Copulas

سه متغیر دبی اوج، حجم رواناب و مدت از مشخصات اصلی پدیده سیلاب می باشند. معمولاً برای تحلیل سیلاب از یکی از متغیرهای مذکور (عمدتاً دبی اوج) استفاده می شود که این موضوع موجب دست بالا گرفتن یا دست پایین گرفتن نتایج می شود. لذا به منظور افزایش اطمینان به نتایج تحلیل ها باید از رویکردهای آماری چندمتغیره استفاده نمود. روش سنتی انجام تحلیل های چندمتغیره، استفاده از توابع توزیع چندمتغیره کلاسیک می باشد. اما در استفاده از این توابع مشخص بودن توزیع های حاشیه ای و یکسان بودن نوع آنها الزامی بوده و لذا استفاده از این روش با محدودیت مواجه است. روش مناسبنر برای تحلیل های چندمتغیره که بر محدودیت های توابع چندمتغیره کلاسیک فایق آمده است، استفاده از توابع مفصل می باشد. در نوشتار حاضر، تحلیل فراوانی دومتغیره سیلاب با متغیرهای دبی اوج و حجم رواناب و با استفاده از یک تابع مفصل مناسب با نام Frank انجام شده، نتایج این تابع مفصل با تابع لگ نرمال دومتغیره به عنوان یک تابع کلاسیک مقایسه شده و دوره بازگشت های توأم به دست آمده است.

The excess female infant mortality observed in South Asia has typically been attributed to gender discrimination in the intra-household allocation of food and medical care. However, studies on child nutrition find no evidence of gender differences. A natural explanation could be that in environments of high infant mortality of females, the surviving children are healthier, so that child nutrition cannot be studied independently of mortality. In this paper, we use data from the 2004 Bangladesh Demographic Health Survey to investigate if there are any gender differences in survival probabilities, and whether this leads to consequent differences in child nutrition. We argue the importance of establishing whether or not there exists a dependence relationship between the two random variables -infant mortality and child nutrition -and in order to detect this we employ a copula approach to model specification. The results suggest that male children have a significantly lower likelihood of surviving their first year. However, conditional on survival, they have better height-for-age Z-scores. From a policy perspective, household wealth and public health interventions such as vaccinations are found to be important predictors of better survival and nutritional outcomes.

Las cópulas constituyen una nueva manera para modelar la estructura de correlación entre variables aleatorias. Durante los últimos cuarenta años las cópulas han jugado un papel importante en varias áreas de la estadística, pero ha sido sólo recientemente cuando las cópulas se han aplicado en modelos de simulación estocástica. Las cópulas son funciones que describen dependencias entre variables, y son un medio apropiado para crear distribuciones de datos multivariados correlacionados. Mediante cópulas, se puede construir una distribución multivariada especificando las distribuciones marginales univariadas, y elegir una cópula particular para proveer una estructura de correlación entre variables. La elección de una cópula en una aplicación puede estar basada en los datos reales observados o se pueden usar diferentes cópulas como una manera de determinar la sensibilidad de los resultados de la simulación. En el presente trabajo se explora como usar las cópulas para simular datos bivariados dependientes con diferentes patrones de correlación usando un enfoque de Monte-Carlo. En particular, se usará una t-cópula bivariada y el modelo empírico de las distribuciones marginales junto con diferentes medidas de asociación tales como la de Kendall y la de Spearman. Además, se presenta una breve discusión sobre como producir cosimulaciones geoestadísticas dependientes empleando cópulas. Finalmente, se muestran algunos resultados numéricos de la aplicación de esta metodología para datos petrofísicos en los

Many popular estimators for duration models require independent competing risks or independent censoring. In contrast, copula based estimators are also consistent in presence of dependent competing risks. In this paper we suggest a computationally convenient extension of the Copula Graphic Estimator (Zheng and Klein, 1995) to a model with more than two dependent competing risks. We analyse the applicability of this estimator by means of simulations and real world unemployment duration data from Germany. We obtain evidence that our estimator yields nice results if the dependence structure is known and that it is a powerful tool for the assessment of the relevance of (in-)dependence assumptions in applied duration research.

Uma das maneiras clássicas para se representar uma estrutura em árvore é através da forma gráfica utilizando círculos interligados por arestas. Esta representação ilustra a hierarquia entre os nós sendo o nó raiz e seus descendentes a árvore em si.

Ser and estar: The syntax of stage level and individual level predicates in Spanish * Studying the relevant works concerning the distinction between stage level and individual level predicates (SLP/ILP) in linguistics, one often encounters references to the Spanish copular verbs ser and estar (e.g. . In these copular verbs, the SLP/ILP-distinction seems to find its overt realization. The use of the verb ser is usually connected to ILP-characteristics, the use of estar to the SLP-phenomenon. We propose a minimalist account for the differences in semantic and syntactic behaviour of ser/estar (following Chomsky 1995). Contrary to Kratzer (1995), we assume an implicitly realized event argument for both SLPs and ILPs, which characterizes the spatiotemporal reference of the situation or eventuality expressed by the predicate (cf. Davidson 1967). This event position is localized in the predication phrase PrP as proposed by . The PrP represents an extension of the VP-shell analysis (s. Larson 1988) to non-verbal predication, as found in copulative constructions. We assume that complex interactions between the features of the Pr-head and the features of the minimalist T° (I°) (and probably also the C°) will result in either the SLP or the ILP interpretation. The Spanish data concerning ser and estar allow us to analyse the syntactical conditions which lead to the SLP/ILP-distinction, making the correlation between syntactic and semantic behaviour evident. We propose that both ser and estar are syntactical default strategies (last resort). If the predicate is a SLP and no verb is available in the numeration, then estar will be introduced into the derivation under Pr°. If the predicate is an ILP and no verb is available in the numeration, then ser will be merged under T°. Quantificational approaches to times, especially reference time are also taken into consideration. Where the SLP/ILP-distinction is not expressed syntactically (by ser or estar) we assume that the chosen interpretation results from spatiotemporal knowledge of the world, i.e. it is conditioned by pragmatics (s.

This is the introduction to my master's thesis Grammaticization of pronominal copulas in Aramaic and the table of contents. Please contact me if you would like to read the whole thesis or parts of it. The thesis discusses the grammaticization/grammaticalization of the pronominal copulas in Aramaic from Old Aramaic up to the modern Aramaic languages (excluding NENA) under a general perspective of grammaticalization theory.

The paper is devoted to description of component conditional distributions of arbitrary multi-variate distribution assuming that dependence structure is driven by a Gaussian (normal) copula. Examples with Student t marginal distributions are provided, with application to financial assets study.

En uno de sus trabajos sobre ser y estar, Claudia Maienborn se hace eco de una divertida afirmación con la que un profesor de la Universidad de Wisconsin, Luis Crespo, abría un artículo publicado en la revista Hispania allá por 1946: "Estoy por creer que el verbo estar es el anarquista más grande que ha cruzado el Atlántico" (Crespo 1946: 45).

This work is a descriptive grammar of Denjongke, or Sikkimese Bhutia (also known as Lhoke or Sikkimese) (ISO 639-3 sip), an endangered Tibeto-Burman, Tibetic language spoken in the Indian state of Sikkim. The study is based on original fieldwork conducted over more than six years. The theoretical framework is functionalist-typological and may further be characterized as an application of Basic Linguistic Theory. The discussion is data-oriented and aims to describe Denjongke in its own terms.

The grammar begins with an introduction to the language and the people who speak it and continues with a description of phonology and an introduction to word classes, suffixes and clitics. The remainder of the grammar presents a mainly functionally-oriented description, starting with phrase-level syntax and proceeding through clausal syntax to discourse. The last chapter on vocabulary and the texts in the appendix provide a cultural window into Denjongke speakers' life.

Denjongke is an incipient tone language with 43 consonants and eight vowels. Nasalization and length are contrastive in vowels. The analysis establishes four major word classes (nouns, verbs, adjectives and adverbs) and eleven minor word classes. Many nouns and verbs have ordinary and honorific equivalents. Controlled vs. non-controlled verbs occur in phonologically related pairs. Unlike many Tibetic languages, Denjongke does not make a clusivity distinction in first person plural pronouns. There are five case-marking enclitics some of which may be stacked.

In syntax, the marking of A argument shows signs of both syntactic and pragmatic control. The marking of P argument is sensitive to animacy, specificity and affectedness. Denjongke has a rich array of copula forms, which mark three evidential values: personal, sensorial and neutral. The semantically oriented category “personal” differs from the more syntactically-oriented Lhasa Tibetan category “egophoric”.

Denjongke is a clause-chaining language and has a wide variety of adverbial clauses, which are expressed through various constructions, including ten converbs. Relative clauses are a subclass of genitive-marked constituent-modifying clauses. The last chapter addresses some interesting features of Denjongke lexicon, including ideophones, i.e. vividly descriptive words which are semantically, phonologically and morphologically distinct from other words.

This study provides an analysis of copular and existential sentences in Biblical Hebrew (BH). Biblical Hebrew uses three constructions for copular predication. One construction utilises a finite form of the BH copula hyh. The second constructioncalled the verbless (or nominal) clausejuxtaposes subject and predicate without any verbal form. A third construction is a verbless clause which contains a pronominal element (called PRON) and is found in very limited environments.

Cet article présente un survol les techniques usuelles de modélisation de séries nancières multiples. Pus spéciquement, on cherchera a obtenir une extention multivariée des modèles GARCH. Dans un premier temps, nous verrons comment modéliser la dynamique de la matrice de corrélation (conditionnelle), puis nous verrons comment généraliser cette approche à des lois conditionnelles plus générales, construites à l'aide de copules (et s'aranchir ainsi de l'hypoth`ese de lois elliptiques). Les principaux concepts présentés dans cet article seront illustrés sur des séries de rendements de prix du pétrole (Brent, Dubaï et Maya).

In this article, we examine the omnipredicativity hypothesis (Launey 1994, 2004) in the context of
Yucatec Maya.The hypothesis implies three requirements: 1) most words are predicative, 2) the focus of
a sentence is its main predicate, 3) arguments are subordinate predicates of the main predicate. Based on
the analysis of the personal indexation patterns, morphosyntactic and semantic properties of non-verbal
predicates, the use of the existential yàan and various focus constructions, we provide evidence supporting
that requirements 1 and 2 apply to Yucatec.

The present paper falls within a question that is wider than that of the simple behaviour of ellipsis in some specific verb(s). That general frame refers to the particular behaviour of the verb sum, especially applied to its copulative-attributive use. As is known, traditional grammar has tended to diminish its semantic content; in more recent approaches and from different perspectives the ‘Copula support’ Theory has been gaining ground. Depending on the language of reference, and according to this theory, the copula can be considered even something less than a mere carrier of the categories of person, mood, time or aspect. From this point of view the verb ‘be’ would behave in a different way from other verbs, even in the way of organizing its valencies: in a sentence as such Alexander erat rex Macedonnum, we would have to consider erat rex Macedonum as a syntactic unit in accordance with its equivalence to expressions like regnat.
In a different study  I tried to analyze this approach from a positive point of view: different ‘predicational’ types of sum were proposed according to its qualitative and quantitative valency and semantic notion. The gradation of the semantic content that the verb sum is able to express was shown so that we can appreciate a fluctuation between the more or less scarce value the verb sum has in some constructions and the full value that it has in existential ones.
In the present paper, the analysis of the resource to ellipsis is taken as a tool to provide a particular support for the previous proposal. Leaving aside a detailed examination of the phenomenon of ellipsis, this concept will be handled here in a wide sense to refer to one constituent of the sentence structure more or less recoverable from the extra- or intralinguistic context, including those cases in which ambiguity is possible or even sought by the author with different purposes. From this approach it is inferred that we accept the existence of a gradation in the recoverability of the elliptical element. In this sense, we count on the distinction between the ‘pure nominal sentence’ and the ‘sentence without verb’; this analysis is about the second type.
Traditional grammar and also more recent studies reckon that the copulative-atributive verb is that in which ellipsis occurs chiefly or even in a unique way, due to its scarce or void semantic content; as things are, it is of interest to study up to what point the omission is predictable and the conditions under which this omission takes place.
Essentially the present study is intended to show the following: (i) if and up to what point the ellipsis of the verb is a distinctive feature of sum and other verbs that can own an attributive use in a qualitative sense, but it could affect other verbs with a full semantic content; (ii) are there cases in which the observed ambiguity cannot be solved in a sure and univocal way?
The object of this study has added difficulties if we bear in mind that the copula is present in some languages and absent in others —at least in the 3rd person— and that the fact under study is precisely a lexical absence, with all the problems that this implies.
The basic corpus of study will be, on the one hand, the comedy of Plautus and Terence, and on the other hand, the letters of Cicero, although we will make concrete references to other literary genres, authors and languages. The chosen option counts on particular advantages, such as the abundance of ellipsis in texts where dialogue and monologue, narration and description, speakers with different language registers, etc., co-exist.
As for the methodology, we start from specific texts in which we can appreciate a more or less clear verb ellipsis and so —if convenient or necessary— to be able to restore the hypothetically omitted form through several criteria. Afterwards, in some cases we will test if the ellipsis of verba dicendi, faciendi or movendi, among others, occurs in structures similar to those which are frequently more attested for the ellision of sum forms.
This analysis allows us to affirm that: (i) the ellipsis of finite forms of sum or other verbs with similar uses (monstror, appareo, exsto, etc.) can be abundant in some structures —especially the copulative-attributive ones— but not always the most frequent (cf. Tables 2 and 3).; (ii) verb ellipsis occurs with verbs having a full semantic content in concrete constructions (structures of question-answer, constructions with adjectives or adverbs, formulaic expressions or cases of change of discourse topic; (iii) the ambiguity provided by ellipsis occurs in a gradual way, so that the restitution of the omitted word is not always possible in a unique and sure way.
In short, these facts seem to imply that we can observe in the copulative verb “par excellence” a similar behaviour to that of other verbs which do not share that copulative nature, at least to the same degree. Consequently, and in one of the uses of sum, the full verbal nature of this verb cannot be denied; a nature similar to that of other verbs such as the factive ones.

This article gives an overview on the structure of nominal clauses, in particular of non-verbal predicates, in East Gurage and Gunnän Gurage languages. After introductory remarks on the distribution and classification of the Gurage languages, general morpho-syntactic information on nominal clauses in Gurage languages is provided. Then the structure of non-verbal predicates in East Gurage and in a number of selected Gunnän Gurage languages is discussed in detail with regard to the probable functional origin of the copula morphemes involved.

A general consensus has emerged that the copula הָיָה licenses tense, aspect, and mood (TAM) in Biblical Hebrew (BH) and can also be used as a ‘true verb’ meaning become, happen, exist, etc. Exactly which features are licensed by הָיָה, however, has not been demonstrated in an exhaustive study. This article­—based on an exhaustive study of הָיָה in BH—demonstrates exactly which TAM features and environments control the manifestation of הָיָה. The ‘true verb’ function of הָיָה can also be understood in a uniform way typical of auxiliaries. A thorough discussion of the roles of הָיָה also requires distinguishing predicational sentences from existential sentences. The semantics of existentials in BH also explains the function of הָיָה in many examples. Readers of BH will find that most finite forms of הָיָה in the Hebrew Bible can be explained using one of the conditions specified in this article.

JEL classification: C58 G01 G15 Q02 Keywords: Time varying dependence Copula Breaks Commodity Stock market a b s t r a c t This paper examines the time-varying conditional dependency between commodity markets and stock markets by applying the rolling-sample technique on the dependence parameter of copula. The dataset consists of the closing prices of twelve commodities and the SP500, CAC40, DAX30 and FTSE100 indices during the period from July 7, 1992 to February 17, 2015. To date precisely the breakpoints in the dynamics of the copula parameter of dependence, we employ Bai and Perron's (BP, 1998, 2003) structural break-testing procedure. Our empirical findings show that among the seven copulas investigated, the Student's t-copula is more appropriate for modelling dependency. Moreover, the BP procedure shows strong evidence of time-varying behaviour in the parameter of dependence. The results show that the dates of breaks correspond to economic and financial events, such as the global financial crisis and crude oilprice fluctuations.

The Indo-European languages, spread in ancient times over large parts of Eurasia and in recent times over large parts of the world, have emanated, according to the views of nearly all specialists, in prehistoric times from a small territory somewhere near the seam between Asia and Europe. Since all other parts of the double continent suitable for human settlement were already populated by non-Indo-European peoples by the time of the Indo-European expansion, all or nearly all historical Indo-European languages must have been in contact with non-Indo-European languages in prehistoric times, and this is certainly so for Europe north of the Central Divide, the mountain ranges separating central, west, and northern Europe from southern Europe: the Pyrenees and the Alps.

This study explores the possibility that the so-called ang-morphs, i.e., the phonologically reduced forms of independent personal pronouns in Coptic, are copulas. The literature states that Coptic has copulas that are derived from demonstrative pronouns, but there is no argument that the ang-morphs are copulas. However, these reduced forms are only used in nominal sentences, and they show a strong paradigmatic parallel-ism with the pe copulas. In order to indicate this, first, I typologized the grammaticalization patterns of copulas of diverse languages across the world, with reference to the literature on linguistic typology. I determined that there are three types of grammaticalization of copulas: (1) from an existential verb, (2) from a demonstrative pronoun, and (3) from a personal pronoun. Various languages have Type 3 copulas. Specifically, Classical Syriac has the phonologically reduced forms of the independent personal pronouns as copulas. Their phonological reduction and semantic breaching are similar to the ang-morphs in Sahidic. From this typological point of view, the ang-morphs have the potential to be seen as copulas. Next, I conducted a corpus research on the digitized version of the Sahidic New Testament. The results show that anok ang-NP sentences occur with indefinite NPs, and that the anok pe NP sentences tend to occur with definite NPs. Thus, we can see the paradigmatic relationship of the ang-morphs and the pe copulas in these copulative sentences. Finally, I explored the degree of grammaticalization of the ang-morphs. The dialectal and historical research suggests that Sahidic and Mesokemic have the most reduced forms of the ang-morphs, and the equivalents to the Coptic anok ang-NP sentences in Demotic and Late Egyptian are rare. These factors suggest a high possibility that the grammaticalization of the ang-morphs as copulas from independent personal pronouns in Later Egyptian were most developed in Sahidic and Mesokemic.

This paper reassesses the widespread claim in Hebrew linguistics that the medial third person pronoun in the "subject NP + pronoun + predicate" construction in Israeli Hebrew functions either as copula, or as a referential subject in an extrap-ositional sentence. Based on the examination of this construction in Hebrew conversation , as represented in The Corpus of Spoken Israeli Hebrew (CoSIH), and based on theoretical considerations, the paper argues that the distinction between copular and referential uses of medial third person pronouns is not justified, leading to the conclusion that apparent "copular" third person pronouns are in fact a second realization of the subject referent, and that sentences containing such pronouns are better viewed as cases of subject doubling. This paper positions subject doubling in the context of typology and language acquisition, and argues for the need to analyze it using natural data, focusing on speaker-and listener-oriented motivations.

A new approach is proposed to identify trading opportunities in the equity market by using the information contained in the bivariate dependence structure of two equities. The relationships between the equity pairs are modelled with bivariate copulas and the fitted copula structures are utilised to identify the trading opportunities. Two trading strategies are considered that take advantage of the relative mispricing between a pair of correlated stocks and involve taking a position on the stocks when they diverge from their historical relationship. The position is then reversed when the two stocks revert to their historical relationship. Only stock-pairs with relatively high correlations are considered. The dependence structures of the chosen stock-pairs very often exhibited both upper- and lower-tail dependence, which implies that copulas with the correct characteristics should be more effective than the more traditional approaches typically applied. To identify trading opportuniti...

By Adam BENKATO & Christophe PEREIRA

Research on copulas in Arabic dialects has hitherto largely focused on the pronominal copula, and has also mostly ignored Maghrebi dialects. Drawing on published literature as well as fieldwork-based corpora, this article identifies and analyzes a hitherto undescribed verbal copula in dialects of Tunisian and northwestern Libya deriving from the verb yabda (“to begin”). We show that copular yabda occurs mostly in predicational copular sentences, with time reference including the habitual present and generic future. It takes nominal, adjectival, and locational predicate types. We also argue for broader inclusion of syntactic isoglosses in Arabic dialectology, and show how copular yabda crosses the traditional isogloss lines established on the basis of phonology, morphology, or lexicon, and therefore contradicts established dialect classifications such as Bedouin/sedentary or Tunisian/Libyan.

A typical finite clause in English has a single constituent that serves as subject.  This constituent precedes the finite verb in non-inverted clauses like simple declarative clauses, follows the finite verb in inverted clauses like polar questions, agrees in person and number with the finite verb and with a tag subject when a tag is present, undergoes subject raising, and so on (Postal 2004).  Five constructions violate these generalizations and in the literature have called into question the identity of the subject constituent. In each of these five constructions the finite verb agrees with a following constituent in a declarative clause despite the fact, among others, that the constituent preceding the verb exhibits subject behaviors of the kind identified by Keenan (1976). To the authors’ knowledge, despite intensive analysis of several of these patterns, the group as a whole has not been subject to prior study. The constructions are: Presentational Inversion (e.g., On the porch stood marble pillars), Presentational there (e.g., The earth was now dry, and there grew a tree in the middle of the earth, Deictic there (e.g., Here comes the bus), Existential there (e.g., There’s a big problem here) and Reversed Equative be (e.g., The only thing we’ve taken back recently are plants). The approach of Sign-Based Construction Grammar (Sag 2012) enables us to establish precisely what all five patterns have in common and what is particular to each, revealing that a constructional, constraint-based approach can extract the correct grammatical generalizations, not only in ‘core’ areas of a grammar, but also in the hard cases, where concepts such as subject, which readily handle the more tractable facts, fail to fit the facts at hand.  We see further that the five split-subject patterns, sometimes identified as clausal, yield to a strictly lexical analysis.

[sic. also known as: DE, tone and property items in Nigerian Pidgin]

In this paper I will describe the domain of attributive (copular) sentences in Nigerian Pidgin (NigP). Attributive clauses are sentences where a certain property is associated with a subject. In most Indo-European languages these types of sentences need copulas as predicate markers since property items do not normally behave predicatively and are syntactically coded as “adjectives”. However, this is not the case for all the world’s languages. In NigP we find attributive clauses where the property item behaves verbally, as the head of the predicate slot,, yet we also find attributive copular clauses where the copula 'de' is followed by the same property item. In NigP the verb de is a locative and existential predicate also performing the role of attributive copula as in example 2. The verb 'de' is distinguished from the imperfective marker 'dè' by means of tone: locative/existential verbs 'dé' are spelled with a high tone and all imperfective markers 'dè' are spelled with a relatively lower pitch tone. The variation in the attributive domain questions the syntactic nature of the elements expressing the property. Elements such as 'cheap', 'happy', 'sick' or 'good' can be alternatively used in NigP as verbs or adjectives and this is why I adopted here the more neutral term of “property items”.  The central aim of this work is deal with the distribution of the attributive copula 'de' in NigP, to describe the conditions for its insertion in attributive contexts and the semantics/syntactic changes its insertion entails.

This paper has two aims. First, we study the impact of oil price variables (change and volatility)
on stock market returns under regime shifts in the case of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)
countries. We employ a Markov regime-switching model to generate regime probabilities for
oil market variables. We use two state Markov switching models: crisis regime and non-crisis
regime. Second, we investigate the non-linear relationship among oil price, interest rates and
inflation rates before and during the subprime crisis. We consider several Archimedean copula
models with different tail dependence structures, namely, Gumbel, Clayton and Frank copulas.
We find evidence that the relationship between GCC stock market returns and OPEC oil market
volatility is regime dependent (excluding Oman in the low volatility state). We also find that
the dependence structure between inflation rates and crude oil prices is asymmetric and
orients toward the upper side during the recent financial crisis. Furthermore, we find evidence
of significant symmetric dependence between crude oil prices and the short-term interest rate
during the financial crisis. These paper's results have practical significance and important
implications for both GCC economic policy and financial stability.

Mandarin, as other classifier languages, usually requires a classifier when numerals, quantifiers, or demonstratives are present, but also allows bare classifier-nouns (CL-N) without any determiners. This paper examines two empirical questions: (i) What is the structure of CL-N that can account for its behavior? (ii) Under what conditions are bare CL-Ns acceptable? Following Borer's Exo-Skeletal framework, I draw a parallel between Mandarin classifiers and the English plural. Mandarin ben shu 'CL book' and English books both are CLASSIFIER PHRASES carrying no quantity information. Numeral-classifier-nouns (Num-CL-Ns), such as san ben shu 'three books,' are QUANTITY * I am very grateful to my doctoral advisor, Prof. Cristina Schmitt, for comments and discussions on earlier versions of this paper. I thank the anonymous reviewers and the managing editor for comments. Any remaining mistakes are solely mine.

SHI in Mandarin Chinese has been the focus of research due to its wide range of application, and the particular interest of it falls on the comparison of the Chinese "SHI…DE" construction and the English it-cleft construction . However, there exists another special construction of SHI entitled to receive equal attention, that is, "X SHI X, Ke-shi Y" (XSXKY hereafter). By investigating its syntactic properties and semantic generalizations, this paper intends to demonstrate XSXKY as a whole constitutes a constructional idiom in Construction Grammar

Constituents generically called Secondary predicates or Predicativa have raised an increasing interest in recent years both in general linguistics as in the field of Latin linguistics. Although some progress has been made, the issue continues to pose questions and problems of a different nature. This paper aims at (i) to present briefly the main problems which arise in dealing with the study of the secondary predicates in previous research from different linguistic approaches and, in the light of that scenario, (ii) to propose some ways of analysis which can be useful in the description and characterization of such predicates, basically in the Latin language. Aspects such as the analysis of the formal type that code the Praedicativum and its implications, the pragmatic relevance of this function and the ordering of the constuents involved in the contexts in which it appears or the application of different test of disambiguation reveal as criteria that can shed light on a so controversial function.

This project will investigate how one could model the loss distribution and calculate the risk measures Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall for a portfolio of European options. To do so, Monte Carlo methods will be implemented. There are two main drawbacks associated with Monte Carlo simulations, the first being the computational complexity and the second the estimation risk. These problems will be addressed separately. The former is tackled via Importance Sampling while the latter via Entropy Pooling.

A new approach is proposed to identify trading opportunities in the equity market by using the information contained in the bivariate dependence structure of two equities. The relationships between the equity pairs are modelled with bivariate copulas and the fitted copula structures are utilised to identify the trading opportunities. Two trading strategies are considered that take advantage of the relative mispricing between a pair of correlated stocks and involve taking a position on the stocks when they diverge from their historical relationship. The position is then reversed when the two stocks revert to their historical relationship. Only stock-pairs with relatively high correlations are considered. The dependence structures of the chosen stock-pairs very often exhibited both upper- and lower-tail dependence, which implies that copulas with the correct characteristics should be more effective than the more traditional approaches typically applied. To identify trading opportuniti...

This paper offers a corpus analysis of the Russian verb быть ‘be’ which has an abnormal present tense paradigm including a zero form BE.PRES and overt forms есть.BE.PRES and суть.BE.PRES which do not discriminate person and number and are distributed syntactically. I discuss different approaches to the grammar of быть and argue that Apresjan’s model which recognizes ZERO.BE.PRES,  есть.BE.PRES and суть.BE.PRES as parts of one and the same lemma is superior to alternative models splitting быть split into two lemmas representing copula vs content verb ‘be’. The peripheral status of overt present BE-forms compared with ZERO.BE.PRES in the Russian National Corpus is confirmed by three measures: 1) dispersion of texts where a BE-form occurs; 2) uneven coverage in different persons and numbers; 3) ratio of copular uses vs content verb uses. 1-2 person present tense BE-forms attested in RNC are internal borrowings from Old Russian and Old Church Slavonic, while есть.BE.PRES and суть.BE.PRES are inherited 3rd person elements which take over 1-2 person uses. The historical 3Pl суть is redundant in a system, where a more frequent 3rd person form есть is licensed in the plural: it survives by a minority of speakers either as an optional 3Pl copula in formal discourse or as an emphatic copula in oral discourse. The form есть.BE.PRES occurs in all persons and numbers both as content verb and as copula but is underrepresented as 3Pl copula: this gap is filled by ZERO.BE.PRES. The frequency of the zero copula  can be measured in corpora without syntactic annotation on the basis of systemic proportion between present vs past tense uses of быть and on the basis of approximation samples for contexts where overt copulas alternate with ZERO.BE.PRES.

We proposed a strategic asset allocation framework in which forward-looking views on various fixed income asset-classes are developed on volatilities rather than returns. Such methodology rely on some powerful and practical tools such as asymmetric and non-linear univariate GARCH models linked by elliptic copulas. In such scheme, the portfolio construction process is fully driven by the new information brought by the data without any restriction on the calibration of the dynamic matrix of volatilities.

We think that such approach has the advantage of bringing flexibility to asset managers to strategically adjust their portfolio compositions in a timely fashion with an effective control on the tail risks. The robustness of the proposed methodology was controlled by Cholesky Monte-Carlo simulations and various VaR and CVaR computation. That said, the classic framework of Mean-Variance optimization could be very restrictive practically due to its well-known drawbacks, and other frameworks of optimization should be explored.

Key words: Dynamic Strategic Asset Allocation; GARCH; EGARCH; COGARCH; Copula; Value-at-Risk; tail risk; Portfolio construction; Quantitative strategies;

Типология морфосинтаксических параметров. Материалы международной конференции. /Ред.: М.Б. Коношенко, Е.А. Лютикова, А.В. Циммерлинг.Выпуск 3. М.: МПГУ, 2016. -- с. 96-112.

Tupí-Guaraní (and a few other Tupí) languages manifest a distinctive construction of predicative possession, minimally consisting of the possessee noun marked with a pronominal prefix cross-referencing the possessor. Some authors suggested analyzing such structures as existential clauses containing a zero copula. In this paper, I attempt to show that such an analysis is not viable for Paraguayan Guaraní. After a brief summary of the modern typology of predicative possession (§1) and the distinctive Tupí-Guaraní pattern (§2), I outline basic facts of predicative possession in Paraguayan Guaraní (§3), and provide arguments against the zero copula hypothesis (§4), drawing evidence from distribution of cross-reference markers, locus of predicative inflection, and possessor accessibility for questioning and relativization. Some of these arguments have not previously brought into discussion of predicative possession in Tupí-Guaraní and thus open new avenues for further comparative and language-specific research.

В языках тупи-гуарани (и некоторых других тупи) имена, маркированные посессивным префиксом, могут употребляться в предикативной позиции для выражения значения обладания. Некоторыми исследователями предлагалось трактовать такие конструкции как экзистенциальные, содержащие невыраженную связку. В настоящей статье оспаривается адекватность подобного анализа для парагвайского гуарани. После краткого обзора современной типологии посессивной предикации (§1) и обсуждения специфической стратегии, представленной в языках тупи-гуарани (§2), мы очерчиваем главные особенности посессивной предикации в парагвайском гуарани (§3), а затем предлагаем ряд аргументов против гипотезы о нулевой связке (§4), опираясь на дистрибуцию прономинальных показателей, локус маркирования предикативных категорий и доступность посессора в качестве мишени wh-вопросов и релятивизации. Некоторые из этих аргументов ранее не привлекались к дискуссии о посессивной предикации в языках тупи-гуарани; тем самым, наши данные открывают новые направления для сравнительных и конкретно-языковых исследований.

In this talk, we deal with locative and existential constructions in three Uralic languages: Hungarian (Ugric), Udmurt (Permic) and Tundra Nenets (Samoyedic). Despite their genetic relatedness, these languages are syntactically/typologically diverse and areally distant. Our aim is to provide a comparison and analysis of these languages, based on data from corpora and elicitation, and to account for the variation between them. The languages we examine show variation along the following lines:

(i) whether we find the same copular/existential (verbal) elements in the two types of clauses and what their distribution is like;
(ii) whether the copulas can show (obligatory/optional) person agreement and tense morphology;
(iii) whether word order differences can be observed across the constructions.

To ascertain the viability of a project, undertake resource allocation, take part in bidding processes and similar project related decisions, modern project management requires forecasting techniques for costs, duration and performance of a project, not only under normal circumstances, but also under external events that might abruptly change the status quo. We provide a Bayesian framework for such problem, in which we predict the probability and the impact of various disruptive events and, consequently, a global forecast of project performance. We focus on project costs to introduce the methodology, but the ideas apply equally to project duration or performance forecasting.

Copulas erfreuen sich in der Finanzwirtschaft wachsender Beliebtheit. Ursache hierfür ist insbesondere die Möglichkeit, mit ihrer Hilfe nicht-lineare Abhängigkeitsstrukturen darzustellen. Ein weiterer Vorteil besteht darin, dass multivariate Verteilungen mit Hilfe von Copulas separat in ihre Randverteilungen und in ihre Abhängigkeitsstruktur zerlegt werden können. Damit ist die Untersuchung der Abhängigkeitsstruktur losgelöst von Annahmen über die Randverteilungen. Diese Flexibilität ermöglicht die Anwendung von Copulas in zahlreichen Bereichen der Finanzwirtschaft, vom Risikomanagement über die Bewertung von komplexen Finanzprodukten bis zur Portfoliooptimierung. Die vorliegende Arbeit dient zum Einen als didaktischer Einstieg in die Copulathematik und stellt zum Anderen die aktuellen Forschungsergebnisse aus den genannten Bereichen vor.