Roki Sasaki

Dodgers Meet With Roki Sasaki

By Nick Deeds | December 28, 2024 at 7:24pm CDT

Reports regarding a number of clubs meeting with right-hander Roki Sasaki have trickled out in recent weeks, with the Mets, Yankees, Cubs, Giants, and Rangers all reportedly having received an in-person meeting with the right-hander as his unusual free agency begins to play out. Those five clubs have now been joined by a sixth, as Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register reports that the Dodgers have had an in-person meeting with the top international player available to teams this winter.

It’s hardly a surprise to hear that the Dodgers have met with the 23-year-old phenom. L.A. and San Diego have been viewed by many as clear favorites to land the right-hander since before it was clear he would be posted this winter and the chatter connecting Sasaki to the Dodgers in particular became loud enough that Sasaki’s agent, Joel Wolfe, issued a strong denial of the notion that a “handshake” agreement has already been reached with the club. MLBTR’s Steve Adams and Tim Dierkes were present for later comments by Wolfe regarding Sasaki’s free agency made at the Winter Meetings in Dallas, wherein Wolfe first revealed that a preliminary round of in-person visits at a central location would be taking place shortly after the Winter Meetings had come to a close. At the time, Wolfe noted that Sasaki planned to head back to Japan for a week or two afterwards to celebrate the holidays before returning for additional visits with teams ahead of the end of his posting window next month.

Given that timeline, any meetings that have occurred between Sasaki and teams to this point in the winter are likely to have been preliminary in nature, offering Sasaki an opportunity to become more familiar with the organizations he had at least some level of interest in. The reported group of six clubs to have reached that stage is not necessarily exhaustive, and it’s entirely possible that other clubs met with Sasaki prior to the holidays without the meeting being reported publicly. That could include the Padres, who have long been considered a potential front-runner for Sasaki’s services alongside the Dodgers.

The 23-year-old’s combination of incredible talent and unique circumstances figure to make him perhaps the single most sought-after player available this winter. The righty’s career 2.10 ERA in 394 2/3 NPB innings as a 23-year-old with his prime still ahead of him would surely land him firmly in the conversation for a massive payout in free agency on the heels of Sasaki’s countryman Yoshinobu Yamamoto landing a 12-year, $325MM deal with the Ddogers last winter via the posting system. That sort of financial windfall won’t be available to Sasaki, however, as he is less than 25 years old and is therefore considered an international amateur per the rules of MLB. That means he’ll be signing a minor league contract with a bonus restricted to the signing club’s international bonus pool space, a reality which essentially removes the financial advantages and disadvantages clubs normally contend with in free agency. Shohei Ohtani famously went through the same process when he first jumped to MLB, and in doing so surprised the baseball world by landing with the Angels.

Virtually any team could benefit from adding a pitcher with Sasaki’s talent to their rotation, and the Dodgers are of course no exception. Even after signing Blake Snell to a five-year deal earlier this winter with veteran Clayton Kershaw widely expected to reunite with the club later in the offseason, the Dodgers’ rotation is severely lacking in certainty. Snell, Kershaw, Ohtani, Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, Tony Gonsolin, and Dustin May is a formidable group of hurlers who could all generate All-Star caliber performances in 2025, but each has major injury concerns attached to them and cannot be counted on for anything close to 30 starts in a season. Adding Sasaki to the mix would give the club yet another high-quality rotation option to work with, and the on-paper excess of starting pitching options should make it easy for L.A. to manage the right-hander’s innings after he was slowed by shoulder and oblique injuries of his own in recent years while pitching for NPB’s Chiba Lotte Marines.

Tigers Moving Colt Keith To First Base

By Anthony Franco | December 27, 2024 at 8:22pm CDT

Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris met with reporters this afternoon, shortly after the team finalized its one-year deal with Gleyber Torres. The team provided video of the 16-minute media session.

Harris confirmed the Tigers will play Torres at second base. Colt Keith will move to first base. Harris indicated that Keith could return to the keystone in future years but noted that “for 2025, our best team has Gleyber at second base and Colt at first base.” Keith spent the entire ’24 campaign at second base, where he logged nearly 1100 innings as a rookie.

Keith’s defensive grades were mixed. Statcast rated him as a slightly above-average second baseman. Defensive Runs Saved was a lot less enthusiastic, estimating he was eight runs below par. Scouting reports on the 6’2″, 211-pound infielder have pegged him as a bat-first player. Keith may be a capable defender at the keystone but wasn’t likely to develop into a Gold Glove winner.

That was the youngster’s first full season as a second baseman. Keith was drafted as a third baseman and continued playing the hot corner until midway through the ’23 campaign. Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press wrote this morning that the Tigers weren’t willing to move Keith back to third base because of concerns about a prior labrum injury in his throwing shoulder.

Keith’s bat guarantees him a spot in the starting lineup. The lefty hitter had a .260/.309/.380 slash with 13 homers. Those numbers are weighed down by a terrible first few weeks. Keith had a .154/.222/.165 showing through the end of April. He hit .282/.328/.426 in 457 plate appearances from the start of May onward. Keith managed solid production against pitchers of either handedness. He should be in the lineup against almost all right-handed pitchers. Skipper A.J. Hinch could shield him from a few lefties, but the Tigers are unlikely to relegate Keith to a strict platoon role.

If the Tigers aren’t willing to play Keith on the left side of the infield, the Torres deal essentially forced him to first base. Torres has been a full-time second baseman since the Yankees moved him off shortstop in 2022. The Nationals showed interest in moving him to third base. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported last night — before Torres signed with Detroit — that the infielder rebuffed Washington because he didn’t want to change positions.

Between the infield shakeup and some early offseason chatter about the Tigers potentially pursuing a veteran first baseman, it’s fair to wonder if former first overall pick Spencer Torkelson still has a role on the roster. Unsurprisingly, Harris suggested publicly that remains the case. Detroit’s front office leader said he spoke with Torkelson before the Tigers announced the Torres signing. “My message to Tork was: ’if you have a big offseason and a big spring training, there’s a role for you on this team.’ This team needs more right-handed power and we’ve seen Tork do that in the past,” Harris said.

The Tigers have sought right-handed hitting since the start of the offseason. Torres addresses that to some extent, though he’s more a solid hitter than a great one. His 38-homer showing from 2019 looks like a clear outlier. Torres respectively hit 24 and 25 homers in 2022 and ’23. That dropped to 15 round-trippers this year, in part because of an ice cold April in which he didn’t hit a single home run.

Torkelson connected on 31 homers with a .233/.313/.446 slash line in 2023. A strong second half provided optimism coming into this year. Instead, he stumbled to a .219/.295/.374 mark with 10 homers through 92 games — struggles that led the Tigers to option Torkelson to Triple-A Toledo for a stretch. A change-of-scenery trade still seems a distinct possibility.

Kerry Carpenter should get the bulk of playing time at designated hitter. The lefty-swinging Carpenter will be in the lineup at either DH or in the corner outfield against all righty pitching. He’ll probably be shielded from left-handers, but carrying Torkelson as a short-side platoon bat with limited defensive value isn’t a great use of a roster spot. Harris said today that the Tigers don’t view Torkelson as a candidate for any reps at third base or in the corner outfield, though he opined that “with the DH plate appearances and opportunity at first base, there are still plenty of plate appearances for him.”

Justyn-Henry Malloy, a righty hitter, is also in the DH/first base mix. Malloy has been a high-OBP bat in the minors. He hit just .203/.291/.366 with eight homers in 71 MLB games as a rookie. He still has a full slate of minor league options, but he’s another hitter without a clear defensive fit and a limited major league track record.

The Tigers are one of a handful of teams that has been recently linked to the top unsigned position player, Alex Bregman. While the Torres signing doesn’t directly impact third base, it deepens the infield more generally. Harris declined comment on Bregman, as the CBA prohibits team personnel from saying whether they’re in or out on specific free agents.

He indicated there’ll be more moves on the horizon while suggesting he’s encouraged by how the roster is shaping up. “The roster isn’t done yet. It’s not even 2025 yet. There’s still some time in the offseason to fully flesh out our roster. But when I stare at our group right now, this is the deepest we’ve ever been — on both sides of the ball,” Harris said.

Since signing Alex Cobb, the Tigers have downplayed their desire for another starting pitcher. The exception is their pursuit of NPB star Roki Sasaki, who’ll be limited to a signing bonus below $10MM because of his status as an international amateur. Harris said that the Tigers have presented an initial presentation to Sasaki’s representatives at Wasserman. He indicated that the Tigers are awaiting a response from Sasaki’s camp as to whether they’ll get an in-person meeting after the holidays.

Agent Joel Wolfe suggested at the Winter Meetings that Sasaki, who took preliminary meetings with a handful of teams last week, would begin narrowing the field after returning to Japan for the holiday. The Tigers don’t seem a likely landing spot for Sasaki, but they’d certainly welcome an opportunity to make a pitch to the 23-year-old righty.

Rangers Met With Roki Sasaki, Giants “Believed To Have Met” With Sasaki As Well

By Leo Morgenstern | December 23, 2024 at 10:17pm CDT

Roki Sasaki won’t be eligible to officially sign with an MLB organization until mid-January, but that hasn’t stopped him from making headlines in December. Last week, it was reported that the NPB phenom had met with at least three MLB teams: the Yankees, Mets, and Cubs. Today, Rangers president of baseball operations Chris Young confirmed that representatives from his club met with Sasaki last week (per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News). Meanwhile, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports the Giants are “believed to have met” with Sasaki and his representatives.

It comes as no surprise that both teams are interested in Sasaki. The Giants could use more starting pitching, and they’re likely to add at least one starter this offseason, whether it’s Sasaki or someone else. The Rangers, on the other hand, already have a full rotation, but regardless, Sasaki is the kind of player any team would make room for. The two-time NPB All-Star is widely considered one of the most promising young pitchers in the world, and his earning potential is capped by the rules of international amateur free agency. As of right now, Texas can’t pay him any more than a $6,261,600 bonus, while San Francisco can’t offer him more than a $5,146,200 bonus.

The Rangers have long had an eye on Sasaki. At the beginning of the 2024 season, they were one of eight teams that reportedly sent representatives to watch Sasaki pitch in Japan. One can also understand why Sasaki would be interested in joining their club. Not only are the Rangers recent World Series winners, but they have been one of the most active teams this offseason on both the trade and free agent markets. Furthermore, Sasaki’s agent Joel Wolfe recently mentioned that Sasaki grew up “idolizing” numerous Japanese pitchers who made the jump from NPB to MLB. The first example Wolfe named was Yu Darvish, who signed with the Rangers when he first arrived stateside in 2012. Evan Grant points out that a pair of front office executives who were “key” in signing Darvish, assistant general manager Josh Boyd and Pacific Rim Operations Director Joe Furukawa, are still working in the organization.

As for the Giants, POBO Buster Posey has been particularly vocal about his interest in Sasaki. Speaking at the Winter Meetings, he told reporters (including Maria Guardado of MLB.com), “We’d be over the moon to add a guy like that.” While Posey only spoke of Sasaki’s talent, one has to presume he’s also captivated by the price tag. The Giants have been closely linked to free agent Corbin Burnes this winter. But Burnes is presumably looking to sign a contract worth well over $200MM. According to Susan Slusser, there are questions about whether or not ownership will be willing to foot that bill. In Sasaki, the Giants could add a top-of-the-rotation starter for a fraction of the market price.

From Sasaki’s point of view, it’s worth noting that San Francisco is much closer to Japan (and has a bigger Japanese population) than New York, Chicago, or Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington. Neither Sasaki nor Wolfe has suggested the pitcher has a geographic preference for where he signs, but Giants general manager Zack Minasian has expressed hope that San Francisco’s relative proximity to Japan will make “a big difference” (per Guardado). Minasian also mentioned the pitcher-friendly confines of Oracle Park as a potential draw. After all, Sasaki is used to pitching in a very different offensive environment – runs are harder to come by in NPB. What’s more, he is presumably looking to put up numbers that are as impressive as possible. Six years in the future, those numbers will help him cash in big as an unrestricted free agent.

Ultimately, we still know very little about what Sasaki’s thinking or where he might end up. The Dodgers and, to a lesser extent, the Padres are frequently cited as the front-runners to sign him, but it’s not for nothing that he has met with so many other teams. (Nor is it clear if he has met with either the Dodgers or Padres yet.) Slusser identifies the Diamondbacks as another NL West suitor for his services, though it’s unclear if he has met with anyone from the team. Meanwhile, the Phillies are the only club we know for certain has not met with Sasaki. Last week, POBO Dave Dombrowski revealed that although the Phillies would love to speak with Sasaki, they have not been invited to do so.

Mets Meet With Roki Sasaki

By Anthony Franco | December 20, 2024 at 2:15pm CDT

December 20: The Cubs are going to be meeting with Sasaki today, reports Bruce Levine of 670 The Score.

December 19: The Mets had a meeting with Roki Sasaki on Thursday, reports Andy Martino of SNY. They’re the second team that has been publicly revealed to meet with the NPB star. Yankees general manager Brian Cashman told reporters (including MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch) on Wednesday that Sasaki had scheduled an in-person meeting with the club. It’s not clear when that will take place.

Virtually every team would love to land Sasaki. It stands to reason that most, if not all, clubs have at least prepared a pitch they can make to the 23-year-old righty. Sasaki and his representatives at Wasserman presumably don’t intend to meet with every team over the next few weeks, though.

Agent Joel Wolfe spoke with media (including MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes and Steve Adams) at the Winter Meetings. Wolfe indicated that Sasaki would speak with teams in person at a central location in the United States throughout this week. He’s slated to return to Japan for the holidays but could come back to the U.S. to view the cities of the finalists thereafter.

This is only the first run of presentations. Many people consider the Dodgers or (to a lesser extent) the Padres to be the favorites, though Wolfe vehemently denied last month that there was any kind of handshake agreement with Los Angeles already in place. Wolfe suggested at the Winter Meetings that Sasaki could benefit from landing in a city that doesn’t have a large media contingent, though he stressed that was solely his opinion and that he and Sasaki had yet to discuss that in great detail.

Sasaki’s posting window opened on December 9. He must sign with an MLB team by January 23 but cannot sign until after next year’s international amateur period opens on January 15. He could reach an unofficial verbal agreement before that point, however. Sasaki’s bonus will be hard capped by MLB’s amateur signing limitations.

Teams can acquire up to 60% of their bonus allotment via trade. Those trades cannot begin until the 15th. Sasaki’s maximum potential bonus would be $12.0888MM. He’ll likely sign for a fair bit less than that, since it’d require a team with the highest initial pool (one of Milwaukee, Seattle, Tampa Bay, Minnesota, Miami, Cincinnati, Detroit, or the Athletics) to trade for the maximum amount and commit their entire pool to Sasaki. The Yankees and Mets each have just under $6.2616MM in their starting pool. If they traded for 60% more space, they’d be able to offer just over $10MM.

Agent Joel Wolfe On Roki Sasaki’s Free Agency

By Steve Adams | December 12, 2024 at 11:59pm CDT

Agent Joel Wolfe of Wasserman held court with the media at this week’s Winter Meetings in Dallas to discuss a variety of topics, headlined by an overview of the plan for newly posted right-hander Roki Sasaki. MLBTR was on hand as Wolfe discussed Sasaki, the 23-year-old ace of Japan’s Chiba Lotte Marines, who is now eligible to negotiate with all major league teams.

Because of his age, Sasaki is subject to Major League Baseball’s international amateur guidelines; more specifically, that means he can only sign a minor league deal and receive a bonus that fits within his team’s league-allotted, hard-capped bonus pool. Had Sasaki waited two years to come to the majors, he’d have been 25 and thus qualified as an amateur, possibly setting him up for a contract rivaling that of countryman and current Dodgers righty Yoshinobu Yamamoto (12 years, $325MM).

Asked why Sasaki chose to seek a posting now rather than come to the majors as a true free agent in two years — potentially leaving hundreds of millions of dollars on the table — Wolfe indicated he’d been asked that question “by everyone you can imagine” and attempted to answer to the best of his ability.

“It’s a difficult question to answer. Some of it is Japanese culture. Some of it is just Roki Sasaki. There are no absolutes in baseball and, through Roki’s eyes, there are no absolutes in life. … He does not take anything for granted. It is not an absolute lock, as some people in baseball have assumed, that two years from now he’s going to get a Yamamoto contract. Sometimes, baseball just doesn’t work out. You know, you look at the epidemic of injuries that pitchers suffer. You could have Tommy John surgery. He’s had two shoulder injuries. He’s had an oblique injury. Things may not go the way you want.

“The other thing is, it’s always been his dream to come to the major leagues, since he was in school. He’s grown up idolizing players like Yu Darvish, Masahiro Tanaka, Daisuke Matsuzaka. This is something he’s always wanted to do, and when he went to [the World Baseball Classic] and was around some of these major league players, it really rubbed off on him. He became sure that ’this is what I want to do as soon as possible.'”

With regard to what sort of factors Sasaki will prioritize in his free agency, Wolfe was more vague. He indicated that he and his client have yet to even discuss such factors at length, as Sasaki’s primary focus for so long has been on whether he’ll be posted at all. Wolfe noted that some teams have already submitted presentations for Sasaki but that in-person meetings have yet to begin. Wolfe himself said he’s seen “three or four” of the presentations that have been submitted but added that he expects more to file in. Asked how many teams scouted Sasaki this past season in Japan, Wolfe replied that at least half the league had done so.

Wolfe naturally declined to specify which teams had submitted initial presentations or scouted his client in person. The immediate focus for Sasaki will simply be learning about the teams, organizations and cities among which he’ll choose. He’s slated to arrive in the United States this week, and after reviewing the introductory presentations from interested teams, Sasaki and Wolfe will host teams for a first-round of in-person visits at a central location, beginning next week. Additional waves of team visits — perhaps some in the cities of the finalists — will take place down the road, but Sasaki also plans to return to Japan for a week or two during the upcoming holidays.

Asked specifically whether Sasaki might consider a small market, Wolfe said he it could possibly be of interest but emphasized that he had not confirmed as much with his client:

“Yeah, absolutely. I mean, I think there’s an argument to be made that a small- or mid-market team might be more beneficial for him, as a soft landing, coming from Japan and what he’s been through and not having an enjoyable experience with the media — it might be. I’m not saying it will be, but I don’t know how he’s going to do it. It might be beneficial for him to be in a smaller market, but I really don’t know how he looks at it yet because I haven’t had a chance and discuss it with him [at great length].”

Wolfe spoke at multiple points, once doing so unprompted, about the media coverage of Sasaki in Japan, labeling it “in my personal opinion, a bit unfair” and candidly acknowledging that at times it could have a negative impact on the young right-hander:

“There has been a lot of negativity in the media directed at him because he has expressed interest in going to play for MLB at such a young age. That’s considered in Japan to be very disrespectful and sort of swimming upstream. There’s been a lot of things. A lot of people jumped on board, creating false rumors about him and his family, and it was detrimental to his mental state.”

Wolfe also emphasized that wherever Sasaki lands, it won’t be a pure short-term financial decision:

“Given that the gap in bonus pool amounts is so negligible, my advice to him is: don’t make decisions based on that. The long-term arc of your career is where you’re going to earn your money, so it’s probably not advisable to make a short-term decision in that regard. Take all the factors into consideration.”

Sasaki was officially posted for major league teams on Dec. 9, kicking off a 45-day negotiating period for big league clubs. He’ll have to have a contract finalized by Jan. 23. Wolfe noted that the signing is expected to occur after Jan. 15, so it can fall under the purview of the 2025 international free agent period, which begins that day. While Sasaki’s decision won’t be a purely financial one, Wolfe specified that MLB wanted to ensure as much of a “level playing field” as possible and ensure that both Sasaki and his former team would get the most beneficial deal possible, which is the posting was formalized on Dec. 9, giving him the chance to extend his free agency into next year’s period — when all 30 MLB teams will have more international resources available.

It’ll be a tough pill for the Marines to swallow, regardless. Under the NPB/MLB posting system, NPB players’ former teams receive a release fee equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any money thereafter. In Yamamoto’s case, for instance, his former club received a mammoth $54.375MM release fee from the Dodgers for agreeing to let Yamamoto go. Since Sasaki will be signing for a hard-capped bonus that’ll likely come in south of $10MM, the Marines will probably receive a release fee under $2MM.

Sasaki has pitched in parts of four NPB seasons and tallied 414 2/3 innings of 2.02 ERA ball with a 32.4% strikeout rate and 5.6% walk rate. Any team that signs him will have control of him for at least six seasons. He cannot sign an immediate extension following his minor league deal, pursuant to attachment 46 of the 2022-26 collective bargaining agreement, which indicates that any contracts deemed to be a circumvention of the CBA will not be permitted by the commissioner’s office. Wolfe noted that MLB teams cannot technically even promise Sasaki a spot on the big league roster when signing him, let alone broker an extension ahead of time at a to-be-determined date.

It’s possible, in theory, that Sasaki could sign an extension later in his young MLB career — likely more than a year or two down the road — but Wolfe pushed back on the notion that they’d even be amenable to that. “If he’s really, really good, the leverage would be on our side, so there wouldn’t be much incentive for us to sign a long-term extension.”

Roki Sasaki Officially Posted For MLB Clubs

By Darragh McDonald | December 9, 2024 at 10:00am CDT

Right-hander Roki Sasaki has been officially posted by the Chiba Lotte Marines of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, per Jon Morosi of MLB Network (X link) and Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (X link). That opens a 45-day window for Sasaki and his representatives to talk to MLB clubs, meaning he will need to have a deal in place by January 23 or else he will return to the Marines.

Since Sasaki is under 25 years old, having just turned 23, he is considered an amateur under MLB rules. As such, he must be signed as part of the international bonus pool system. The 2024 international signing period ends on December 15 and the 2025 period starts on January 15. All reporting has suggested that Sasaki will wait to sign until the new period starts up and each club gets a fresh pool of spending money, so he seems destined to sign somewhere between January 15 and 23rd, though the talks can now officially begin.

It seems to be a lock that Sasaki will be coming to the majors next year, the only question is who he will play for. Money won’t be the primary factor, as each club will be able to offer a roughly similar signing bonus. As laid out by Ben Badler of Baseball America, each club has a bonus pool in the $5-8MM range. Teams can trade for more pool money but can’t increase their initial allotment by more than 60%.

If money were Sasaki’s motivation, he would have waited another two years to make this move. Yoshinobu Yamamoto was posted after his 25th birthday and was able to secure a $325MM guarantee from the Dodgers, but Sasaki has insisted on making the move now because he presumably just wants to test his mettle at the world’s top level as soon as possible.

He also surely knows that he will eventually be rewarded as long as he keeps pitching well. Shohei Ohtani also came to the majors as an amateur and had to settle for a small bonus with the Angels, but he flourished and eventually got his big paycheck from the Dodgers once he accrued six years of big league service time.

Given those parameters, Sasaki will likely be deciding his new club based on other factors. It has been suggested by some observers that the Dodgers are a favorite, given that the franchise has had success in general but also especially with pitchers. It’s also possible that the presence of Ohtani and Yamamoto might be nice for Sasaki as he makes the move to a new country and new culture. Some have also suggested the Padres as a strong contender since Sasaki reportedly has a strong relationship with Yu Darvish and might prefer to be in a market away from Ohtani and Yamamoto, giving him a greater chance to step into a spotlight and parlay that into sponsorships opportunities while his direct earning power is relatively low. He may have other preferences based on geography or a team’s competitive outlook, though those can only be guessed.

No club can be officially ruled out, however, given the cheap sticker price and Sasaki’s quality as a pitcher. He has allowed only 2.10 earned runs per nine innings over his NPB career, striking out 32.7% of batters faced while only giving out walks 5.7% of the time. There are some slight workload concerns since Sasaki has had some injuries and never thrown 130 innings in a season, but any club would still love to take a chance on him for the small price of a few million dollars.

Whoever ultimately lands Sasaki, it could lead to domino effects that impact other clubs. MLB teams generally commit their bonus pools years in advance via verbal agreements. Players in countries like the Dominican Republic and Venezuela aren’t allowed to sign until they are 16 years old but they often have handshake deals worked out with clubs years in advance. Whichever club agrees to sign Sasaki, even for a bonus of just a few million, might have to renege on a few of those verbal agreements. That would be an awful situation for those players but could lead to them suddenly becoming available for other clubs. That could create further domino effects if some clubs then back out of their own verbal agreements in order to pivot to the newly available players.

At Baseball America, Badler recently took a look at the chaos that could ensue as the Sasaki situation plays out. That will have to wait, as it likely won’t be known for over a month which team Sasaki will choose.

Roki Sasaki Expected To Be Posted During Winter Meetings

By Mark Polishuk | December 7, 2024 at 9:54am CDT

Roki Sasaki’s official arrival into the free agent market will likely take place during baseball’s Winter Meetings, as ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports that the star right-hander is expected to be posted by the Chiba Lotte Marines on Tuesday. Once posted, Major League teams have 45 days to negotiate with Sasaki, and he’ll return to the Marines for the 2025 Nippon Professional Baseball season if no deal is reached.

It is seen as a virtual lock that Sasaki will be coming to MLB, given how the 23-year-old is so eager to pitch in the big leagues that he is leaving a fortune on the table by coming to North America so early in his career. Since Sasaki is an international free agent who is less than 25 years old, he can only be signed using funds from a team’s international bonus pool.

The timing of the posting is noteworthy, as Sasaki’s 45-day negotiating window will stretch beyond January 15 and the opening of the 2025 international signing period. Since the 2024 period ends on December 15 and teams have already basically spent everything in their budgets, it was widely expected that Sasaki will wait until after January 15 to sign so he could land at least a little more money. Unofficially, teams have had deals in place with international prospects for years in advance of the 2025 int’l window, yet if necessary, it is expected that some teams will walk away from these under-the-table deals if it means giving their entire 2025 bonus pool over to Sasaki.

However, as Sasaki’s early foray to the big leagues indicates, money is far from his chief motivator. Pitching in Major League Baseball will help Sasaki on the endorsement front, of course, but the circumstances of his arrival creates one of the more interesting free agent cases in recent years — arguably the most interesting since Shohei Ohtani’s arrival in the 2017-18 offseason, as Ohtani also came to the majors in advance of his age-23 season.

Though the financial playing field is fairly level for all 30 teams to make a play for Sasaki’s services, the big-spending Dodgers have long been seen a favorite to sign the right-hander, to the point that agent Joel Wolfe vehemently denied rumors that Sasaki and the Dodgers had already worked out some kind of unofficial agreement. There’s obvious appeal for Sasaki in joining a championship team that already has such Japanese stars as Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto on the roster, though it isn’t known what exactly Sasaki is looking for in a Major League destination (geographic preferences, teams with a pre-existing link to Japanese baseball, smaller or larger markets, etc.). As such, it is easy to imagine Sasaki ending up with the Padres, Mets, Giants, Cubs, or any of the several other teams already known to have some interest in his services.

The Marines’ own financial return from Sasaki’s posting will be limited, as per the terms of the MLB/NPB posting system. In addition to paying Sasaki, a Major League team will have to pay the Marines an extra fee based on the amount of Sasaki’s contract — 20% of a deal’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% of further spending. Since Sasaki’s deal is naturally limited by the size of bonus pools, the Marines stand to gain less than $2MM for one of Japan’s top pitchers.

Over 394 2/3 career innings with the Marines, Sasaki has a 2.10 ERA, 32.73% strikeout rate, and 5.7% walk rate. His devastating splitter and high-90s (topping 100mph in past seasons) have left NPB batters fooled, most memorably during a perfect game in 2022 that saw Sasaki record 13 straight strikeouts and 19 strikeouts overall. Sasaki then gained worldwide attention by almost throwing another perfect game in his next start, as he tossed eight perfect innings before being removed due to concerns over his pitch count (102 pitches).

The relative lack of mileage on Sasaki’s arm is both a boon for MLB teams eager to land such a talented pitcher at such a young age, and a bit of a concern about a possible lack of durability. Sasaki’s 129 1/3 innings in 2022 remains his career high, and his 2024 season was limited to 111 innings due to a torn oblique and some type of injury to his right arm. That said, these factors have done nothing to limit the hype on Sasaki, and his arrival in Major League Baseball lines up as one of the key stories of the offseason.

Roki Sasaki’s Agent Denies Rumors Of Handshake Deal With Dodgers

By Steve Adams | November 21, 2024 at 12:57pm CDT

Speculation about the likelihood of star Nippon Professional Baseball right-hander being likely to sign with the Dodgers — or even having a predetermined “handshake” deal to sign in L.A. once formally posted by the Chiba Lotte Marines — has drawn a sharp rebuke from his representatives. Agent Joel Wolfe of Wasserman emphatically denied that there’s any truth to those rumors, telling Evan Drellich of The Athletic:

“While a bunch of executives who should know me better and do a lot of business with me insult my integrity by insinuating that I would be a part of some type of nefarious agreement, in reality, this is just poor sportsmanship.”

Much of the speculation regarding the Dodgers and Sasaki stems from the Dodgers having the largest amount of money remaining in their 2024 international bonus pool — roughly $2.5MM. There’s also the fact that the Dodgers employ a pair of high-profile Japanese stars, Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto — the latter of whom is also represented by Wolfe and Wasserman. Of course, Wolfe/Wasserman are no strangers to representing high-profile international talent. They’ve also represented NPB stars like Kodai Senga and Seiya Suzuki, among others, in recent years.

MLB commissioner Rob Manfred suggested this week that Sasaki’s posting will likely stretch into the 2025 signing period, which throws a wrench into the thinking behind the Dodgers having an edge due to their remaining amount of international pool space. When the 2025 signing period kicks off on Jan. 15, the Dodgers will be tied with the Giants for the smallest pool in the game at $5,146,200, per Baseball America. (The Dodgers forfeited two draft picks and $1MM in international pool space when signing Ohtani last offseason.)

All clubs are able to acquire additional bonus pool space, which is tradeable in $250K increments. However, a club can only acquire up to 60% of its initial pool allotment. For the Dodgers, that means they’ll be capped at offering a bonus in the vicinity of $8.25MM to Sasaki, and even that would require trading plenty of assets in order to acquire the maximum $3.09MM in extra space they can add. Each of the Reds, Tigers, Marlins, Twins, Brewers, A’s, Mariners and Rays, meanwhile will start the 2025 period with pools of $7.555MM. The Padres, another commonly speculated landing spot for Sasaki, will begin the 2025 period with a $6.26MM pool.

In theory, any of those teams with a $7.555MM pool could offer a maximum bonus of just over $12MM if they succeed in acquiring the full 60% of possible additional space. The Padres and others in their bracket could top out at just over $10MM.

In practice, however, it’s unlikely another club would be able to acquire such a weighty slate of international funds. Teams throughout the league continue to thumb their nose at the supposed rules barring them from negotiating advance deals with teenage talent on the international free agent market. Most clubs have already committed the majority of their 2025 pools on handshake deals with teenage prospects in Latin America. Whichever club signs Sasaki will likely do so at the cost of reneging on existing agreements with amateurs in the Dominican Republic, Venezuela and other Latin American countries. Similarly, teams that don’t feel they have a real chance to sign Sasaki will be reluctant to trade significant chunks of their bonus pool, given that so many of those dollars are effectively committed elsewhere.

Baseball America’s Ben Badler took a comprehensive look at the ripple effects of Sasaki’s signing potentially pushing into next year’s period last week, before Manfred had publicly suggested that was likely. As Badler reports, the Dodgers and Padres have committed less of their 2025 pool to Latin American agreements than most clubs around the league, likely due to their hope that Sasaki would be posted and they’d be positioned to make the best offer.

However, it’s also likely that there will be clubs that are willing to scrap their existing verbal agreements in order to make a full-fledged pursuit of Sasaki. Some of those teams will inherently have more to offer the right-hander. The trickle-down effect could see players who thought they’d be signing with a Sasaki bidder instead explore last-minute deals with other clubs, creating a domino effect throughout the Latin American market.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic recently tackled this issue as well, exploring the many pitfalls of a flawed international free agent system the league and MLBPA have yet to sufficiently address. As he notes, it feels patently ridiculous that a player like Sasaki, who has dominated in NPB for the past four seasons and just turned 23, is categorized alongside a 16-year-old prospect from Latin America. Rosenthal suggested the league separate Sasaki from international bonus pools but not make him an unrestricted free agent; rather, cap his bonus at the $7.555MM sum the top teams will have in next year’s signing period. That’s an imperfect solution in and of itself, of course. It could also very well push Sasaki toward one of the widely expected landing spots (L.A. or San Diego) anyhow; all teams would effectively be on an even playing field, and a West Coast, win-now club would quite possibly hold more appeal than a Midwest team with less certain playoff aspirations.

There’s no perfect solution that can be put forth in the coming weeks. Sasaki’s decision to leave literally hundreds of millions of dollars on the table — Yamamoto waited until he was 25 years old to shed his “amateur” status and commanded a $325MM deal in L.A. — creates an impossible predicament for Major League Baseball and its current international amateur setup.

This situation will assuredly be a talking point, if not the focal point, during ensuing discussions regarding a potential international draft in the next wave of collective bargaining talks between MLB and the Players Association. For now, it’s a messy situation that’ll result in plenty of accusations, finger-pointing, and likely some jilted Latin American prospects who are left scrambling for new arrangements.

Manfred: Sasaki Unlikely To Sign Until 2025

By Anthony Franco | November 20, 2024 at 7:51pm CDT

Roki Sasaki is one of the offseason’s top stories. The Chiba Lotte Marines announced two weeks ago that they’d make the 6’2″ righty, who is widely viewed as the best pitcher in Japan, available to major league clubs via the posting system. While the Marines didn’t specify a timeline for the posting, MLB commissioner Rob Manfred confirmed this afternoon that Sasaki is not expected to sign until 2025 (link via Johnny Flores of the Athletic).

That doesn’t come as any kind of surprise. The 23-year-old Sasaki is classified as an amateur free agent — as are all players signing from a foreign league before their 25th birthday. That’s most notable because it caps Sasaki’s signing bonus to a few million dollars, a small fraction of his actual open market value. The amateur status is also relevant to the timing of his signing.

MLB permits teams to sign international amateur free agents at any point between January 15 and December 15. The vast majority of significant deals are inked on January 15. Players signing as teenagers out of Latin America usually reach verbal agreements with teams months or years in advance of the signing period. Those deals are typically finalized as soon as the period opens in mid-January.

As a result, teams have spent most or all of their bonus pools for 2024. Baseball America’s Ben Badler wrote last week that the Dodgers had the most remaining ’24 bonus space at roughly $2.5MM. By contrast, every team has between $5.1MM and $7.6MM in its pool for next year. If Sasaki were to sign before December 15, he’d be limiting himself to a small percentage on a bonus that is already capped. He’s not eligible to sign between December 15 and January 15, so he’ll wait until the opening of next year’s pool.

Of course, that presents a problem for players who have already reached verbal agreements that they expected the teams to finalize on January 15. The amateur bonus pool is hard capped. Teams can trade for bonus allotments to add a couple million dollars to their pools, but there’s a finite amount of money that MLB allows teams to spend. (Players who sign for $10K or less are exempt from the pool, but any prospect of note will sign for much more than that.)

Whichever team signs Sasaki will likely commit most or all of their pool to him. As a major league ready potential ace, he’s far more attractive to teams than even the most well-regarded teenage prospects in the class. The signing team will probably need to renege on verbal agreements with other players, who’d find themselves in flux as they look for other teams that have reached unofficial agreements with targets of their own.

If Sasaki waits into late January or February to sign, teams will need to weigh whether to finalize any commitments to other amateur players — which subtracts from the amount of money they could offer the NPB star. Badler’s piece is worth checking out in full, as he covers the trickle-down impacts that Sasaki’s free agency could have on players and trainers in Latin America. None of those are Sasaki’s concern. They’re unfortunate consequences of the system that was collectively bargained between MLB and the Players Association.

While Sasaki isn’t likely to sign before the middle of January, the posting process could begin earlier than that. A player posted by an NPB team has 45 days to sign with a major league club. The Marines could theoretically post Sasaki anytime from December 2 on to allow him to sign in the ’25 window. They’ll presumably wait at least into the middle of December so as not to force him to sign within a day or two of the opening of the signing period.

Quick Hits: Int’l Market, Mets, Soto, Mateo, Rays, Yankees

By Mark Polishuk | November 17, 2024 at 11:07pm CDT

Roki Sasaki’s impending move to Major League Baseball will have a big impact on the offseason pitching market, but plenty of shockwaves will be felt throughout the international signing market. Baseball America’s Ben Badler recently outlined how several other prospects will be affected if Sasaki’s 45-day posting window stretches beyond January 15 and the start of the next international signing period. If Sasaki doesn’t sign until after January 15, teams will have to use funds from their 2025 signing pools to sign him, rather than their 2024 pools. The 2024 signing period closes on December 15, further narrowing the window of time for Sasaki and an MLB team to finalize a contract.

Since it seems likely Sasaki will indeed still be unsigned by January 15, Badler observes that multiple teams could end up putting their plans for the next signing period entirely on hold until the right-hander makes his decision. This means that the many prospects already committed to these teams on unofficial deals will be in limbo, and the club that finally lands Sasaki is likely to walk away from those pre-existing handshake deals if it means landing the Japanese star. It would leave that team’s set of international prospects suddenly looking to land elsewhere, and potentially other clubs’ prospects might also walk away from their agreements if nothing is finalized on January 15. As Badler notes, teams that aren’t in the running for Sasaki could benefit in swooping in to sign some extra prospects in the aftermath.

The entire situation adds a lot of extra drama to what is normally a fairly routine day on the calendar, as clubs have had these deals with these young January 15th prospects worked out years in advance, sometimes when the players are barely teenagers. Needless to say, it creates a lot of disruption for the players, their families, and their trainers who helped arrange the signings, as what looked like safe pre-arranged windfalls might now be in question. As much as Sasaki may have a higher clear upside than an entire bonus pool’s worth of international prospects, abandoning a January 15th class could create some hard feelings for a team in their future int’l dealings.

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