African Politics by Theo Neethling
The Conversation, 2024
China's relationship with Africa is vital to Beijing's efforts to expand its influence in the wes... more China's relationship with Africa is vital to Beijing's efforts to expand its influence in the western dominated world order. China is Africa's most significant trading partner and a crucial source of continental investment. Hence the importance of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation to both. The forum's summit, taking place every three years, provides a platform for China to show off its global influence, and for African nations, both individually and collectively, to engage with the world's second-largest economy on political and economic matters. This year's summit is an opportunity for Africa to find a way through the challenges of the post-COVID era. Previous summits have yielded tangible benefits for African nations.
Strategic Review for Southern Africa, 2024
Since 1994 the South African government's commitment to peace and security in Africa inexorably d... more Since 1994 the South African government's commitment to peace and security in Africa inexorably drew the South African National Defence Force (SANDF) into extensive involvement in multinational peacekeeping operations. These external operations clearly aligned the South African government with its articulated objectives concerning the pursuit of peace on the African continent and its (moral) intention and responsibility to act in a leading role on the continent. However, a dwindling defence budget and the burden of a high-tech force design increasingly impacted negatively on the SANDF to maintain and develop a sustainable capability geared for regional external operations. Yet, in the domestic context the government also increasingly expected the SANDF to render support to the SAPS as murder and death rates are comparable and, in some instances, even higher than death rates in high-intensity war zones in the international community. This simply means that the SANDF has the almost impossible task of balancing its demanding regional deployments with ongoing appeals by politicians and elements of the public for the SANDF to be of assistance in hotspots of high levels of criminality where the SAPS is unable to protect South Africans in accordance with the requirements of the Constitution. In the final analysis, the article concludes that there is a mismatch between what has been expected of the SANDF in the past three decades from its political masters on the one side, and its budget and related capabilities on the other.
This paper examines the manifestation and problems relating to the Islamist insurgencies of Boko ... more This paper examines the manifestation and problems relating to the Islamist insurgencies of Boko Haram in northeastern Nigeria, and Ansar al-Sunna in northern Mozambique. The thrust of the paper is that Islamist movements, driven by the ideas of jihadism, exploit conditions in weak and fragile states and expand their reach in territories affected by poor or deteriorating socioeconomic conditions. In Africa, Boko Haram and Ansar al-Sunna are two striking examples. Following the introduction, the phenomena of Islamism and jihadist insurgencies in Africa are under review, after which state fragility is theorised. The focus then moves to Boko Haram and the conflict dynamics in the northeast of Nigeria, and the political conditions and related fragility in that country. From there, the emphasis shifts to Ansar al-Sunna and the conflict dynamics in northern Mozambique, focusing on the emergence and existence of the movement, and the political conditions and related fragility in the country. The paper argues that in both insurgencies under review-Nigeria and Mozambique-fragility and violent conflict fuel each other, and thus we can argue that the state fragility-conflict dynamics nexus is key in understanding the contemporary security landscapes and conflict in these two states. Finally, the paper concludes by highlighting and reflecting on six of the most striking similarities between the Boko Haram and Ansar al-Sunna insurgencies, and the governance (political and military) challenges that have thus far limited or prevented successful counter-insurgency measures in both countries.
Strategic Review for Southern Africa, 2022
This article attempts to identify the opportunities and risks associated with China's Belt and Ro... more This article attempts to identify the opportunities and risks associated with China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in Africa. Given the global scope and depth of the BRI, it is of considerable importance to understand how this initiative applies to developing economies in the African context. The article provides a brief historical context of the BRI, followed by a short theoretical framework, specifically in the scholarly field of International Relations. The article then expounds on the opportunities the BRI could create for Africa, such as improving infrastructure, assisting in African industrialisation and economic advancement, as well as introducing beneficial diplomatic initiatives. The article also examines the strategic risks associated with the BRI, such as unsustainable debt concerns, concerns regarding the effect of an increasing trade deficit on domestic markets, as well as risks pertaining to large-scale infrastructure development.
The Conversation, 2022
The question is whether South Africa is once again turning a blind eye – even giving legitimacy –... more The question is whether South Africa is once again turning a blind eye – even giving legitimacy – to a great injustice, for political expediency.
The World Financial Review, 2022
Foreign military involvement cannot be divorced
from two major governance problems on the contine... more Foreign military involvement cannot be divorced
from two major governance problems on the continent.
Several home-grown insurgencies in African states underscore
the disconnect between military mandates and related
capacities on the one hand, and actual security threats on
the other. Another major problem is that there is a lack of continental consensus among African leaders and,
at the level of the AU, on the modalities for regulating
foreign security and military activities.
The Conversation, 2021
South Africa’s standing in the annual Fund for Peace’s Fragile State Index is cause for concern. ... more South Africa’s standing in the annual Fund for Peace’s Fragile State Index is cause for concern. It has moved from stable in 2006 to warning in 2021. This clearly indicates a much higher level of political risk in the country.
Conflict Tends, 2021
There is little doubt that the Mozambican government lacks full control of the entire geographica... more There is little doubt that the Mozambican government lacks full control of the entire geographical territory that constitutes the country. The ability to control and govern fully is arguably a basic element of territorial sovereignty. This reality underlies the many challenges that have been outlined in this analysis, specifically Islamic militancy, a weak FDS and poor security responses to the militant threats, high levels of insecurity, and criminal networks. It also underlies the landscape of poverty, low socioeconomic development, and deprivation – conditions that facilitated Al Sunnah wa Jama’ah becoming a force in pursuit of a caliphate in a part of the country. Any long-term solution in north-eastern Mozambique will, among other things, have to address the problem of limited statehood and good governance, specifically relating to the imperative of controlling the Mozambican territory fully and developing the required institutional capacity to rule and govern the entire country.
The Thinker, 2021
The Cabo Delgado province in the northernmost portion of the long Mozambican seaboard is now home... more The Cabo Delgado province in the northernmost portion of the long Mozambican seaboard is now home to Africa’s three largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects, and these projects have attracted many of the world’s major multinational energy companies, accompanied by massive LNG investments. There can be little doubt that the discovery of rich gas reserves is a potential game changer for the Mozambican economy and development agenda. It is potentially an opportunity for the rapid advancement of a country that currently ranks close to the bottom of the United Nation’s Human Development Index. However, despite the billions in investments from major multinational energy companies, the people of Cabo Delgado are yet to see the material benefit from these projects. One of the biggest risks to investors in the LNG industry is the many unknowns pertaining to the threat posed by the militant Islamic movement, Ansar al-Sunna, which has especially been active since 2017 in the Cabo Delgado province. In view of this, this article assesses Mozambique’s LNG industry and the political risks associated with the insurgent movement’s intention to establish an Islamic caliphate in the Cabo Delgado area.
Routledge Edited Book: Security and Safety in the era of Global Risks , 2021
In recent years Beijing has firmly established its presence in Djibouti through multiple multibil... more In recent years Beijing has firmly established its presence in Djibouti through multiple multibillion infrastructure projects, of which a military support base has been the most notable one. As far as the base is concerned, a 36-hectare military facility has been developed to host several thousand Chinese troops and provide facilities for ships, helicopters and fixed-wing aircraft. Until recently, these types of developments on the African continent have not attracted much international attention, but China’s slow and patient approach has increasingly been noticed and raised questions among scholars and other analysts. Moreover, the case of Djibouti is of particular importance because Djibouti can be regarded as a microcosm of China’s engagement with and endeavours on the African continent. It reflects all of the benefits, drawbacks and controversies relating to Beijing’s political, economic and military footprint in Africa.
Scientia Militaria - South African Journal of Military Studies, 2011
The Conversation, 2021
The Cabo Delgado province in the northernmost part of the long Mozambican seaboard is now home to... more The Cabo Delgado province in the northernmost part of the long Mozambican seaboard is now home to Africa’s three largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects; these projects have attracted many of the world’s major multinational energy companies, accompanied by massive LNG investments. There can be little doubt that the discovery of rich LNG reserves is a potential game changer for Mozambique’s economy and the development agenda of the country. It is potentially an opportunity for the rapid advancement of a country that currently ranks close to the bottom of the United Nation’s Human Development Index. World Bank data annually ranks Mozambique as among the poorest countries in the world.
Journal of African Interdisciplinary Studies (JAIS), 2020
The research question underlying this study relates to the prospects and challenges in managing A... more The research question underlying this study relates to the prospects and challenges in managing Africa's future. In this regard, I review eight variables or indicators from the point of departure that these variables will be critical to the shaping of Africa's future up to 2030-in addition to the challenges brought on by the Covid-19 pandemic. These eight variables are: the empowerment and rise of the individual; new and enabling technology; continental demographics; continental economic interconnectedness; public debt in Africa; global economic power shifts; urbanisation and resource stress in African states; and the effects of global climate change in Africa. I finally argue at least three matters are key to the future of the continent. First, visionary political leaders and policymakers are imperative to ensure and facilitate informed decision-making on challenges relating to matters such as continental economic integration, public debt management, the rise of China and a shift in global power, and climate change. Second, it is imperative for Africa's leadership to ensure that Africans benefit from rapidly accelerating technological change with a view to empowering individuals and creating a larger middle class. Third, a growing and urbanising population is intensifying challenges on creating meaningful job opportunities to address youth unemployment across the continent.
Strategic Review for Southern Africa, 2020
In recent years, Russian President Vladimir Putin increasingly places a high premium on rebuildin... more In recent years, Russian President Vladimir Putin increasingly places a high premium on rebuilding Russia's global influence, which includes a boosting of Russia's relations with the African continent. This coincides with Putin's position that the strengthening of ties with African states is a Russian foreign policy priority. Moreover, there is little doubt that much of Moscow's new involvement in Africa relates to Putin's desire to revive his country's great-power status. The main research question is: What is behind Moscow's renewed push into the continent? Three areas of Russia-Africa relations of special importance are suggested in this article. Firstly, much of Russia's focus on the African continent centres on energy diplomacy. Secondly, Russia is the second largest exporter of arms globally after the United States, and Moscow is a major supplier of weapons and military aid to Africa. Thirdly, the continent is rich in mineral wealth, and Moscow has an economic interest in mineral riches in Africa. This article argues the above-mentioned issues are the main drivers underlying Russia's renewed strategic engagement with the African continent. The article further reflects on whether Russia's foreign policy successes in Africa have been overblown, or whether Russia's renewed engagement with Africa is actually of considerable significance in the global context and from an African point of view.
The Conversation, 2020
Several African governments are hosting foreign military bases. This is despite the African Union... more Several African governments are hosting foreign military bases. This is despite the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council’s ongoing concerns about the proliferation of foreign military bases on the continent. The AU is also concerned about its inability to monitor the movement of weapons to and from these military bases. Regardless, a host of bilateral agreements between AU member states and foreign powers underlie the spread of foreign military forces across the continent.
African Journal on Conflict Resolution, 2019
A growing emphasis on stabilisation and counterterrorism in international peacekeeping operations... more A growing emphasis on stabilisation and counterterrorism in international peacekeeping operations has increasingly become apparent. In Africa, the phenomenon of terrorism has become of special importance in contemporary peacekeeping activities and has significantly influenced the nature and profile of peacekeeping operations on the continent. Bloodshed, death, displacement and destruction caused by terrorism and violent extremism are increasingly posing challenges to peacekeepers in African conflict theatres. In view of this, this article analyses the tasks and contours of two of the most important peacekeeping operations on the African continent, namely those in Mali and Somalia. These operations could be considered laboratories for further exploration and innovation in the African peacekeeping landscape. At the same time, any scholarly discussion on contemporary peacekeeping and counterterrorism would be incomplete without reflections on scholars and analysts who consider an increasing entanglement between peacekeeping and counterterrorism as highly problematic. In this regard, the discussion touches on some of the fundamental questions that have started to surface on the future of United Nations and (to some extent) African Union peacekeeping operations.
African Evaluation Journal, 2019
Background: Parliament, through its oversight function, plays a central role in holding the execu... more Background: Parliament, through its oversight function, plays a central role in holding the executive to account. In South Africa’s 2014 Defence Review policy document, it was stated that the ‘Defence Force is in a critical state of decline’. This brings about the question whether
the South African Parliament effectively held the executive to account regarding developments around defence.
Objectives: The article aims to gather evidence on the use of oversight tools by the South African Parliament over a 20-year period, within the post-1994 democratic dispensation, in order to determine the broader trajectory of parliamentary defence oversight.
Method: To determine the trajectory of oversight, this article gathered evidence on the use of internationally recognised parliamentary oversight tools by South Africa’s two parliamentary defence committees from 1994 to 2014. The period allows for a 20-year review of oversight of
defence, inclusive of four full parliamentary terms. Evidence was collected on parliamentary debates, questions, special inquiries, oversight visits and the use of external audits as oversight tools.
Results: The article found that tools were used with varying degrees of success. Results for research on each oversight tool is discussed.
Conclusion: Based on evidence on the use of oversight tools, this article concludes that over a 20-year period there was a declining trajectory in parliamentary oversight of the defence portfolio. The proven applicability of the criteria utilised in this article can serve to inform evaluations of the effectiveness of parliamentary oversight, specifically at committee level.
The Conversation, 2019
The Russian government and state companies signed dozens of memoranda of understanding and agreem... more The Russian government and state companies signed dozens of memoranda of understanding and agreements during the first Russia-Africa Summit in the Black Sea resort city of Sochi last week. Russia also promised further cooperation, building on recent agreements with individual African governments.
Litnet Akademies, 2019
This article touches on the features of China’s military base in Djibouti and what some observers... more This article touches on the features of China’s military base in Djibouti and what some observers regard as the newly created Chinese gateway to Africa. The drivers underlying China’s deeper levels of strategic engagement with Djibouti in particular, and the African continent in general, and possible future developments or trajectories are especially analysed. The article intends to explore China’s strategic objectives and motivations in Djibouti and what could be considered as a mixing of Chinese military and business interests. The article also reflects on whether the base in Djibouti is intended to serve as a further step in Beijing’s global expansion; a step that could lead to the building of more overseas military bases and thus be instrumental in the extension of China’s global sphere of influence. The article finally touches on current theorising and scholarly reflections in international relations as an academic discipline on how to understand China’s growing engagement with the African continent.
The Conversation, 2018
The recent African Union (AU) summit was overshadowed by peace and security issues. In particular... more The recent African Union (AU) summit was overshadowed by peace and security issues. In particular, the focus was on political instability and armed conflict in Libya, Democratic Republic of Congo, Central African Republic, Mali, Guinea-Bissau, South Sudan, Ethiopia and Eritrea and Somalia.
Conflict patterns on the continent, particularly when it comes to terrorism, have changed rapidly in recent years. This means that the AU has to respond to a highly complex and dynamic environment to achieve peace. And a rich variety of institutional partnerships, locally and globally, are needed to manage conflicts and bring about peace.
Several items discussed at the summit give an indication of the key unresolved issues.
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African Politics by Theo Neethling
from two major governance problems on the continent.
Several home-grown insurgencies in African states underscore
the disconnect between military mandates and related
capacities on the one hand, and actual security threats on
the other. Another major problem is that there is a lack of continental consensus among African leaders and,
at the level of the AU, on the modalities for regulating
foreign security and military activities.
the South African Parliament effectively held the executive to account regarding developments around defence.
Objectives: The article aims to gather evidence on the use of oversight tools by the South African Parliament over a 20-year period, within the post-1994 democratic dispensation, in order to determine the broader trajectory of parliamentary defence oversight.
Method: To determine the trajectory of oversight, this article gathered evidence on the use of internationally recognised parliamentary oversight tools by South Africa’s two parliamentary defence committees from 1994 to 2014. The period allows for a 20-year review of oversight of
defence, inclusive of four full parliamentary terms. Evidence was collected on parliamentary debates, questions, special inquiries, oversight visits and the use of external audits as oversight tools.
Results: The article found that tools were used with varying degrees of success. Results for research on each oversight tool is discussed.
Conclusion: Based on evidence on the use of oversight tools, this article concludes that over a 20-year period there was a declining trajectory in parliamentary oversight of the defence portfolio. The proven applicability of the criteria utilised in this article can serve to inform evaluations of the effectiveness of parliamentary oversight, specifically at committee level.
Conflict patterns on the continent, particularly when it comes to terrorism, have changed rapidly in recent years. This means that the AU has to respond to a highly complex and dynamic environment to achieve peace. And a rich variety of institutional partnerships, locally and globally, are needed to manage conflicts and bring about peace.
Several items discussed at the summit give an indication of the key unresolved issues.
from two major governance problems on the continent.
Several home-grown insurgencies in African states underscore
the disconnect between military mandates and related
capacities on the one hand, and actual security threats on
the other. Another major problem is that there is a lack of continental consensus among African leaders and,
at the level of the AU, on the modalities for regulating
foreign security and military activities.
the South African Parliament effectively held the executive to account regarding developments around defence.
Objectives: The article aims to gather evidence on the use of oversight tools by the South African Parliament over a 20-year period, within the post-1994 democratic dispensation, in order to determine the broader trajectory of parliamentary defence oversight.
Method: To determine the trajectory of oversight, this article gathered evidence on the use of internationally recognised parliamentary oversight tools by South Africa’s two parliamentary defence committees from 1994 to 2014. The period allows for a 20-year review of oversight of
defence, inclusive of four full parliamentary terms. Evidence was collected on parliamentary debates, questions, special inquiries, oversight visits and the use of external audits as oversight tools.
Results: The article found that tools were used with varying degrees of success. Results for research on each oversight tool is discussed.
Conclusion: Based on evidence on the use of oversight tools, this article concludes that over a 20-year period there was a declining trajectory in parliamentary oversight of the defence portfolio. The proven applicability of the criteria utilised in this article can serve to inform evaluations of the effectiveness of parliamentary oversight, specifically at committee level.
Conflict patterns on the continent, particularly when it comes to terrorism, have changed rapidly in recent years. This means that the AU has to respond to a highly complex and dynamic environment to achieve peace. And a rich variety of institutional partnerships, locally and globally, are needed to manage conflicts and bring about peace.
Several items discussed at the summit give an indication of the key unresolved issues.
South African Politics: An Introduction 2e provides an overview of political and socio-economic developments in South Africa, spanning from apartheid and the liberation history, the negotiated transition to the process of democratisation, to the recent state capture and the 2019 national elections. Written by respected country-expert academics using accessible language, the book focuses on political institutions, socio-economic contexts, and political culture, all within the framework of democratic development.
Before these matters are explored, a cursory background section introduces the reader to South African post-apartheid regional security context and the role and function of the SAAF in this regard.
political-economic challenges in South Africa that are effectively constraining the SAN in the execution of its current tasks and strategic
responsibilities. Before these matters are explored, a background section introduces the reader to South Africa’s post-apartheid maritime context and the role and functions of the SAN in this regard.