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Updated : Jan 08, 2025

Sunil Sinha: Inflation, Low Growth Make Tax Cuts Challenging For Govt

India's economic growth is projected to slow significantly in FY25, with the first advance estimate indicating a real GDP growth rate of 6.4%, down from 8.2% in FY24. This deceleration, the slowest since the pandemic, reflects challenges across key sectors, including a sharp decline in manufacturing growth from 9.9% to 5.3%. While agriculture is a bright spot, expected to grow at 3.8% compared to 1.4% last year, other critical sectors like trade, hotels, and financial services are also set to witness slower growth. On the question of the impact on government tax revenue, particularly amidst demands for income tax relief to ease pressure on the middle class, economist Sunil Sinha highlighted the complexities. He noted that while boosting disposable income through tax reductions could stimulate consumption, it remains challenging given the government's focus on capex-driven investments. Addressing inflation, particularly food inflation, and managing geopolitical risks like a depreciating rupee and rising oil import costs, are critical measures. Sinha emphasized that while structural reforms are needed to enhance consumption demand, substantial income tax relief in the upcoming budget may not be feasible. Instead, targeted efforts to control inflation and support key sectors like agriculture might play a pivotal role in stabilizing the economy and encouraging growth.

Updated : Jan 08, 2025

Budget 2025 Expectations | Indranil Pan On Economic Challenges And Budget Solutions

India's economic growth is projected to slow significantly in FY25, with the first advance estimate indicating a real GDP growth rate of 6.4%, down from 8.2% in FY24. This marks the slowest growth rate since the pandemic, driven by a sharp decline in manufacturing growth from 9.9% to 5.3% and moderation in sectors like trade, hotels, and financial services. Addressing the implications of this slowdown for fiscal and monetary policy, Indranil Pan, Chief Economist at YES Bank, emphasized the need for targeted government interventions. He suggested that reviving growth requires a strong focus on supply-side measures, including fine-tuning employment and skilling schemes to generate jobs and enhance income distribution. Pan highlighted the urgent need for increased investment in agricultural R&D to address climate change challenges and stabilize food prices. He also underscored the importance of reducing costs related to electricity and logistics to boost manufacturing, pointing out that despite lower corporate tax rates, India’s manufacturing sector has yet to achieve significant growth. With these considerations, the forthcoming budget will need to balance short-term economic stabilization with long-term growth initiatives, particularly in employment generation, agriculture, and infrastructure.

Updated : Jan 07, 2025

Crucial First Advance Estimate Of GDP For FY25 Ahead Of Budget FY26

India's GDP growth is estimated to moderate to a four-year low of 6.4% in the current financial year ending March, according to the first advance estimate released by the statistics ministry. The Indian economy has grown by at least 7% in each of the last three financial years after shrinking 5.8% in 2020-21. In FY24, GDP growth beat all forecasts to come in at 8.2%. The first advance estimate of 6.4% is even lower than the Reserve Bank of India's projection of 6.6% GDP growth for FY25 and the Finance Ministry's estimate of 6.5%. Siddharth Zarabi, Editor, Business Today discusses the implications and the meaning of this dip in economic growth with two top economists - Indranil Pan, Chief Economist of YES Bank and Sunil Sinha, Economist.

Updated : Nov 22, 2024

Tatas Don’t Think Small: Dr. Mathew On Air India Transformation

Ratan Tata's decision to acquire Air India stems from a blend of nostalgia, ambition, and determination. Dr. Thomas Mathew, author of "Ratan Tata: A Life," highlights that the decision was partly emotive, rooted in the legacy of J.R.D. Tata, who regarded Air India as a jewel in India’s aviation crown. J.R.D. Tata's removal as Air India's chairman during Morarji Desai's era left a lasting impact, and bringing the "Maharaja" back to the Tata fold was a way to restore its legacy.Beyond sentiment, Tata Sons chairman N. Chandrasekaran expressed confidence in the ability to transform Air India into a global aviation leader. With their penchant for executing grand-scale projects, the Tatas aim to rejuvenate the airline’s fleet and service quality, symbolizing India’s aviation excellence. Dr. Mathew emphasizes, "This is not the same Maharaja; it’s a wounded one. But with time, they can turn it into an epitome of India's airline success."

Updated : Nov 18, 2024

Lessons For Future Generations From Ratan Tata's Life

Ratan Tata: A Life by Dr Thomas Mathew offers readers an in-depth look at one of India’s most iconic industrialists, Ratan Tata. This biography takes a comprehensive journey from Tata's lonely childhood to his rise as the chairman of Tata Sons in 1991 and his pivotal role as head of Tata Trusts, India’s largest philanthropic institution. Drawing on extensive interviews with Tata, his family, friends, and business associates, Mathew reveals previously unknown anecdotes and personal insights, capturing the life, challenges, and achievements of a man who shaped modern Indian industry. Thomas Mathew's three-decade friendship with Tata lends this biography an authentic perspective, revealing both the public and private facets of Ratan Tata’s extraordinary life. Thomas Mathew, a retired bureaucrat, served in key roles during his distinguished three-decade tenure in the Indian Administrative Service. A law graduate from Delhi University with a doctorate in International Relations from Jawaharlal Nehru University, Mathew was instrumental in introducing transformative policies in the defence and finance ministries. His notable contributions include enabling unrestricted foreign direct investment in India’s defence sector and facilitating direct participation of foreign investors in the Indian equity market. Mathew’s association with Ratan Tata began about 30 years ago, rooted in shared interests, and their enduring connection provided unique insights into Tata’s life. His deep understanding of global policies and the corporate world uniquely positioned him to author this comprehensive biography. Watch Business Today Editor Siddharth Zarabi in conversation with Thomas Mathew, the author of 'Ratan Tata: A Life' and Former bureaucrat credited with pioneering changes in defence and Finance and a regular contributor to major newspapers on these and security issues. Watch Business Today Editor Siddharth Zarabi in conversation with Thomas Mathew, the author of Ratan Tata: A Life.

Updated : Nov 18, 2024

BT Magazine Exclusive Interview With Uday Shankar, Vice Chairperson Of Reliance-Disney Media JV

Reliance Industries Limited, Viacom 18 Media Private Limited and The Walt Disney Company announced that following the approval by the NCLT Mumbai, Competition Commission of India and other regulatory authorities, the merger of the media and JioCinema businesses of Viacom18 into Star India Private Limited has become effective (the “JV”). In addition, RIL has invested ₹11,500 crore into the JV for its growth. The JV has allotted shares to Viacom18 and RIL as consideration for the assets and cash, respectively. The transaction values the JV at ₹ 70,352 crore on a post-money basis, excluding synergies. At the closing of the transactions noted above, the JV is controlled by RIL and owned 16.34% by RIL, 46.82% by Viacom18 and 36.84% by Disney. Nita Ambani will be the Chairperson of the JV, with Uday Shankar as Vice Chairperson of the JV. Watch BT Magazine Exclusive Interview with Uday Shankar, Vice Chairperson of the Reliance-Disney Media JV, in conversation with Siddharth Zarabi, Editor of Business Today, and Krishna Gopalan, Executive Editor of Business Today.

Updated : Oct 17, 2024

The Five Key Tipping Points For The Indian Economy

A recent UBS report raises crucial questions about India’s economic trajectory as it aims to become the world’s third-largest economy. With a population exceeding 1.4 billion, the nation faces pressing issues such as inflation, consumer sentiment, job creation, and the implications of an election-heavy calendar. The report highlights five key areas of concern. First, India's K-shaped consumption pattern, which suggests a potential narrowing as affluent consumers show signs of fatigue while low-income segments may benefit from increased rural demand and public spending. Second, whether India’s current ‘goldilocks’ growth phase—characterized by strong GDP growth—can be sustained amidst external risks like global slowdowns and market pressures from China. Third, the shifting composition of household savings, noting a transition from bank deposits to alternative asset classes, impacting bank deposit growth. the report also covers the possibility of more significant rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in light of global monetary easing, and what this could mean for capital expenditure recovery. and Report covers concerns regarding fiscal profligacy in various Indian states, especially in the context of upcoming elections, which could impact overall economy. Watch Tanvee Gupta Jain, Chief India Economist, UBS Securities India in conversation with with Business Today TV Managing Editor Siddharth Zarabi as we unpack these pivotal questions and their implications for India’s future economic landscape.

Updated : Oct 09, 2024

Deloitte’s Rumki Majumdar: RBI May Cut Rates In December If Inflation Declines

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has kept the repo rate unchanged at 6.5%, with a 5:1 majority, and shifted its monetary policy stance to 'neutral' from 'withdrawal of accommodation.' This has sparked speculation about a potential rate cut in the December policy meeting. Rumki Majumdar, Economist at Deloitte India, believes a rate cut in December is possible but notes that the next couple of months will be critical. She highlights that while overall CPI inflation has dipped below 4%, rural inflation remains high at 4.2%, driven by persistently high food prices. Majumdar points out that rural demand is beginning to show signs of recovery, but the RBI will closely monitor food and commodity price movements in the coming months. Additionally, she emphasizes the importance of global factors, particularly the U.S. Federal Reserve's actions, which could influence India's inflation and import costs. All these factors will play a crucial role in shaping the RBI's decision in December.

Updated : Oct 09, 2024

RBI Says Subsidies Dragged Down Q1 GDP Growth, Madan Sabnavis Explains What’s Next

At the post-monetary policy press briefing, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das addressed concerns regarding India’s GDP growth, stating that the growth rate of 6.7% in Q1 FY25 was constrained by central and state government subsidies. He mentioned that GDP growth would have exceeded 7% if the effect of subsidies was removed from the calculation. Das also noted that lower government expenditure in the first quarter impacted growth but expressed confidence that both central and state spending will align with the budget targets for the year. Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist at Bank of Baroda, offered insights on the governor's remarks. He explained that while Q1 growth was slightly lower at 6.7%, the GDP growth projection for the full year remains at 7.2%. Sabnavis highlighted that consumer demand and investment have both revived, contributing positively to economic momentum. He emphasized that the gap between GDP and GVA (Gross Value Added) was influenced by the heavy subsidy outlays in the first quarter, possibly due to election-related front-loading. However, as tax collections remain strong and the need for subsidies lessens, GDP growth is expected to realign with the 7.2% target in the upcoming quarters. Sabnavis also reassured that the RBI can continue focusing on inflation without concern about hindering growth, as the economy is on the right trajectory.

Updated : Oct 09, 2024

Has The RBI Set The Stage For A Rate Cut In The Future?

Is the RBI’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged a prudent and well-considered move? Headline inflation has moderated, but is it likely to rise again due to geopolitical tensions and increasing commodity prices? Domestic growth remains strong, with urban demand holding steady and rural demand showing signs of improvement. So is it wise of the MPC members to observe the situation for a few more months before considering a strategic interest rate cut? What does the RBI shifting its monetary policy stance to 'Neutral', mean for liquidity conditions and growth? And has the stage been set for a potential rate cut in the future?

Updated : Sep 10, 2024

Contrarian Report By Nomura Says Rate Cuts To Begin In October, 100 BPS Cuts By Mid-2025

An exclusive conversation with Sonal Varma, Managing Director and Chief Economist (India and Asia ex-Japan), Nomura on why the global consultant believes that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) could resort to repo rate cuts in its October monetary policy review. While the consensus among analysts is that rate cuts will happen only from December after food inflation cools, Nomura in its recent report, said that RBI could make a surprise rate cut in October and trim repo rates by up to 100 basis points to 5.50 per cent by mid FY25. RBI had last tweaked repo rates in February 2023 increasing the benchmark rate to 6.50 per cent. The rates have been held since then with the central bank intent on keeping retail inflation at 4 per cent with a ‘tolerance band’ of 200 basis points on either side. In a chat with Business Today TV Managing Editor Siddharth Zarabi, the Nomura MD and Chief Economist says while food price inflation is cooling and core inflation remains benign, growth is going to soften going ahead. According to Nomura, India's GDP growth is expected to moderate to 6.7 per cent this financial year from 8.2 per cent last year, with downside risks rising in 2025-26. It is in this backdrop that Sonal Varma believes an inflection in India's monetary policy cycle is around the corner. She expects the RBI to cut the repo rate by 25 bps each in October, December, February 2025 and April 2025.

Updated : Sep 09, 2024

Exclusive: Shyam Srinivasan, MD & CEO, Federal Bank On A 14-Year Success Legacy

Shyam Srinivasan, who has served as the Managing Director and CEO of Federal Bank since September 23, 2010, is set to be succeeded by KVS Manian, the former Joint Managing Director at Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd. Srinivasan's tenure, spanning 14 years, concludes on September 22, 2024. Under his leadership, Federal Bank has achieved significant milestones and growth. Recently, Federal Bank reported its financial results for the quarter ending June 30, 2024, marking a record high in quarterly profit, which increased by 18.25% to ₹1,010 crore. Total business for the bank rose by 20% to ₹4,86,871 crore, driven by strong gains in both deposits and advances. The operating profit reached an unprecedented ₹1,500.91 crore. Key performance metrics include an improved Return on Assets (ROA) of 1.27% and a Return on Equity (ROE) of 13.64%. Asset quality remained strong with Gross NPA at 2.11% and Net NPA at 0.60%. Total deposits grew by 19.58%, and net advances increased by 20.34%. Net Interest Income (NII) surged by 19.46% to ₹2,291.98 crore, showcasing Federal Bank's robust financial health and strategic growth. Watch Shyam Srinivasan, MD & CEO of Federal Bank, in conversation with Business Today TV Managing Editor Siddharth Zarabi.

Updated : Sep 06, 2024

Federal Bank's Shyam Srinivasan: Bank Stake Dilution Must Be Commercially & Culturally Viable

Shyam Srinivasan, MD & CEO of Federal Bank, shared his insights in an exclusive conversation with Business Today TV's Managing Editor Siddharth Zarabi. When asked if the Indian government should continue its heavy investments in banks, Srinivasan acknowledged the government's gradual dilution of stake over time but stressed that the process must be handled carefully. He highlighted the unique histories, workforces, and customer bases of these institutions, emphasizing that a strategic approach is essential. Srinivasan believes the transition should be both commercially and culturally viable, focusing on the sensitivities of employees and customers alike.

Updated : Sep 06, 2024

Shyam Srinivasan: Federal Bank Eyes Top 5 Private Sector Spot

In an exclusive conversation with Business Today TV's Managing Editor Siddharth Zarabi, Shyam Srinivasan, MD & CEO of Federal Bank, shared his vision for the bank's future over the next five years. Srinivasan emphasized the goal of becoming the "most admired bank"—not necessarily the biggest or most profitable, but one respected by all stakeholders, including regulators, employees, and clients. He outlined ambitious plans to surpass ₹10 lakh crore in size, driven by strong digital capabilities, a youthful workforce, and a favorable market environment. Srinivasan also highlighted Federal Bank's organic growth strategy, aiming to secure a top-five position among private sector banks in India.

Updated : Sep 05, 2024

Godfrey Phillips' Samir Modi Questions The Company's Decision To Sell The Popular Retail Outlets

In an exclusive interview, Samir Modi, Executive Director of Godfrey Phillips India, addressed claims regarding the accumulating losses of up to ₹700 crore in the 24Seven retail business. Samir clarified that he cannot be held responsible as he is not the Managing Director and reports directly to the board of Godfrey Phillips India (GPI). He questioned why the business was not shut down five years ago if the board felt it was not sustainable. Samir further pointed out that similar scrutiny should be applied to the company's Managing Director, Bina Modi, who presided over a 2% loss in market share and has overseen accumulated reserves of ₹3,000 crores that have not been distributed to shareholders. He expressed concerns, emphasizing that the board was informed of the company's numbers regularly but chose to remain silent until now when he began asking questions on behalf of shareholders. Samir suggested that the recent actions against him were motivated by his decision to question the declining performance of the company, which has led to attempts to remove him from the board. He also disputed claims that there was any formal recommendation by the Nomination and Remuneration Committee (NRC) to shut down 24Seven, asserting that no such report exists in the public domain and that the claims against him are baseless.

Updated : Sep 05, 2024

Samir Modi Suggests Family Business Split: Godfrey Phillips For Him, Chemicals For Mother

In an exclusive interview, Samir Modi, Executive Director of Godfrey Phillips, addressed the ongoing family dispute with his mother and its impact on the company. Samir expressed his Concern over the unresolved conflict, revealing that he has made numerous attempts to resolve the issue, including standing outside his mother's house and office for hours, seeking answers to the reasons behind their dispute. He emphasized that his goal is to end the conflict and focus on building the business, not destroying it. Samir mentioned that his late father, KK Modi, had envisioned a future where the family would work together to preserve the legacy and continuity of the business. He shared that his father's wish was for his mother and sister to run Chemicals Segment while he and his brother managed Godfrey Phillips India (GPI). Samir urged for a division of responsibilities that would protect the family legacy, ensure succession, and maintain continuity.Samir also clarified that while he did not oppose the retail sale decision, he was against the manner in which it was executed, particularly due to its impact on the 1,000 employees and the destruction of shareholder value. He reiterated his commitment to the company’s slogan, "People First," and expressed his willingness to find a solution that would end the dispute and allow the family to move forward in a way that honors his father's legacy and protects the company's future.

Updated : Sep 05, 2024

Godfrey Phillips' Samir Modi: I Have 25 More Years To Lead, My Mother Is 80

The boardroom battle at Godfrey Phillips India between Bina Modi and her son Samir Modi is intensifying as the Annual General Meeting (AGM) approaches on September 6, a critical event that will determine the future of the company's leadership. Proxy advisory firms Institutional Investor Advisory Services (IiAS) and ISS have advised shareholders to vote against the reappointment of Bina Modi as Managing Director, citing concerns over her ability to commit sufficient time to her role and her remuneration, which they argue is not aligned with the company's size and operations. On the other hand, the Nomination and Remuneration Committee (NRC) of Godfrey Phillips has decided against the reappointment of Samir Modi to the board, questioning his conduct during board meetings and beyond, which the company claims violates his fiduciary duties as an Executive Director. In an exclusive interview, Samir Modi expressed frustration over the NRC’s decision, highlighting his long-standing service to the company since 1994. He questioned the reasons behind the NRC's decision, emphasizing his contributions to building successful brands like 'Focus' for GPIL and his extensive experience in the tobacco industry. Samir also noted that the decision not to recommend his reappointment was in contempt of a court order that required his name to be put forward by his mother, Bina Modi, to the NRC. Samir argued that the final decision rests with the shareholders at the upcoming AGM, where they will vote on whether to retain him on the board. He contrasted his years of experience and contributions to the company with his mother’s age and questioned why his long-standing service is now being dismissed as misconduct. The outcome of the AGM will be crucial in determining the leadership and future direction of Godfrey Phillips India.

Updated : Sep 05, 2024

Samir Modi's Message To Godfrey Phillips Shareholders: I Am Pro-Shareholder

Godfrey Phillips shares dropped 5% following reports of the company finalizing the sale of its 24Seven retail business to the start-up New Shop. The transaction is set to be completed by the end of September. In an exclusive interview with Business Today TV Managing Editor Siddharth Zarabi, Samir Modi, Executive Director of Godfrey Phillips, expressed his concern about the sale and the broader direction of the company. Samir Modi highlighted that he is pro-shareholder and that his primary concern is the company's long-term value and growth. He questioned why the company, with over ₹3,000 crores in reserves and no expansion plans, is not distributing these funds to shareholders. Modi emphasized his track record of building successful businesses, including launching a top brand for Godfrey Phillips within just 55 days. He criticized the decision to shut down 24Seven, noting that the market reacted negatively to the news and argued that shareholders were cheated by this move. Modi pointed out that while brands take a long time to build, they can quickly lose value if not properly managed, a concern he believes should worry shareholders.

Updated : Sep 05, 2024

Samir Modi On 24Seven Sale: A Loss For Godfrey Phillips

Godfrey Phillips shares slipped 5% following reports of the company finalizing the sale of its 24Seven retail business to the start-up New Shop. The transaction is expected to be completed by September-end, with the transition of 24Seven's shops and assets already in progress. In an exclusive interview with Business Today TV Managing Editor Siddharth Zarabi, Samir Modi, Executive Director of Godfrey Phillips, expressed his concerns over the sale. He highlighted that the retail business was established under the guidance of his late father, KK Modi, to create an alternative income stream, similar to ITC's diversification from tobacco. Samir Modi opposed the sale, pointing out that 24Seven had begun to generate profits and employed 1,650 people. He questioned the decision to sell the business at a loss, arguing that it could have been sold as a running concern to recover losses. Modi also criticized the management changes made during the sale process, suggesting that these decisions lacked logic and did not maximize value for the company. Despite his concerns, Samir Modi stated that he did not oppose the board's decision but emphasized the missed opportunity for a more beneficial outcome.

Updated : Sep 05, 2024

Exclusive: Samir Modi, ED, Godfrey Phillips On Upcoming AGM, Family Dispute

Amid a fierce boardroom battle at Godfrey Phillips India, proxy advisory firms Institutional Investor Advisory Services (IiAS) and ISS have advised shareholders to vote against the reappointment of Bina Modi as Managing Director. The upcoming Annual General Meeting (AGM) on September 6 will be pivotal, as shareholders decide on Bina Modi’s reappointment. ISS has raised concerns about her ability to commit sufficient time to the role, given her position as Chairman and Managing Director of Indofil Industries Ltd. Additionally, the advisory firm noted that Bina Modi's remuneration, while competitive within the industry, may not align with the company’s size and scale, potentially creating conflicts of interest. Tobacco major Godfrey Phillips faces a critical juncture as it navigates leadership and governance challenges amid a prolonged family dispute. Catch an exclusive interview with Samir Modi, Executive Director of Godfrey Phillips, with Business Today TV Managing Editor Siddharth Zarabi.

Updated : Aug 30, 2024

Q1FY25 GDP Growth Explained: First GDP Numbers Post-Election & Budget 2024

India's economy grew at 6.7% in the April-June quarter of FY25 over the growth rate of 8.2% in Q1 of FY 2023-24. This figure reflects a deceleration from the 7.8% growth seen in the previous quarter of FY24 and 8.2% in the corresponding period last year.“Real GDP has been estimated to grow by 6.7% in Q1 of FY 2024-25 over the growth rate of 8.2% in Q1 of FY 2023-24,” the finance ministry said in a statement.The latest National Statistical Office (NSO) data stated India’s gross value added or GVA, which is GDP minus net product taxes and reflects growth in supply, also grew 6.8 per cent during April-June 2024.The Reserve Bank of India's forecast was 7.1% growth in the first quarter. Analysts predicted growth in the range of 6%-7.1% for Q1 FY25, compared with 7.8% in the previous quarter (Q4 FY24). ICRA anticipated a 6% growth, while State Bank of India (SBI) and Anand Rathi Research expected a growth rate of 7.1% and 7%, respectively. Acuite Ratings & Research forecasts a 6.4% growth, and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) also projects a 7.1% increase in GDP for the April-June 2024 quarter.Watch Business Today TV Managing Editor Siddharth Zarabi in conversation with Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist, Bank of Baroda, Saugata Bhattacharya, Economist and Rumki Majumdar, Economist, Deloitte India.

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