DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

THE BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION

Definition: A binomial experiment is one that possesses the following properties:
1. the experiment consists of n identical trials
2. each trial results in one of two outcomes, a success or a failure
3. the probability of success on a single trial is equal to p and remains the same from trial to trial
4. the probability of a failure is equal to q = 1 - p
5. the trials are independent, which means that the outcome of trials does not affect the outcomes of any
other trials.

Definition: The discrete probability distribution of the binomial random variable is given by

n!
P X x p x q n x , x 0,1,2,...n
(n x)! x!

Note:
1. If X follows a binomial distribution, then we write X~Bi (n,p).
2. P (X x) is called a cumulative probability of a random variable less than or equal to a particular value.
Example: Given a binomial random variable X with n = 10 and p = 0.30, find the following probabilities:
a. X is exactly 3 d. X is at most 8
b. X is at least 1 e. X is between 6 to 8
c. X is from 6 to 8

Exercises
1. A coin is tossed three times. If X is a random variable representing the number of heads that appeared, find the
probability distribution of X. Determine the probability that
a. 1 head appeared b. at least two heads appeared c.3 tails appeared
2. The probability that a certain production process will produce a defective part is 0.20. Find the probability that a lot
of 12 parts will contain
exactly 6 defectives b. 6 or 7 defectives.
3. The probability that a patient recovers from a rare blood disease is 0.40. If 15 people are known to have contracted
this disease, what is the probability that
a. at least 12 survive b. at most 13 survive
4. According to the Labor Department, 40% of adult workers have a high school diploma but did not attend college. If
15 adult workers are randomly selected, find the probability that at least 10 of them have high school diploma but did
not attend college.
5. Incompatibility is given as the legal reason for 55% of all divorce cases filed in a given county. Find the probability
that incompatibility will be given as the reason in four of the next 6 divorce cases filed in that country.
6. A study shows that 50% of the families in a certain large metropolitan area have at least two cars. Find the
probabilities that among 16 families randomly selected in this metropolitan area
a. exactly 9 have at least 2 cars; b. at most 6 have at least 2 cars;
7. In a certain city district, the need for money to buy drugs is given as the reason for 75% of all thefts. What is the
probability that exactly 2 of the next 4 theft cases reported in this district resulted from the need for money to buy
drugs?
8. Find the probability of getting exactly 5 girls in 10 births. Assume that the male and female births are equally likely
and that the birth of any child does not affect the probability of the gender of any other children.
9. Some field representative of the Environmental Protection Agency are doing spot checks of water pollution in
streams. Historically, 8 out of 10 such tests produce favorable results, that is, no pollution. The field group is going
to perform 6 tests and wants to know the chances of getting exactly 3 favorable results from this group of tests.
10. The probability that a certain kind of component will survive a given shock test is . Find the probability that
exactly 2 of the next 4 components tested survive.
11. A traffic control engineer reports that 75% of the vehicles passing through a check point are from within the state.
What is the probability that fewer than 4 of the next 9 vehicles are from out of the state.
Random Variables and Probability Distributions 1
12. Eighty percent of the graduates of a certain university who apply for a particular medical school are admitted.
This year, four graduates from the said university have applied for admission to the medical school. Find the
probability that only two of them are accepted.

13. Find the probability that in tossing a fair coin three times there will appear a) no heads b) 3 heads c) 2 heads
and 1 tail d) 2 tails and 1 head; and e) 3 tails.
14. What is the probability of getting a total of 9 a) no nines; b) 1 nine c) twice; and d) at least twice in 3 tosses of
a pair of dice?
15. A factory finds that, on average, 10% of the bubs produced by a given machine will be defective for certain
specified requirements. If 8 bulbs are selected at random from the days production of this machine, find the
probability a) that exactly 2 will be defective, b) that 2 or more will be defective, and c) that more than 5 will be
defective.
16. A professor of a law school observe that 25% of students who get admitted to the freshmen class reach fourth
year. Assuming that this is correct, find the probability that among 15 randomly selected first year students, a)
exactly 8 will reach fourth year; b) at most 5 will reach fourth year; and c) between 7 and 10, inclusive, will reach
fourth year.

THE POISSON DISTRIBUTION

The selection of samples usually is performed and related to a given time interval or to a specified region. These types
of experiments yielding to numerical values of a random variable X during a specified interval or region are called
Poisson experiments.
For events that occur randomly and independently with a Poisson random variable (number of success) X, with a
constant rate () per unit time or region, the probability distribution is called Poisson distribution and described by the
equation

e x
P( X x) p( x; )
x!
for x = 0,1,2,
where is the average number of successes occurring in a given time frame or a specified region, and e = 2.71828.

Poisson assumptions:
1. The probability that an event will occur in a short interval of time (or space) is proportional to the size of the
interval.
2. In a very small interval, the probability that two events will occur is close to zero.

3. The probability that any number of events will occur in a given interval is independent of where the interval
begins.

4. The probability of any number of events occurring over a given interval is independent of the number of
events that occurred prior to the interval.

Examples:
1. If a bank receives on the average 6 bad checks per day, what is the probability that it will receive 4 bad checks on
any given day?
2. If 5.6 imperfections can be expected per roll of a certain kind of cloth, what is the probability that a roll will have
three imperfections?

EXERCISES:
1. The average number of monthly breakdowns of a computer is 1.8. find the probabilities that this computer will
function for a month
a. without a breakdown
b. with only one breakdown
2. On the average, 8 people per hour use an express teller machine situated inside a commercial complex. What is
the probability that, during a selected Friday afternoon,
a. exactly 6 people will use the teller machine?
b. at most 4 people will use the machine?

Random Variables and Probability Distributions 2

3.The secretary of Obias, Ramos and Associates, a law firm, finds that there are on the average 5 calls from clients
per day. Find the probability that the firm will receive exactly 3 calls on a particular weekday.
4. A store owner complains that, on the average, 2 bottles per case of a certain brand of softdrink are underfilled.
Assuming this is correct, find the probability that a randomly chosen case of this drink will contain
a. at least 3 underfilled bottles
b. at most 4 underfilled bottles.
5. Assume that the number of network errors experienced in a day on a local area network (LAN) is distributed as a
Poisson random variable. The average number of network errors experienced in a day is two. What is the probability
that in any given day:
a. zero network errors will occur;
b. exactly one network error will occur?
c. Two or more network error will occur?
d. Fewer than 3 network errors will occur.
6. The quality control manager of Marilyns Cookies is inspecting a batch of chocolate-chip cookies that has just been
baked. If the production process is in control, the average number of chip parts per cookie is 6.
a. What is the probability that in any particular cookie being inspected fewer than 5 chip parts will be found?
b. What is the probability that in any particular cookie being inspected exactly 5 chip parts will be found?
c. What is the probability that in any particular cookie being inspected 5 or more chip parts will be found?
d. What is the probability that in any particular cookie being inspected 4 or 5 chip parts will be found?
7. The average number of radioactive particles passing through a counter during one millisecond in a laboratory
experiment is four. What is the probability that six particles enter the counter in a given millisecond?
8. The manager of DWEIN BANK records the arrival of customers and on the average; three costumers arrive per
minute at the bank during the noon to 1 P.M. hour.
a. What is the probability that in a given minute exactly two customers will arrive?
b. What is the probability that more than two customers will arrive in a given minute?
9. The average number of radioactive particles passing through a counter during 1 millisecond in a laboratory
experiment is 4. What is the probability that 6 particles enter the counter in a given millisecond?
10. The number of oil tankers arriving each day at a certain port city is known to be 10. The facilities at the port can
handle at most 15 tankers per day. What is the probability that on a given day tankers will have to be sent away?
11. An average of 2 cars arrives at a highway tollgate every 10 seconds. If this rate is approximated by a Poisson
process, what is the probability that exactly 3 cars will arrive in a 10 seconds period?
12. The number of cars arriving at a gasoline station follows a Poisson distribution, with a mean of 3 cars every 10
minutes. What is the probability that exactly a) 1 car, b) 2 cars, and c) 3 cars will arrive in the next 10 minutes?
13. Records show that the probability a tire will suffer a blowout in the next year is 0.001. If 200 tires are used for a
year, what is the probability of exactly 3 blowouts?
14. If approximately, 1 % of the people in a certain compound of 200 people are left-handed, find the probability that
exactly five people there are left-handed.
15. A telephone operator receives 3 calls per hour. Find the probability it will receive the following:
(a) at most 3 calls, (b) at least 4 calls, (c) four or more calls.

SUMMARY OF DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

Distribution Examples
BinomialPoisson 1. One engineering firm enjoys
2. For a certain 40% success
manufacturing rate the
industry, in number
The probability of the number
The probability of (x) that will
of success getting state government
of industrial construction
accidents averages contracts.
three per week.
successes x, given
occur n trials
in a given time period, area or This monthFindthey
thehave submitted
probability that bids
two on eight will occur in
accidents
P(X=x) = nCxp q
volume.
x (n-x)
construction projects
a given week. to be funded by the state
where: P(X=x) = e-x government. The bids
Success: for different
industrial projects are
accidents
n = no. of trials x! assessedxindependently
=2 of each other. Find the
x = no. ofwhere:
successes of interest probability
=that theweek
3 per firm will get five out of eight
p = probability
x = no.ofofsuccess
successes of interest contracts.
q = probability of failure = (constant)
e = 2.718281828 1p X= no. ofThe
government
probabilityconstruction
of the numbercontracts won
of accidents
= mean or average p= 40% = 0.4
(success) in a given week (time period)
q= 1 0.4 = 0.6
n= 8

The probability of the number of contracts won (x)

Random Variables and Probability Distributions 3 given the number of bids submitted (n)
CONTINUOUS PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTION

Distribution of the inter arrival time (time between two successive arrivals)

P (T t ) 1 e t

Where: P(Tt) - the probability that the service time T will be less than or equal to t

mean service rate
e 2.71828
Example:
1. Suppose the mean repair time of a microcomputer has been found to be 3 hours. What is the probability that
service on a faulty microcomputer will be completed in 2 or fewer hours?

Exercises:
1. Suppose that customers arrive at a banks ATM at the rate of 20 per hour. If a customer has just arrived, what is
the probability that the next customer will arrive within 6 minutes?
2. The maintenance manager of a certain company has only 4 hours available in which to install a new compressor in
the air conditioning unit before the next morning shift begins. The time required to install a new compressor is
exponentially distributed with a mean time of 2 hours. What is the probability that the installation will be completed
before the morning shift begins?
3. Dee is the proprietor of Dees Parrot World. Dees protg, Lei, has been learning how to handle the birds by doing
miscellaneous tasks for Dee. One of Leis jobs is cutting the parrots nails. This must be done carefully, because the
birds could bleed profusely if the nails were cut to the quick. When he first started the job, lei could trim the nails of 4
birds per hour on the average, but he can now do 6 birds per hour on the average. What is the probability that Lei
took at most 15 minutes to do one bird when he first started to work at Parrot World? What is the probability now?
4. A checkout counter at a supermarket completes the process according to an exponential distribution with a service
rate of 6 per hour. A customer arrives at the checkout counter. Find the probability of the following events.
a. The service is completed in fewer than 5 minutes
b. The customer leaves the checkout counter more than 10 minutes after arriving
c. The service is completed in a time between 5 and 8 minutes.

NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

Defintion: A continuous random variable X is said to be normally distributed if its density function is given by:
2
1 x
1 2( )
f ( x )= e
2

Random Variables and Probability Distributions 4

 For - < x < and for constant
and
, where - <
< ,
> 0 and e
2.71828... and

3.14159

Notation: If X follows the above distribution, we write X N( , 2 ).

The graph of the normal distribution is called the normal curve.

Properties:
1. The curve is bell shaped and symmetric about a vertical axis through the mean
.
2. The normal curve approaches the horizontal axis asymptotically as we proceed in either direction from the mean.
3. The total area under the curve and above the horizontal axis is equal to 1.

Definition: The distribution of a normal random variable with mean zero and standard deviation equal to 1 is
called a standard normal distribution.

2
If X N( , ), then X can be transformed into a standard normal random variable through the following

transformation,

X
Z=

Example:
1. Let Z be a standard normal variable. Find the following probabilities:
a. P ( Z < -1.05) c. P ( Z > - 0.75 )
b. P ( Z > 1.45) d. P ( -1.44 < Z < 0.00 )
2. Given a normal distribution with = 52 and 2= 36, find the probability that X assumes a value
a. less than 68
b. more than 80
c. between 65 and 90
3. Given the normally distributed random variable X with mean 18 and standard deviation 2.5, find
a. the value k such that P( X < k) = 0.4721
b. the value k such that P( X > k) = 0.9838
4. A normal distribution has a mean = 30 and standard deviation = 5.
a. Find the area above 30
b. Find the area below 23
c. Find the area between 24 and 31
5. A sample of 150 students was considered with a mean weight of 65 kilos and the standard deviation of 5 kilos.
Assume that the weights are normally distributed.
a. How many students weigh between 60 and 70 kilos?
b. What is the probability that a randomly selected male student weighs more than 72 kilos?
6. Sam, a market researcher, conducted a Usage Attitude and Image survey to measure the current rating (using a 5
point scale interval) of Rescaf coffee. He interviewed 1000 housewives in Metro Manila. The data he obtained was
normally distributed and the average rating of Rescaf coffee is 2.3 with standard deviation of 0.24. What is the
probability that Rescaf coffee will receive a rating of below 1.5?
7. In an aptitude test given to a group of 200 applicants, the average score was 75 and the standard deviation was 5.
If the scores are approximately normally distributed, how many applicants got scores below 70?
8. A process manufactures ball bearings whose diameters are normally distributed with mean 2.505 cm and standard
deviation 0.008 cm. Specifications call for the diameter to be in the interval 2.5 0.01 cm.
a. What proportion of the ball bearings will meet the specification?
b. The process can be recalibrated so that the mean will be equal to 2.5 cm, the center of the specification
interval. The standard deviation of the process remains 0.008 cm. What proportion of the diameters will meet
the specification?
Random Variables and Probability Distributions 5
Random Variables and Probability Distributions 6