Backup quarterbacks are the least important person on an NFL game-day roster ... until they become the most important. Just ask the 2023 Jets, who lost Aaron Rodgers after four snaps and stumbled from serious contender to 7-10. But having the right No. 2 guy could mean the Lombardi Trophy (see: Nick Foles and the 2017 Eagles).
How much teams decide to invest in their backup quarterback is an interesting team-building exercise. In general, my view is that backup QBs are underrated and represent value in the free agent market. Even if a team feels it can't survive for the long term without its starting signal-caller, there are plenty of scenarios where the No. 2 needs to step in for a few games. Competent play in those situations can mean the difference between success or failure in pursuing a playoff berth.
Some teams -- such as the Packers and Dolphins -- have already had to put their backups to work in 2024, and more will surely follow in the coming weeks. So who is well positioned to weather a quarterback injury (or poor performance) storm?
I ranked the current backup quarterbacks from 1-32. The error bands are much larger here than for starters -- many of these players are being judged on a very limited sample of actual football. But teams have to make calls on which backups they want, so it's only right we also make a judgment. This list consists of current backup QBs, season-ending injuries excluded -- so Nick Mullens (not J.J. McCarthy) is considered Minnesota's backup.
1. Drake Maye, New England Patriots
I'm high on first-round rookies because the mean expectation for them in Year 1 is a below-average starter with upside. That's a pretty favorable assessment compared to the rest of this list. The expectation is particularly high for Maye, a high-end prospect selected with the No. 3 overall pick in April. He threw for 62 touchdown passes and 16 interceptions over 26 starts at North Carolina.
Normally I'd hold not winning the job in training camp against him, but he had solid competition in Jacoby Brissett and Patriots coach Jerod Mayo even said Maye outplayed Brissett in the summer. This was more about giving Maye time to develop and putting him in a position to succeed. Given all that, I'm putting Maye at No. 1.
2. Jameis Winston, Cleveland Browns
Derek Carr's resurgence under Klint Kubiak has me thinking about Winston, who recorded a 35.1 QBR over 188 action plays (dropbacks, designed carries and relevant penalties) over 2022-23 in New Orleans but had a 71.5 QBR in 2021 with Sean Payton. Winston has never posted a QBR below 50 in a season in which he started at least five games, which is a stunning fact I can't get over. And that's the number that sold me on putting him this high on the list.
It's clear to me Winston should be starting for the Browns over Deshaun Watson right now, and if Cleveland can't see that, it is letting sunk cost fallacy get in the way of rational thinking.
3. Jake Browning, Cincinnati Bengals
Browning is a pretty clear example of this list's variance. At this time a year ago, he might have been in the bottom five. But he's now in the conversation for the best backup in the league after filling in admirably for Joe Burrow last season. He had a 60.8 QBR across nine games and seven starts, which would have ranked 13th in the league had he qualified. He even led the league in completion percentage (70.4%). Really, his only red flag is that he was undrafted. To have that strong of a recent performance -- especially with no poor seasons in his career -- makes Browning a top choice.
4. Russell Wilson, Pittsburgh Steelers
We're considering Justin Fields the starter in Pittsburgh, given that the team is 3-0 with him leading the way. That pushes Wilson into the de facto backup role. He is the opposite of the first-round rookies; he's a solid choice as a slightly below-average starting quarterback when called upon but doesn't have any of the upside. He can be relied upon to throw short passes, not turn the ball over too often and once in a blue moon uncork a rainbow deep ball that will give about five minutes of hope the old Wilson is back.
Wilson was 21st in QBR last season (51.5), and that's indicative of who he is as a quarterback at this point. You could do a lot worse -- clearly, given his place on this list.
5. Michael Penix Jr., Atlanta Falcons
Penix falls into the same bucket as Maye as an early first-round pick -- just slightly less strong as a prospect -- who has yet to start an NFL game. The upside is there, and you would hope Penix would provide more for your team than most of the QBs on this list, especially since he started 45 games in college. Penix threw for 4,903 yards last season at Washington before going No. 8 overall in April.
6. Tyrod Taylor, New York Jets
In response to their backup quarterback fiasco in 2023 -- when they relied on Zach Wilson, Trevor Siemian and Tim Boyle to start after Aaron Rodgers' season-ending Achilles injury -- the Jets signed Taylor, one of the top free agent backups. We have recent evidence of capable backup play, as he recorded a 52.3 QBR with the Giants in five starts in 2023, albeit with a minus-4.2% completion percentage over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Taylor carries risk at 35 years old, but New York should feel pretty good about handing him the ball if Rodgers needs to sit out a game or two.
7. Carson Wentz, Kansas City Chiefs
Wentz is only eight starts removed from a 2021 season with the Colts that ended ugly but was actually pretty solid from Wentz's standpoint. The veteran quarterback posted a 60.6 QBR, good for ninth in the league. Of course, Wentz was in Indianapolis because his Eagles tenure ended poorly, and he struggled the following season in Washington. But Wentz has played a lot more good football than many quarterbacks on this list and is only 31.
8. Jimmy Garoppolo, Los Angeles Rams
Garoppolo is hard to rank because he should be higher on this list based on numbers alone. After all, that's why the Raiders signed him to a real money deal in 2023 (Las Vegas ended up paying $24 million for one year, per OverTheCap). But without Kyle Shanahan as his playcaller, Garoppolo floundered to a 34.7 QBR in six starts before he was benched for Aidan O'Connell. Considering the success so many coaches from the Shanahan/Sean McVay tree are having with lesser quarterbacks, it's fair to wonder how valuable Garoppolo is independent of scheme, even if he's now playing for McVay. But you can't totally discount the production he had in San Francisco.
9. Sam Howell, Seattle Seahawks
As recently as last November, Commanders defensive lineman Jonathan Allen said of Howell, "We found our next quarterback for five, 10 years. I truly believe that." Even then, Howell wasn't perfect. He had an astronomical 10.5% sack rate at the time of the quote, though he had done a decent job protecting the football, and his completion percentage over expectation was near flat.
But the Commanders lost every game after Allen's quote, and Howell's turnover rate ballooned to 3.0% (fourth highest). He had a middling QBR of 43.2 by the end of the season, and his sack rate settled in at 9.1% -- slightly better but still very poor. Howell might still provide a glimmer of hope as a backup, but any team would be wary of his ability to hang onto the ball -- and stay upright -- over the long term.
10. Drew Lock, New York Giants
A career minus-5.5% completion percentage over expectation (per NFL Next Gen Stats) and 2.9% interception rate have contributed to a 41.1 career QBR for Lock. Still, he had a few moments while backing up Geno Smith in Seattle last season -- including a 20-17 win over the Eagles that prompted this memorable celebration between the two quarterbacks.
11. Mitchell Trubisky, Buffalo Bills
12. Joe Flacco, Indianapolis Colts
Before this exercise, I thought I'd rank Flacco lower. He was more fortunate than it seemed last season with Cleveland. The Browns were 4-1 in his starts, but his 3.9% turnover rate was really high, and his QBR was only 49.1. Plus, he was available only because he was a 38-year-old quarterback coming off a bad season.
The age is still a big knock against him, but Flacco has been remarkably consistent, with a QBR between 47 and 54 in every season except 2022. And it's pretty easy to believe the Jets didn't foster the best environment for a quarterback in that '22 season. So Flacco is a fine option to fill in for a few games.
13. Aidan O'Connell, Las Vegas Raiders
14. Mason Rudolph, Tennessee Titans
15. Malik Willis, Green Bay Packers
Willis' ranking shows just how fast we update our priors given the lack of information about many of these quarterbacks. I might have had Willis in the bottom five two weeks ago. He barely got on the field in Tennessee -- a red flag in and of itself, considering the Titans played a recently signed Joshua Dobbs over him while pursuing a playoff berth in 2022 -- and was poor when he did play. He lost out on the backup job to Mason Rudolph in training camp before being traded to Green Bay in August.
But Willis has a QBR of 89.5 in two starts with the Packers, both wins. Even if we remove scrambles and designed runs, his QBR is still a strong 64.0. Granted, Green Bay has taken a very run-heavy approach and Willis has a good coach in Matt LaFleur to adjust the offense for him. That the offense had to change is perhaps a knock on Willis, but his rushing ability gives him a higher floor. He led QBs in EPA on the ground in Week 3.
Pat McAfee and his crew break down the stellar play from Packers quarterback Malik Willis in relief of injured Jordan Love.
16. Hendon Hooker, Detroit Lions
Hooker is one of the hardest players on this list to rank because he hasn't taken a snap as a pro. But he was a third-round pick in 2023 despite suffering a torn ACL at the end of his college career. And he played well enough in the preseason that the Lions were willing to roll with him as their No. 2, which is another good sign. Before the knee injury, Hooker had a fantastic 27-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his final 2022 season at Tennessee.
17. Nick Mullens, Minnesota Vikings
If you want a backup who is going to be conservative and just hang onto the football, then Mullens is not your guy. Among players with at least 100 pass attempts last season, he ranked second in average air yards (9.3) and last in interception rate (4.9%). Part of me thinks if you're already down to your backup quarterback, you might as well take risks. Mullens will do that for you.
18. Taylor Heinicke, Los Angeles Chargers
19. Kenny Pickett, Philadelphia Eagles
20. Cooper Rush, Dallas Cowboys
21. Mac Jones, Jacksonville Jaguars
Maybe it's stubbornness, but I can't totally quit on Jones. There aren't many quarterbacks who can be as solid as he was as a rookie, when he had a 56.9 QBR and close to a 0% completion percentage over expectation in New England. Everything went way downhill, but the skill was there. Could it come back? Clearly the Jaguars thought there was a chance, since they dealt a sixth-round pick for the QB this offseason. That being said, Jones' Jaguars debut on Monday was rough; he was strip-sacked on his first play and later nearly threw an interception.
22. Davis Mills, Houston Texans
23. Josh Johnson, Baltimore Ravens
24. Tyson Bagent, Chicago Bears
25. Jarrett Stidham, Denver Broncos
26. Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers
Young is just 17 months removed from being the No. 1 overall pick in the draft and therefore still has upside. But he's a weakness right now considering his poor rookie season, disastrous first two starts of 2024 (QBR of 9.1) and the way Andy Dalton made that same offense hum immediately in a Week 3 win over the Raiders.
27. Brandon Allen, San Francisco 49ers
28. Kyle Trask, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
29. Jake Haener, New Orleans Saints
30. Jeff Driskel, Washington Commanders
31. Skylar Thompson, Miami Dolphins
Thompson beat out Mike White for the Dolphins' backup job, which is something. But he struggled last week against Seattle in Tua Tagovailoa's stead, recording a QBR of 8.1 -- the second worst by a QB this season -- despite being in Mike McDaniel's QB-friendly system. If I were the Dolphins, I'd think about a move to Tyler Huntley, even if Thompson is healthy after suffering a rib injury.
32. Clayton Tune, Arizona Cardinals
Someone had to be last. And though we're judging Tune on only one game against a great Browns defense in 2023, that start was awfully ugly. Tune's 2023 QBR was a 1.2 after he threw for 58 yards, tossed two picks, fumbled once and was sacked seven times. Maybe it was just a bad day. But it's our only professional data point for him -- along with being a fifth-round pick -- so it's hard to feel great if you're Arizona.