 of 500 heads, though, would be very surprising (probability of this
is incredibly small…0.0000015, to be exact)
Probability: What is it, exactly?
 Why should we be surprised if we get 300 of 500 heads?
It’s the same ratio as 3 of 5, and we weren’t surprised by
that!
Small numbers of trials can have extreme results. If we
based the probability of getting heads on a single flip of the
coin, it would either be 100% (got heads) or 0% (didn’t get
heads).
As we increase the number of flips, the overall probability of
getting heads starts to get closer and closer to 50%. This is
an illustration of what is called the Law of Large Numbers.
LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS
 LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS: As the number of trials increase,
the long-run relative frequency of an event approaches its
true probability.
Notice that the

probability of getting
heads approaches 50%
as the number of trials
gets larger, and there is
little variance from that
with large numbers of
trials.
Terms and notation
 Independent events: Outcome of one trial does not change the outcome
of subsequent trials.
EX) The probability of getting heads on any given flip of a coin stays at 50%,
regardless of what happened on previous flips.
probability of event A
 For any event A, (Probability of 1 is certain to occur, probability of 0
could never occur)
: complement of event A (all outcomes not in event A)
EX) Consider rolling a fair die (outcomes of 1,2,3,4,5,6)
If event A is “rolling a number greater than 2”, then what is
is “rolling a 2 or less”
 Similarly,
Terms and notation
 Mutually exclusive (disjoint): Events that have no
outcomes in common.
EX) It is not possible for someone to have both type
O-negative blood and A-positive blood. If you have
one, you can’t have the other.
A word about the so-called
“Law of Averages”
 There’s no such thing…
 This is based on the flawed reasoning that an event that hasn’t occurred in an
unusually long time is “bound to happen.”
 EX) You flip a fair coin 8 times and get heads all 8 times.
 Are you “due for one to show up tails?”
 NOPE!
 The coin has absolutely no idea what has happened on the 8 previous flips. It
is no more or less likely to land “tails” on the 9th flip than it was on the first 8
flips. Each flip of the coin is independent of the others.
 If the first 8 flips of a fair coin come up heads, the probability of getting tails (or
heads) on the 9th flip is still 50%.
“or”
ADDITION RULE
 , provided events A and B are disjoint.
 EX) 28% of students at a school are seniors, 21% are
juniors, 29% are sophomores and the remainder are
freshmen. If one student is selected at random, what is
the probability that this student is a freshman or junior?
 Being a freshman and being a junior are disjoint
events.
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MUTUALLY
EXCLUSIVE AND INDEPENDENT
 Mutually exclusive events cannot be independent.
 Independent events: probabilities of each are fixed.
 Mutually exclusive: If one event occurs, the other one
cannot (its probability changes to 0).
 Going back to the student being a freshman or
junior, if the selected student is a freshman (22%
chance of this occurring), the probability that the
student is a junior is now 0.
MULTIPLICATION RULE
 Suppose you roll a fair die three times. What is the
probability that the number rolled is at least 3 each time?
 P(rolling at least a 3) = 4/6
 Each roll is independent of the others, so probabilities are
multiplied.
 P(at least a 3 on three consecutive rolls)
 NOTE: It is not a requirement to reduce fractions.

“and”
MULTIPLICATION RULE
 , provided events A and B are independent.
 EX) Opinion polling organizations used to contact
respondents primarily by landline telephone. Random
telephone numbers are generated, and interviewers try
to contact those households. In the late 1970s this
method could reach about 80% of U.S. households. By
2014, the successful contact rate had fallen to about 8%.
 It is reasonable to assume that responses from household
are independent of each other, since sampling is being
done nationwide.
SUCCESSFUL CONTACT CONTINUED
 1. What is the probability that an interviewer successfully

contacts the next two households on the list?
 2. What is the probability that the interviewer’s first

successful contact will be the fourth household on the
list?
 3 failures, then one successful contact
 3. What is the probability that the interviewer will make at

least one successful contact among the next 5 households on
the list?
OPTION 1: Brute force…find the following probabilities and add
them up.
(Not the recommended approach…there is an easier way)

 3. What is the probability that the interviewer will make at
least one successful contact among the next 5 households on
the list?
OPTION 2: Use the complement.
This is another way

of saying that the
interviewer failed all
five times.

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CH 13

Notice that the

 NOTE: It is not a requirement to reduce fractions.

 1. What is the probability that an interviewer successfully

 2. What is the probability that the interviewer’s first

 3. What is the probability that the interviewer will make at

(Not the recommended approach…there is an easier way)

This is another way

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