RU2570009C1 - Warning of danger in near-earth space and on earth and acs to this end - Google Patents

Abstract

FIELD: aircraft engineering.

SUBSTANCE: space is monitored to reveal and analyse the dangerous space object. Probability, location and tome of collision of the space object with the Earth and existing spaceships. Preliminary info with allowance for the minimum average risk criterion is transmitted in online mode to space system control centres, complexes and governments of the states to inform on originating danger. Claimed warning ACS comprises the main IAC. The Earth fragment comprises hardware-software, info, linguistic means, systems for reception, storage, transmission, processing, analysis and prediction of dangerous situations. Besides, it includes the radar, optical dangerous situation measurement, control and monitoring means. Also, it includes the components that follow, i.e. segment for monitoring of risks in low-orbit area of the near-Earth space, segment for computation of solar and geomagnetic activity parameters, segment for analysis of non-coordinate data on space objects, segment of monitoring the asteroid-comet danger, computation complexes, servers of data bases, computer-aided workstations, subsystems, data bases on spaceship launching, archives on spaceships and other observed space objects of the register of operated spaceships and groups, on the history on the events in near-Earth space, in the catalogue of dangerous space objects, on man-made fouling of said near-Earth space, on trajectory measurements and orbital info on spaceships and space objects. Also, used are the results of space object orbit determination by the data of measurements, the results of space object fall time and location prediction, the results of prediction of the approach between uncontrolled space objects and controlled space objects with the help of heliogeophysical parameters of atmosphere. The parameters of constants are defined by means of space garbage unobserved fraction simulation models, reference-legal documents on limits of the volumes of space garbage, natural origin objects with orbits dangerous for the Earth and space objects.

EFFECT: decreased possible damages.

11 cl, 1 dwg

Description

The invention relates to the field of automated information support for the leadership and government bodies of the Russian Federation, and, if necessary, other countries of the world, for solving the tasks of long-term, medium-term, short-term and operational monitoring and forecasting of various threats and dangerous situations in near-Earth outer space and on Earth emanating from space objects of technogenic origin, the so-called space debris, and from objects of natural origin, representing Oh asteroid-comet hazard (AKO).

A number of foreign warning systems are known for hazardous situations of various nature in near-Earth outer space and on Earth. They should be distinguished hydrometeorological systems that are usually deployed in low circumpolar geosynchronous (about ten meteorological satellites belonging to the USA (NOAA-K, DMSP5D-3), ESA (Metop-A), China (FY-1D , FY-3) and Russia (Meteor-M), and in the geostationary orbit where spacecraft (SC) created by the USA (GOES), the Euro Union (Meteosat, MGS), Japan (MTSAT-1R), India (Metsat) are located -1, Insat-3A), China (FY-2C, D, E) and Russia (Electro-L in 2010), orbits, providing meteorological monitoring and forecast opa clear weather phenomena.

The Earth’s remote sensing spacecraft (RS) are represented mainly by a very wide range of spacecraft: American (Landsat-7, ЕО-1, Ikonos-2, Quick Bird-2, Orb View-3, Geo Eye-1, World View- 2, World View-3, USA-200); Indian (IRS, Cartosat-2A, Risat, IMS-1); Israeli (EROS-B, EROS-C, TECSAR); French (Spot-5 and Jason-2); Japanese (Adeos-1, Adeos-2, Alos); Canadian (Radarsat-1 and Radarsat-2); Chinese (HJ-1A, -IB, Yaogan-5); Italian (Cosmo-Skymed, Cosmo-3); European (ERS-2, Envisat-1); small and microKA of Germany (TerraSar-X, Sar-Lupe, RapidEye); Russian KA (Resource DK). Countries such as Algeria, Brazil, Nigeria, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, South Korea and several other countries also have their own space observation satellites, created in cooperation with leading space powers.

An analysis of this type of project shows that, firstly, the information from these systems can only partially be used to solve the problems of monitoring the geophysical processes occurring in the lithosphere, which makes it possible to record only certain heliophysical anomalies in the atmosphere and ionosphere as precursors of large earthquakes. Secondly, they are all focused primarily on identifying the devastating effects of natural disasters and emergencies. So, the final result of the US-sponsored Earth Observation Group (GEO) based on the 10-year Plan (2005-2015) of the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) international project should be a global public infrastructure , which on a time scale close to real, should provide a wide range of users with a comprehensive, processed information of space monitoring. At the same time, GEOSS intends to integrate a variety of ground-based sensor equipment, weather stations, weather balloons, sonars and radars, a grouping of sixty spacecraft (SC), including the NAVSTAR navigation group, a powerful modeling complex for simulation and forecasting, as well as early warning tools for the population exposed dangers of countries and regions. However, although within the framework of GEOSS it became possible to combine heterogeneous monitoring tools and software for measuring physical, chemical and biological parameters characterizing the integrated picture of potentially dangerous processes occurring on Earth, this project does not use spacecraft orbital constellations, which significantly limits the possibilities for solving GEOSS declared tasks of monitoring and forecasting natural and man-made hazards.

The International Disaster Monitoring Constellation (DMC) system has a low-orbit grouping in polar orbits of seven British-developed microsatellites weighing 80-130 kg, equipped with a multispectral optical-electronic complex of medium resolution 20-30 m. The capabilities of such a system are very limited - it It is capable of recording only a completed seismic or major man-made event, is focused on obtaining information only in the visible range of the spectrum and is intended for opera providing information to competent organizations and specialists only of those countries on whose territory an emergency occurs.

The European initiative “Global Monitoring for Environment and Security” (GMES) aims to build its own European monitoring potential. The project involves France, Italy, Germany, Canada, Israel and a number of specialized aerospace companies from other countries. Within the framework of GMES, where the Earth’s space-based remote sensing (ERS), navigation and communications space systems, ground stations and analytical centers are functionally included, it is planned to create a global planetary environmental monitoring system. The GMES orbital group includes 13 observation satellites, including satellites: Gelios-2, Pleiades, Cosmo-Skymed, SAR-Lupe, Spot-5, RapidEye, DMC2 (Topsat 2) and TerraSAR-X. Taking into account the fact that in 2008 ESA began to deploy the Galileo global navigation space system, it has its own space systems of hydrometeorology (9 KA), communication and relay (16 KA), more than 70 spacecraft will be able to function as part of the GMES group in certain periods. In the future, ESA plans to create a whole family of satellites (among them - Sentinel, ERS, ENVISAT, GOCE, SMOS, CryoSat-2, Swarm, ADM-Aeolus, Earth CARE, MSG, MetOp, JASON-2, PLEIADES), which are supposed to be equipped C-band radars (for interferometric imaging), medium-resolution optical cameras (for mapping and hyperspectral imaging), optical equipment and radar altimeter (for detailed monitoring of oceanic waters, Earth’s atmosphere). Although the GMES project has its own orbital constellation, it does not provide for solving the problems of identifying precursors and predicting natural and man-made disasters, including it does not provide constant monitoring and predicting the occurrence of threats from both technological objects and AKO facilities.

Initiated in 2000 by ESA and the French Space Agency, the International Charter “Space and Major Disasters” (International Charter “Spaceand Major Disasters”), which was implemented by space agencies and organizations of Argentina, India, Canada, the USA, Japan and Russia (Russian application for accession to the Charter was filed in January 2010), aimed at creating a unified space data system designed to provide the necessary information to those affected by natural or man-made disasters. Although the project’s orbital segment includes national remote sensing spacecraft of the participating states: ERS, ENVISAT (ESA), SPOT (France), RADARSAT (Canada), IRS (India), GOES (USA), SAC-C (Argentina), ALOS (Japan), due to its specific target orientation (the coordinated use of space technology in the event of natural or man-made disasters and the provision of free space monitoring data to affected countries), the charter does not solve a wide range of forecasting natural disasters occurring on the planet s.

For example, the SentinelAsia project proposed in 2004 provides for the creation in the Asia-Pacific region (APR) of a system for monitoring and eliminating the consequences of natural disasters based on the use of remote sensing space technology in near real time in combination with GIS -mapping technologies and modern information technologies of the global Internet. The architecture of the project is developed taking into account the possibility of receiving and processing the type and text information voluntarily provided by the APR countries from remote sensing satellite systems, including geostationary platforms. However, due to the limited composition of the onboard equipment used in the spacecraft project and the specifics of the orbital grouping, solving the problems of forecasting natural and technogenic phenomena on a global scale in the framework of the project is practically not possible.

Concluding the analysis of the status and development prospects of foreign space systems and emergency monitoring tools, it is worth noting that the above systems cannot continuously monitor the anthropogenic situation in near-Earth space (OKP) of dangerous space debris objects, as well as the lack of comprehensive monitoring and criteria for assessing the degrees of threats to prevent dangerous situations in space and on Earth, taking into account the categories of objects of danger, namely, those emanating from space objects in technogenic origin - spacecraft and fragments of space debris, as well as from objects of natural origin - asteroids, comets and other objects that are AKO.

A number of domestic warning systems about dangerous situations of various nature in near-Earth space and on Earth are known. These include, first and foremost, the “Unified State System for the Prevention and Response of Emergencies” (RSHS) - a teaching aid, Transdniestrian State University named after T.G. Shevchenko, Tiraspol, 2010 - [D1], “International Aerospace Automated System for Monitoring Global Geophysical Phenomena and Prediction of Natural and Technological Disasters (MACASM), patent 2349513 - [D2],“ International Aerospace Global Monitoring System (MAXM), patent 2465729 - [ D3].

The technical solution to the creation of the RSES system is based on the organizational and technical approach, which consists in ensuring and performing the following functional and logical steps [D1, p. 50]: establishing acceptable risk levels, building safety regulation mechanisms, environmental monitoring, risk analysis for the life of the population and forecasting emergencies, making decisions on the appropriateness of taking protective measures, the rational distribution of funds for preventive measures to reduce risk as well as measures to reduce the scale of emergencies, the implementation of preventive measures to reduce the risk of emergencies and reduce their consequences. Although this approach is aimed mainly at improving the organizational structure of the system, it does not provide quick and short-term monitoring and forecasting of various types of threats and dangerous situations both in near-Earth space and on Earth, and it does not have full monitoring in the conditions of simultaneous occurrence of several types of threats and does not contain assessments of the degree of threats (criteria), on the basis of which decisions are made to implement preventive measures or to reduce damage in case of liquidation ation of consequences of disasters and accidents.

As another analogue of the invention, the technical solution described in [D2] is selected. The system contains space and ground segments. The space segment consists of three orbital groups. In the orbital constellation of small spacecraft (MCA) located in a geostationary orbit, MCA, combined in two orbital groups of three satellites at the vertices of two triangular planes, form a constellation of six vertices. For an orbital constellation of 3-4 MCAs in solar-synchronous orbits with a height of 600-700 km, a uniform arrangement of the orbit planes along the longitude of the ascending node is provided. In an orbital constellation of 50 microsatellites (MCCA), the latter are located mainly in solar-synchronous orbits and partly in geostationary orbits. High-sensitive equipment with a set of measuring instruments for earthquake precursors and sensors for operational monitoring and prediction of natural and man-made disasters is installed on the ICA and ICCA.

The main disadvantages of this analogue include the impossibility of identifying, predicting and issuing warnings about dangerous proximity of manned and automatic comic vehicles (spacecraft) with space debris objects, making recommendations for spacecraft evasion maneuvers, predicting uncontrolled objects entering the atmosphere and places of impact on the Earth’s surface space risk, as well as the lack of comprehensive monitoring and criteria for assessing threats to warn of dangerous situations in OKP and on Earth, taking into account one temporary occurrence of danger from objects of different categories.

The closest technical solution to the claimed invention is the patent [D3], because it has many parameters with a similar purpose and some similar main features as claimed.

In the prototype, the technical result is achieved by the fact that, to obtain the necessary monitoring information, this organizational and technical system integrates, along with the specially created own specialized space segment consisting of space telescopes, a grouping of small spacecraft (MCA) and microsatellites with on-board detection equipment early signs of natural disasters of a destructive nature, the resources of both existing and prospective national and international aviation and ground-based means, including contact and remote sensors, space-based remote sensing systems, communications and relaying, meteorological and navigation support, together with the corresponding ground-based infrastructure for launching, managing and maintaining the spacecraft, means for receiving, processing and disseminating monitoring information, it is indicated that satellite communications (VSAT) and terrestrial interactive data transmission networks (Internet) are used, made with the ability to predict natural and man-made kata trophy

The common main disadvantages of both analogues and this prototype include the impossibility of constant monitoring of the technogenic environment of the spacecraft by them in terms of identifying, predicting and issuing warnings about dangerous proximity of manned and automatic spacecraft with space debris, and making recommendations for spacecraft evasion maneuvers, predicting entry into the atmosphere and places of uncontrolled space risk objects falling onto the Earth’s surface, fulfilling international obligations Russian Federation on problems associated with threats from space objects of different categories, as well as the lack of monitoring and criteria for evaluating threats in terms of warning about dangerous situations in OKP and on Earth, taking into account the categories of danger objects, namely, those emanating from space objects of anthropogenic origin - space vehicles and fragments of space debris, as well as from objects of natural origin - asteroids, comets and other objects that constitute an asteroid-comet hazard. In addition to this, the satellite communications (VSAT) and terrestrial interactive data transmission networks (Internet) proposed in the prototype are always used as standard and for their intended purpose, they do not have and are not expected to introduce specific built-in technologies for predicting natural and man-made disasters due to the lack of appropriate algorithms, equipment, software processes, procedures and means of maintaining databases, which relates essentially to specific tasks and means of forecasting systems rations.

The technical result of the proposed invention lies in the fact that it manifests the integrity and emergence of a systematic approach, and also achieves the completeness of measures for monitoring outer space through the use of a structured approach, specially designed and applied to reduce the risk of the criterion of minimum average risk, the totality inherent in this method of action in the form of forecasting algorithms and the use of appropriate software processes, procedures developed for this, from which software systems and databases are formed as the main components of the automated system that implements this method, which provides the collection, processing, storage and transmission of target monitoring information and the development of recommendations for making decisions on the prevention and reduction of possible damage in the event of dangerous situations in outer space and on Earth from objects of technogenic and natural origin.

среднего риска:The essence of the invention lies in the fact that, in contrast to the known technical solution, in the configuration of the ground fragment structurally-functional elements are allocated organizationally and functionally as part of the main information and analytical center, the segment for monitoring dangerous situations in the field of geostationary, highly elliptical and medium-high orbits, the monitoring segment dangerous situations in the low-orbit region of near-Earth space, a segment for calculating the parameters of the solar and geomagnetic active spans, analysis segment of non-coordinate information about space objects and the monitoring segment of asteroid-comet hazard, while using the means of the main information-analytical center using the appropriate software processes and procedures, they collect, process, analyze, systematize, catalog and store information about dangerous and threatening space objects received from space and ground-based monitoring systems and from other available sources, maintain databases of orbital and reference data from of space vehicles, potentially hazardous man-made space objects, predict dangerous approaches and evaluate the probability of collision of potentially dangerous space objects with escorted spacecraft, perform ballistic accompaniment of predicted dangerous proximity of potentially dangerous space objects with escorted spacecraft, reveal the facts of descent from risk orbit space objects, including ballistic tracking, time prediction areas of impact on Earth, systematize, predict and determine the flight paths of hazardous objects, and also evaluate the probabilities, time and place of collisions of potentially dangerous objects of natural origin with active spacecraft and the Earth, using the criterion of minimum average risk and taking into account preliminary information from segments about potentially dangerous space objects and predicted dangerous situations generate warnings about dangerous situations, promptly bring to ntrov management of space systems and complexes and, if necessary - to the leadership and government of the Russian Federation and other countries, information on the facts of threats and forecast of development of dangerous situations in the near-Earth space and on the Earth; the criterion of minimum average risk is used, according to which, when identifying advantages by comparing several potential decision-making options, an expression is used to estimate the cost $$\overline{s}$$

medium risk:

where: s ₁₀ - the cost of false alarm, that is, the cost of maneuvering;

P (A ₀ ) is the probability of the absence of a collision;

F - conditional probability of false alarm;

- весовой множитель; $$l_0=\frac{s_{01}P(A_{\mathrm{one}})}{s_{10}P(A_0)}$$

- weighting factor;

s ₀₁ is the cost of missing the collision, that is, the cost of damage;

P (A ₁ ) is the probability of a collision;

- условная вероятность пропуска столкновения, $$\overline{D}$$

- conditional probability of missing a collision,

среднего риска достигают устремлением к максимуму выражения $$$$

$$\overline{F}-l_0^{}\overline{D}=\max$$

, в связи с чем заменяют последнее на интеграл:according to which the option of warning about dangerous situations is chosen as optimal, for which the least likelihood of false alarm is among the compared options, taking into account the fact that the conditional probability of skipping a collision for the remaining options is not greater than the optimal one, while taking into account that the minimum cost $$\overline{s}$$

medium risk is achieved by striving for maximum expression $$$$

$$\overline{F}-l_0^{}\overline{D}=\max$$

, and therefore replace the latter with an integral:

- условная вероятность отсутствия столкновения;Where: $$\overline{F}$$

- conditional probability of no collision;

- весовой множитель; $$l_0=\frac{s_{01}P(A_{\mathrm{one}})}{s_{10}P(A_0)}$$

- weighting factor;

- условная вероятность пропуска столкновения; $$\overline{D}$$

- conditional probability of missing a collision;

p _KA (y) is the probability density of the position of the spacecraft in space;

- отношение правдоподобия, характеризует, какую из гипотез о выполнении указанных взаимоисключающих условий следует считать более правдоподобной; $$l(y)=\frac{p_{KO}(y)}{p_{KA}(y)}$$

- the likelihood ratio characterizes which of the hypotheses on the fulfillment of these mutually exclusive conditions should be considered more plausible;

p _KO (y) is the probability density of the position of dangerous space objects in space,

get the largest value of the integrand by choosing the decisive function A * (y), which can take only two values: 0 or 1, so that the integrand either vanishes or is multiplied by unity, for which they assume:

-A * (y) = 1 if the integrand is positive;

-A * (y) = 0 otherwise,

,то есть если отношение правдоподобия превышает пороговую величину l₀, то принимают решение об отсутствии опасной ситуации, если отношение правдоподобия меньше пороговой величины l₀, то принимают решение о наличии опасной ситуации; на средствах сегмента мониторинга опасных ситуаций в области геостационарных, высокоэллиптических и средневысоких орбит с помощью соответствующих программных процессов и процедур собирают, обрабатывают, анализируют, систематизируют, каталогизируют и хранят мониторинговую информацию о космических объектах в области ответственности сегмента, получаемую от космических и наземных средств наблюдения, осуществляют ведение базы данных о космических объектах и опасных событиях в области ответственности сегмента, регулярно обновляют и передают в главный информационно-аналитический центр информацию об уточненных параметрах орбит космических объектов, прогнозируют и передают в главный информационно-аналитический центр данные об опасных сближениях сопровождаемых космических аппаратов, а также с конкретными потенциально опасными космическими объектами, формируют и передают в главный информационно-аналитический центр информацию о выявленных фактах разрушений космических объектов в области ответственности сегмента; на средствах сегмента мониторинга опасных ситуаций в низкоорбитальной области околоземного космического пространства с помощью соответствующих программных процедур осуществляют ведение каталога космических объектов в указанной области по информации от Центра контроля космического пространства, регулярно обновляют и передают в главный информационно-аналитический центр информацию об уточненных параметрах орбит для конкретных космических объектов в низкоорбитальной области, прогнозируют и передают в главный информационно-аналитический центр данные об опасных сближениях сопровождаемых космических аппаратов с потенциально опасными космическими объектами, сопровождают сходы с орбит космических объектов риска, последних ступеней ракет-носителей, в том числе разгонных блоков, космические аппараты «Союз» и «Прогресс» и других объектов, формируют и передают в главный информационно-аналитический центр с заданной периодичностью сообщения о временах прекращения существования падающих космических объектов риска, формируют и передают в главный информационно-аналитический центр информацию о выявленных фактах разрушений космических объектов в области низких орбит околоземного космического пространства; на средствах сегмента по расчету параметров солнечной и геомагнитной активности с помощью соответствующих программных процессов и процедур подготавливают и выдают в главный информационно-аналитический центр результаты краткосрочного и среднесрочного прогнозирования индексов солнечной и геомагнитной активности; что на средствах сегмента анализа некоординатной информации о космических объектах с помощью соответствующих программных процессов и процедур принимают, анализируют и обрабатывают некоординатную информацию от средств мониторинга околоземного космического пространства, осуществляют ведение базы данных некоординатной информации по сопровождаемым космическими аппаратами, контролируют состояния сопровождаемых космических аппаратов в нештатных и аварийных ситуациях, передают в главный информационно-аналитический центр результаты контроля состояния сопровождаемых космических аппаратов; на средствах сегмента мониторинга астероидно-кометной опасности с помощью соответствующих программных процессов и процедур собирают, обрабатывают, анализируют, систематизируют, каталогизируют и хранят информацию о потенциально опасных астероидах и кометах, получаемую и пополняемую из баз данных, например, Центра малых планет, основных обсерваторий мира, Российской и Международной виртуальных обсерваторий, осуществляют ведение баз данных об опасных астероидно-кометных телах и опасных событиях в зоне ответственности сегмента, регулярно обновляют и передают в главный информационно-аналитический центр информацию об уточненных параметрах орбит этих объектов, прогнозируют и передают в главный информационно-аналитический центр данные об опасных сближениях объектов астероидно-кометной опасности с сопровождаемыми космическими аппаратами и с Землей; при реализации способа средствами автоматизированной системы предупреждения об опасных ситуациях в околоземном космическом пространстве и на Земле ее аппаратно-программные, информационные и лингвистические средства в таких выделенных функционально-структурных элементах конфигурации системы, как главный информационно-аналитический центр, сегмент мониторинга опасных ситуаций в области геостационарных, высокоэллиптических и средневысоких орбит, сегмент мониторинга опасных ситуаций в низкоорбитальной области околоземного космического пространства, сегмент по расчету параметров солнечной и геомагнитной активности, сегмент анализа некоординатной информации о космических объектах и сегмент мониторинга астероидно-кометной опасности, объединяют в рамках каждого структурного элемента в локальную вычислительную сеть, при этом в главном информационно-аналитическом центре и во всех сегментах системы устанавливают вычислительные комплексы, серверы баз данных, автоматизированные рабочие места на базе компьютеров, а также разворачивают подсистемы, например, коммуникационную, решения целевых задач, формирования, отображения и передачи выходной информации, сбора и хранения информации, причем локальные вычислительные сети объединяют средствами инфокоммуникаций в территориально-распределенную сеть; при этом в состав средств главного информационно-аналитического центра и выделенных сегментов включают аппаратно-программные, информационные и лингвистические средства, а также необходимые программные комплексы, программные процессы и процедуры, обеспечивающие выполнение операций приема, хранения, передачи, обработки, анализа, прогнозирования опасных ситуаций, в том числе реализацию алгоритма вычисления средних значений точности определения положений космических объектов риска за определенное время до столкновений с ними на основе критерия минимума среднего риска, при этом локальную сеть сегмента мониторинга астероидно-кометной опасности связывают по Интернету с базами данных, например, Центра малых планет при Международном астрономическом союзе (Кембридж, Массачусетс), основных обсерваторий мира, с Российской и Международной виртуальными обсерваториями; в состав подсистемы сбора и хранения информации включают основные информационные средства, именуемые базами данных - БД, необходимые для обеспечения полноты и постоянного мониторинга и функционирования системы и ее структурных элементов в соответствии с выполняемыми ими задачами, например:and make a decision based on the criterion $$A*(y)=\{\begin{array}{c}\mathrm{one,}e\mathrm{from}l\mathrm{and}l(y)>l_0\\ 0e\mathrm{from}l\mathrm{and}l(y)<l_0\end{array}$$

that is, if the likelihood ratio exceeds a threshold value l ₀ , then a decision is made that there is no dangerous situation, if the likelihood ratio is less than a threshold value l ₀ , then a decision is made about a dangerous situation; Using the means of the segment for monitoring hazardous situations in the field of geostationary, high elliptical and medium-high orbits, using the appropriate software processes and procedures, they collect, process, analyze, systematize, catalog and store monitoring information about space objects in the area of segment responsibility received from space and ground-based observation devices, maintain a database of space objects and hazardous events in the area of segment responsibility, regularly update and not transmit information about the refined parameters of the orbits of space objects to the main information and analytical center, forecast and transmit to the main information and analytical center data on dangerous proximity of escorted spacecraft, as well as with specific potentially dangerous space objects, form and transmit it to the main information and analytical center information on revealed facts of the destruction of space objects in the area of segment responsibility; Using the means of the segment for monitoring dangerous situations in the low-orbit region of near-Earth space using appropriate software procedures, maintain a catalog of space objects in the specified area according to information from the Space Control Center, regularly update and transmit to the main information-analytical center information on the updated orbit parameters for specific space objects in the low-orbit region, are predicted and transmitted to the main information analyte The data center on the dangerous proximity of escorted spacecraft with potentially dangerous space objects accompanies the descent from the orbits of space risk objects, the last stages of launch vehicles, including booster blocks, Soyuz and Progress spacecraft and other objects, form and transmit to the main information and analytical center with a given periodicity the messages about the times when the falling space objects of risk cease to exist, form and transmit to the main information and analyte cal center of information about the facts of destruction of space objects in low orbits of near-Earth space; using the means of the segment for calculating the parameters of solar and geomagnetic activity, using the appropriate software processes and procedures, prepare and give to the main information and analytical center the results of short-term and medium-term forecasting of the indices of solar and geomagnetic activity; that using the means of the analysis segment of non-coordinate information about space objects using appropriate software processes and procedures, they receive, analyze and process non-coordinate information from near-Earth space monitoring tools, maintain a database of non-coordinate information on escorted spacecraft, and monitor the status of escorted spacecraft in abnormal and emergency situations, transmit the results to the main information and analytical center monitoring the status of escorted spacecraft; Using the means of the asteroid-comet hazard monitoring segment, using the appropriate software processes and procedures, they collect, process, analyze, systematize, catalog and store information on potentially dangerous asteroids and comets, obtained and updated from databases, for example, the Center of Minor Planets, the main observatories of the world , Russian and International virtual observatories, maintain databases of dangerous asteroid-comet bodies and dangerous events in the area of responsibility of the segment but updated and sent to the chief of information-analytical center of information on the adjusted parameters of the orbits of these objects, predict and sent to the Chief Information and Analytical Center of data on dangerous close encounters objects asteroid-comet hazard accompanied by a spacecraft and the Earth; when implementing the method by means of an automated warning system about dangerous situations in near-Earth outer space and on Earth, its hardware-software, information and linguistic means in such allocated functional and structural elements of the system configuration as the main information-analytical center, segment for monitoring dangerous situations in the field of geostationary , highly elliptical and medium-high orbits, segment for monitoring dangerous situations in the low-orbit region of near-Earth space space, the segment for calculating the parameters of solar and geomagnetic activity, the segment for analyzing non-coordinate information about space objects and the segment for monitoring asteroid-comet hazard are combined within each structural element into a local computer network, while in the main information-analytical center and in all segments systems install computer systems, database servers, computer-based workstations, and also deploy subsystems, for example, a communicator communication, solving target tasks, forming, displaying and transmitting output information, collecting and storing information, and local computer networks are combined by means of info-communications in a geographically distributed network; at the same time, the main information and analytical center and allocated segments include hardware-software, information and linguistic tools, as well as the necessary software systems, software processes and procedures that ensure the execution of reception, storage, transmission, processing, analysis, and forecasting of dangerous situations , including the implementation of the algorithm for calculating the average accuracy values for determining the positions of space risk objects for a certain time before collisions with them on the basis of average minimum risk criterion at the same LAN segment for monitoring the NEO hazard is associated with the Internet database, for example, the Minor Planet Center of the International Astronomical Union (Cambridge, MA), the major observatories in the world, with the Russian and the International Virtual Observatory; the structure of the subsystem for collecting and storing information includes basic information tools called databases - databases, necessary to ensure the completeness and constant monitoring and functioning of the system and its structural elements in accordance with the tasks they perform, for example:

- DB for spacecraft launches;

- DB (data archive) on spacecraft and other observable space objects of technogenic origin with their main characteristics;

- DB (register) of functioning spacecraft and orbital constellations;

- DB on events that occurred in near-Earth space as a result of space activities (explosions, dangerous proximity, planned maneuvers and dockings and their results, descent from orbit, etc.);

- DB (catalog) of space risk objects located at the stage of completion of orbital flight;

- DB (catalog) for dangerous space objects approaching the ISS and other escorted spacecraft;

- DB on technogenic pollution of near-Earth space and measures to counteract the accumulation of space debris;

- DB on trajectory measurements and orbital data of spacecraft and space objects coming from different sources of information;

- DB with the results of determining the orbits of space objects from the measurement data,

- DB with the results of forecasts of the time and place of the fall of space objects descending (descending) from orbit;

- DB with the results of forecasts of dangerous proximity of uncontrolled space objects with escorted spacecraft;

- DB on heliogeophysical parameters of the atmosphere;

- A database with the parameters of the used geodynamic models, astronomical, geodetic and other constants and data used in solving ballistic-navigation problems of flight of space objects;

- DB on models of unobserved fraction of space debris;

- DB regulatory documents on the limitation of space debris;

- DB (updated catalog) of objects of natural origin (asteroids, comets and other objects), whose orbits dangerously cross the Earth’s orbit and the orbits of the accompanied spacecraft; the main information and analytical center and the allocated segments are equipped with compatible versions of operating systems and hardware and software platforms, as a rule, of one developer (manufacturer), on which information and computer systems, target information processing servers, database servers for operation are built and networked with relevant databases and workstations.

The claimed method of warning about dangerous situations in near-Earth outer space and on Earth and the automated system for its implementation is illustrated by figure 1. Figure 1 shows the structural and functional elements of an automated warning system about dangerous situations in near-Earth outer space and on Earth, and in figure 1 and the following notation is used in the text:

1 - the main information and analytical center (GIAC);

2 - segment for monitoring hazardous situations in the field of geostationary, elliptical and medium-high orbits;

3 - segment for monitoring hazardous situations in the low-orbit region of near-Earth space;

4 - a segment for calculating the parameters of solar and geomagnetic activity;

5 - segment analysis of non-coordinate information about space objects;

6 - segment monitoring asteroid-comet hazard;

7 - software systems, processes and procedures;

8 - database;

9 - Internet;

10 - databases of the Center for Minor Planets, the main observatories of the world, the Russian and International virtual observatories, and others.

The functioning of the automated warning system about dangerous situations in near-Earth outer space and on Earth (ASPOS OKP) will be considered using an example of a generalized analysis of its use in solving problems of warning about dangerous situations. The main functions assigned to the automated system are the timely identification of dangerous proximity and the occurrence and forecast of the development of dangerous situations in the OKP and on Earth, followed by operational informing the operational duty informant of the operational organization service, Mission Control Centers (operators) of space systems (complexes), the main operational ISS management groups, including the management of FSUE TsNIImash, the Central Information Point of Roscosmos, etc.

The main tasks solved by the means of ASPOS OKP are the following.

1. Collection (from various available sources 8, 10), processing and cataloging of information about space objects of technogenic and natural origin, including information regarding the circumstances of the spacecraft launch.

2. Identification and constant monitoring of the spacecraft and spacecraft flight, which pose a potential danger to the ISS, manned and other functioning spacecraft, development of recommendations for taking measures that exclude or reduce the degree of occurrence of critical situations.

3. Identification of decreasing spacecraft and spacecraft and predicting the time of their ballistic existence in orbit. Identification of especially dangerous from decreasing objects and their careful tracking using all possible domestic and foreign tracking means in order to obtain the most accurate calculation of possible areas of incidence of SC and KO fragments not burnt in the atmosphere.

4. Collection, processing, analysis and provision of information about the state of controlled spacecraft at certain stages of their flight and in the event of some emergency situations.

5. Analysis and assessment of the condition in OKP and on Earth with the aim of identifying and forecasting dangerous and emergency situations.

6. The prompt formation and communication of information on the occurrence of dangerous and emergency situations in the OKP to the leadership of Roskosmos, and, if necessary, to the EMERCOM of Russia, the Russian Foreign Ministry and other interested ministries, departments and organizations in accordance with the agreed protocols for information interaction.

7. Operational interaction and data exchange on the issues of technogenic clogging of OKP and monitoring KO with the RAS and other organizations and departments of the Russian Federation.

8. Operational interaction and data exchange on environmental issues in the OKP and on Earth with space agencies and organizations from foreign countries, including with the IADC and organizations of NASA, ESA, etc.

9. Formation and transmission in an agreed form and in the established manner of data for changing the operating modes of measuring instruments that monitor space objects in the event of dangerous and emergency situations in accordance with accepted agreements and other regulatory documents governing joint work.

10. Analysis of events.

11. Assessment of the level of "contamination" of the OKP on the trajectories of spacecraft launch and flight. Development of recommendations on the selection of launch parameters carried out by Roscosmos.

12. Preparation of data for analysis and assessment of the state of orbital systems of the spacecraft, the “population” of the geostationary orbit and other areas of the OKP, which are of interest to the space activities of Roscosmos.

13. Information support for the participation of the Russian Federation (Roscosmos) in international projects, test campaigns and in the work of international organizations regarding the contamination of OKP with objects of technogenic and natural origin and the safety of space flights.

14. Collection, cataloging, systematization, analysis and preparation of baseline information for research and design work on issues related to man-made and natural clogging of the OKP, including the GSO area, space flight safety and descending from the near-Earth orbit of high-risk spacecraft.

15. Improving the models and methods used in the control of outer space in order to ensure monitoring adequate to the state of scientific knowledge and the development of space technology.

The use of ASPOS OKP is accompanied by the implementation of information and computing work on the means of the system by launching software systems 7 for the collection, processing, analysis, systematization and cataloging of information about KO and the situation in OKP obtained from all available sources 8, 10.

The data collected includes various types of information, including information on the proximity of potentially dangerous spacecraft with the accompanied spacecraft, as well as with the Earth; coordinate information about spacecraft - in the form of primary measurements and in the form of orbit parameters; non-coordinate information about QoS - in the form of the results of photometric, spectral and other measurements; descriptive in textual (formalized or non-formalized, as well as in graphic and other types of presentation).

The data and information collected in each specific segment 2-6 are processed on information-computer complexes and segment servers, initiating for this the execution of software processes and procedures from the corresponding software systems 7.

After processing, analysis and systematization of information, it is recorded in the corresponding database of 8 ASPOS OKP. In general, the ASPOS OKP database complex is a complex of diverse databases from archives containing information about space objects and events in the OKP to a database with measurements of the current navigation parameters of space objects received from various measuring instruments, as well as from databases 8 with the results of solving the target tasks of ASPOS OKP. In particular, the ASPOS OKP DB complex contains information on spacecraft launches, data on space objects located in different areas of the OKP, information about occurred or forecasted events related to spacecraft, as well as orbital data coming from different sources 10, results solution of target tasks on the means of SIAC 1.

To keep the DB 8 of GIAC 1 up to date, containing information on spacecraft launches and information data on various spacecraft, numerous open sources of information 10 are constantly reviewed, including:

- official websites of space agencies;

- official websites of rocket and space technology manufacturers;

- The official website of the Data Center for Missiles and Satellites (World Data Center for Satellite Information);

- quarterly reports, “Orbital Debris, Quarterly News”, available on one of the NASA sites;

- Printed publications: magazines (domestic, for example, “Cosmonautics News”, “Rocket and Space Technology” and foreign), specialized weeklies (Space News), etc.

After collecting all the available information, a thorough analysis is carried out. All newly detected space objects in the OKP are cataloged in DB 8 of GIAC 1. Based on the analysis, a decision is made about what information about the newly cataloged KOs should be entered in DB 8. In the future, the information recorded in DB 8 is supplemented

and is specified as new data on spacecraft launches, on the characteristics of spacecraft, etc.

In DB 8, GIAC 1 also collect information on spacecraft and events in near-Earth space, which allows reconciliation of the GIAC 1 ASPOS OKP catalog and the catalogs of 10 leading foreign space organizations. For weekly catalog reconciliation, the Satellite Situation Report (SSR), formed by the US Air Force Space Command and available for registered users as a file on the site https://www.space-track.org, was chosen as the source of information about KOs. However, due to some ambiguity of information in the SSR, a situation may arise when contradictions arise in the characteristics of accounting for QOs, which can be eliminated only by analyzing information obtained from other sources. For example, a newly cataloged spacecraft is mistakenly assigned the previously used international designation or a cataloged spacecraft is assigned the wrong international designation (most often this refers to the small-sized fraction of space debris, when the analysis of the orbital information archive reveals that the formation of the object is associated with another launch). In addition, not all information about the spacecraft that is stored in the SIAC 1 ASPOS OKP DB is contained in the SSR, data such as the purpose of the spacecraft, its mass and size can be compared with data from the Common Database - a database available to IADC members, on the website https://mas15.esoc.esa.de:8000/.

One of the main sources of information on spacecraft and events in the OKP for GIAC 1 ASPOS OKP is the Center for Outer Space Control (CCCH) of the Russian Federation. To date, regular receipt of messages from the CCCH has been organized, containing both data on the current parameters of the orbit of the spacecraft from the agreed list and information about the spacecraft that are at the stage of descent from the orbit (when, according to the forecast, less than 90 days remain before the termination of their orbital existence) , and on the predicted hazardous proximity of the accompanied spacecraft with the “risk” spacecraft. All information from the CCL comes in the form of agreed standard messages.

So, the measurement data from the NKU trajectory radio monitoring facilities and from satellite navigation equipment for the monitored objects are regularly received in the database of various system complexes. After refinement of the orbits, using the obtained measurement information, data on the updated orbit of the spacecraft can, if necessary, be used in the interests of ASPOS OKP. For example, at the moment, after each refinement of the orbit of the International Space Station (ISS), the updated state vector of this object is automatically recorded in the GIAC 1 ASPOS OKP DB complex.

In order for the GIAC ASPOS OKP DB to contain complete and reliable information on spacecraft and events in near-Earth space, it is necessary to use information from leading foreign space organizations. First of all, this refers to the US Outer Space Monitoring System. At the moment, orbital data (in TLE format), generated on the basis of measurements of the UCCS of the USA and available for registered users on the website http: // www / space-track / org /, is automatically recorded twice a day in the GIAC 1 database complex.

During international test campaigns to support the departure from the orbit of the QO risk for IADC members, a database on falling objects becomes available on the site https://mas15.esoc.esa.de:8000/, in which participants of these test campaigns can record orbital data in the TLE format, and more recently in the form of state vectors or elements of the orbit of the QoS. These orbital data are also processed and recorded in the database GIAC 1 ASPOS OKP.

In the complex of the DB GIAC 1 ASPOS OKP there are a number of archives designed for the accumulation and long-term storage of information. All measurement information received by GIAC 1 ASPOS OKP, after an appropriate analysis, is systematized and gets into these archives.

We show the possibility of carrying out the invention, i.e. the possibility of its industrial application.

By order of the head of the Federal Space Agency dated November 23, 2012 No. 240, the first stage of the automated system for warning about dangerous situations in near-Earth space (ASPOS OKP) was put into trial operation. Thus, in the composition of the ground fragment of ASPOS OKP, hardware and software systems, information systems and tools, components from the composition of the so-called special mathematical support (SMO) are deployed and operate.

To ensure the functioning of the automated system that implements this method, to date, software packages, software systems, processes and procedures for processing targeted monitoring information about dangerous objects of technological and natural origin have been developed, programmed and tested. The structure of this QS as a whole corresponds to the configuration of the automated system, that is, there are corresponding parts of the QS placed both on the means of the main information-analytical center 1 and on the means of all segments 2-6 of the system. At the same time, each of the QS parts is a software implementation of a certain system of techniques and algorithms for processing target monitoring information inherent in this segment.

In general, software systems, processes and procedures have state registration. So, the State Registration Certificate No. 20133612415 dated February 27, 2013 was issued to the “Program complex for visualizing the space environment and dangerous situations in near-Earth space” on 02.27.2013, the State Registration Certificate No. 20133612416 dated from the “Software complex to identify potentially dangerous objects for controlled space vehicles” 02/27/2013. The program for the formation of telegrams with ballistic information to ensure control of the International Space Station has a certificate of state registration of computer programs No. 2014611069 of 01/23/2014. The program for the formation of standard ballistic information for the International Space Station has a certificate of state registration of computer programs No. 20144612289 of 02.24.2014.

The feasibility of the QS of the asteroid-comet hazard monitoring segment can be carried out on the basis of programs of own development, or on the basis of the use of the Earth Impact Effects Program, developed by employees of the University of Arizona (USA), for calculating the consequences of collisions of the Earth with comets and asteroids. Anyone can use the program by going to the site http: /www.lpl.arizona.edu/impacteffects/. The calculation procedure is described in [Collins et al., 2005].

The feasibility of the ground segment for monitoring the asteroid-comet hazard is beyond doubt. So, in the Russian Federation there already exists a network of MASTER robotic telescopes (Sternberg State Astronomical Institute), which is part of the International Gamma-ray Burst Alert System. They are located in Kislovodsk, Kaurovka (near Yekaterinburg), at Irkutsk University, in Blagoveshchensk, near Moscow (Vostryakovo) and in Argentina. It is planned to install a telescope in South Africa and on the island of Tenerife (Canary Islands). These are 40 cm telescopes with a field of view of 2 ° × 2 ° and a penetration of 20m.

The MASTER telescopes spaced in longitude make it possible to conduct almost round-the-clock observation in the Northern Hemisphere in winter over the entire optical wavelength range (from blue to near infrared) in winter. If an unknown object that is not in the star catalog falls into the telescope’s field of view, it is surveyed and, if it is identified as an asteroid, the data is transmitted to the Center of Minor Planets, where the database determines whether this object is known or not. If the object is new, this is reported to all observatories.

For a long time, 10-meter telescopes have been operating in Hawaii, in the Canary Islands, 11-meter in South Africa, and 12-meter in Chile. It should be noted that the most successful place for long-term observation of objects in the Southern Hemisphere is Antarctica with its favorable astroclimate, where there is already an American 10-meter telescope at an altitude of about 4 thousand meters and the Chinese automatic observatory PLATO-A is unfolding at the highest point. It is planned to create next-generation telescopes equipped with segmented mirrors (as their weight increases excessively): the giant 24-meter Magellan telescope (GMT), the 30-meter (TMT) and the Exceptionally Large Telescope (OWL) with A 100-meter mirror and a resolution of 0.001 arc second, which is being designed for the European Southern Observatory in Chile. All of them will begin to work in 2016-2018.

The feasibility of the space segment for monitoring the asteroid-comet hazard is also beyond doubt. Obviously, the requirements for the construction scheme and the search capabilities of the space segment for observing near-Earth space depend to a large extent on the danger of AKO objects and their characteristics, and hence on the required speed of their registration and monitoring, as well as on the technical capabilities of space telescopes and their layout . So, such a system is a possible version of the monitoring system in the "Cone" project, which provides for the placement of at least one spacecraft with a telescope in a heliocentric orbit, which coincides with the earth, 10-15 million km from the Earth. If the observation zone has an angular size of about 60 °, then the area of the celestial sphere to be controlled will decrease by almost an order of magnitude compared with ground-based observations. The spacecraft telescope placement proposed in the Cone project will make it possible to detect asteroids approaching from the side of the Sun, which are generally impossible to observe from the Earth.

Using optoelectronic surveillance tools as part of KA-telescopes, the scanning of the considered zone can be carried out with an interval of several hours, sufficient for prompt notification of danger. Observations in the infrared and ultraviolet ranges will significantly expand the information about the observed objects. To control the "dead zone" arising from exposure to the Earth and the Moon, it will be possible to use ground-based means or space telescopes operating in near-earth orbit. These same tools will help to detect dangerous bodies in meteor showers. Clarification of trajectory and other characteristics is possible by radar means using radio interferometry methods. The basis for the construction of the "Cone" system, as well as other KA-systems, can be created in NPO them. S.A. Lavochkina and spacecraft of the Oko and Arkon type and the astrophysical space observatories Spektr, which have passed field tests (Earth and Universe magazine, 1997, No. 2; 1999, No. 2; 2000, No. 4 - [D13]), as well as spacecraft developed in other organizations and countries.

The feasibility of time synchronization processes can be provided, for example, by patent No. 2240265 “A method for determining the exact time of the appearance of a celestial phenomenon”, - [D14].

The feasibility of the database interoperability property can be implemented, for example, on the basis of the recommendations of the book "Telecommunication Technologies and Networks", the authors I.P. Norenkov, V.A. Trudonoshin, MSTU. N.E. Bauman, Moscow 1999, - [D16], as well as articles by E.V. Frangulova "Classification of approaches to the integration and interoperability of information systems." Bulletin of ASTU, series "Management, Computing and Informatics", 2010. No. 2, - [D17].

The feasibility of computing fragments of the orbits of flights of space objects in several dimensions is confirmed by patents No. 2150414 - [D18], 2027144, - [D19]. Technical means that implement this method are described in the information sources: “Recognition in systems of auto control” / Shibanov GP, M .: Mechanical Engineering, 1973, p. 176-188, - [D20]; “Holographic pattern identification” / G. Vasilenko, M.: Soviet Radio, 1977, Fig. 4.21, p. 282-283, - [D21], as well as a description in the scientific journal of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (US) in Mark Psiaki's publication Autonomous orbit determination for two spacecraft from relative position measurements)) numbered AIAA-98-4560, published on 08/10/1998, - [D22]; his Internet address is: https://arc.aiaa.Org/doi/abs/10.2514/6.1998-4560.

A specially developed criterion - a minimum of average risk - is given in the article "Justification of requirements for hazard warning systems in hazardous situations based on the criterion of minimum average risk", authors: Ph.D. I.I. Oleinikov, P.V. Novikov / J. "Cosmonautics and Rocket Engineering", TsNIImash, No. 4, 2012, pp. 199-206, - [D23], a copy of which is given in the materials of Appendix 1.

The implementation of the processes of computing fragments of the orbits of flights of space monitoring objects by several measurements, as well as the calculation of the consequences of collisions of the Earth with the objects of AKO, are carried out by the corresponding programs for the implementation of a certain system of methods and algorithms for processing the main information-analytical data center and target monitoring information on the computer, the results of which take into account when analyzing and developing recommendations for decision-making in order to prevent and reduce I am of possible damage in the face of dangerous situations in the OKP and on Earth.

Note.

The applicant has placed in Appendices 1 and 2 to the application materials additional information confirming the possibility of carrying out the invention so as not to unnecessarily overload the description of the invention. However, if the examination considers it appropriate, the applicant will not object to the inclusion of the Applications in the description.

Annex 1

Substantiation of requirements for hazard warning systems in OKP based on the criterion of minimum average risk.

I.I. Oleinikov, Ph.D., P.V. Novikov (Central Research Institute of Mechanical Engineering)

An approach is presented for determining and substantiating the optimal characteristics of a hazard warning system to address issues related to identifying, tracking and assessing the risk of possible dangerous encounters in OKP, based on the criterion of minimum average risk.

To date, in near-Earth space (GC) has accumulated (according to various sources) more than 3000 tons of anthropogenic substances. The total number of detected and escorted objects with a diameter of more than 10 cm is approaching 22 thousand. Of these, about 1000 are operating spacecraft from different countries. The number of bodies ranging in size from 1 cm to 10 cm reached 600 thousand.

While the number of probable collisions of two spacecraft is not large, but with each passing year the probability of collisions of uncontrolled space objects with "protected" space objects will increase.

The most difficult task for a hazard warning system is identifying, tracking and assessing the risk of possible proximity of spacecraft to “protected” spacecraft. At the same time, over a period of time, dozens of space objects (with dimensions greater than 1 cm) can threaten the spacecraft’s safety, including unmanaged space objects and functioning spacecraft, as well as tens, hundreds of spacecraft’s proximity to risk objects (each “risk spacecraft” "May approach the spacecraft in several turns in a row). Therefore, it is this task that makes the most stringent requirements for the characteristics of the system.

While ensuring the flight safety of the spacecraft, the main task of the hazard warning system is not to miss any of the possible collisions. When this condition is met, there are two extremes:

- consider that the probability of a collision is negligible and there is no need for active actions to counter a possible collision. In this case, the probability of losing the device remains.

- at each rapprochement of the “protected” spacecraft with the “risk KO”, make a decision that there will be a collision. In this case, at each approach, active actions are taken to prevent a collision, which leads to high costs for carrying out evasion maneuvers and ensuring the fulfillment of target tasks.

(см. рисунок 1).A necessary condition for ensuring the safe passage of “KO-risk” past the “protected” spacecraft is the operational control of the miss vector $$\overline{\rho }={\overline{r}}_{\mathrm{to}\mathrm{about}}-{\overline{r}}_{\mathrm{to}\mathrm{but}}$$

(see figure 1).

Figure 1. Slip Vector

, то, как правило, считается, что столкновения нет. Здесь R_к - пороговое значение расстояния между «КО-риска» и «защищаемым» КА для их безопасного пролета.If $$\rho =\left|\overline{\rho }\right|\ge R_{\mathrm{to}}$$

, then, as a rule, it is considered that there is no collision. Here, R _k is the threshold value of the distance between the “KO-risk” and the “protected” spacecraft for their safe passage.

The choice of R _to is important enough: its underestimation can lead to the omission of a really dangerous approach, and unjustified overstatement can lead to frequent “false alarms” and additional evasion maneuvers to eliminate it, which increases operating costs.

The value of R _k depends on the navigation accuracy of each “protected” spacecraft and “CO-risk”.

Without accurate measurements of the KO trajectory and the ability to reliably predict collisions of 2 KOs, we can only determine the probability of a collision and, if it turned out to be large enough, conduct an evasion maneuver. Moreover, in the overwhelming majority of cases, in fact, there would be no collision, so the measures taken were "as if unnecessary." However, in those exceptional cases when the collision was supposed to be, the SC “withdrawal” allows it to be avoided.

The decision on the presence or absence of a collision can be made under two mutually exclusive conditions [2]:

condition A ₁ - “there is a collision”,

condition A ₀ - “no collision.

Each condition can correspond to one of the solutions:

- «столкновение есть»,decision $${\mathrm{BUT}}_{\mathrm{one}}^{*}$$

- “there is a collision”,

- «столкновения нет.decision $${\mathrm{BUT}}_0^{*}$$

“There is no collision.

возможны четыре ситуации:When calculating the slip vector $$\overline{\rho }={\overline{r}}_{\mathrm{to}\mathrm{about}}-{\overline{r}}_{\mathrm{to}\mathrm{but}}$$

four situations are possible:

- правильное обнаружение столкновения;1) situation $${\mathrm{BUT}}_{\mathrm{one}}^{*}{\mathrm{BUT}}_{\mathrm{one}}$$

- correct collision detection;

- пропуск столкновения;2) situation $${\mathrm{BUT}}_0^{*}{\mathrm{BUT}}_{\mathrm{one}}$$

- pass collision;

- ложная тревога;3) situation $${\mathrm{BUT}}_{\mathrm{one}}^{*}{\mathrm{BUT}}_0$$

- false alarm;

- нет столкновения.4) situation $${\mathrm{BUT}}_0^{*}{\mathrm{BUT}}_0$$

- no collision.

The listed events correspond to four probabilities, the sum of which is equal to one:

Assuming that the probability density of the position of objects in space is distributed according to the normal law with an error σ, the approximation picture in a simplified form can be represented in Figure 2:

The left graph determines the position of the "protected" spacecraft, the position of which, in most cases, is known quite accurately, the right one - "CO-risk".

The probability density function of the spacecraft at a certain point is described by the expression:

The probability density function of finding the CO risk at a certain point is described by the expression:

where ρ is the distance between the expected positions of the “protected” spacecraft and the CO risk.

If there are errors in determining the miss vector ρ, incorrect decisions are possible - Figure 3.

We associate a certain value with each solution, while for error-free solutions we agree to consider this value equal to zero: s _ik (i = 0.1; k = 0.1), where s ₁₁ = s ₀₀ = 0. Then the collision detection system of two COs can be characterized by the average cost (mathematical expectation of cost) of erroneous decisions

The best of the compared warning systems can then be considered a system that meets the criterion of minimum average risk.

и $$Р({А}_1^{*}{А}_1)$$

также вызывает большие трудности. Поэтому перейдем к условным вероятностям, являющимся качественными показателями вектора промаха при условиях наличия и отсутствия столкновения.Due to the fact that setting a priori probabilities of the presence and absence of a collision P (A ₁ ) and P (A ₀ ) in practice is extremely difficult, the determination of the combination probabilities $$R({\mathrm{BUT}}_0^{*}{\mathrm{BUT}}_{\mathrm{one}})$$

and $$R({\mathrm{BUT}}_{\mathrm{one}}^{*}{\mathrm{BUT}}_{\mathrm{one}})$$

also causes great difficulties. Therefore, we turn to conditional probabilities, which are qualitative indicators of the slip vector under the conditions of presence and absence of a collision.

In the presence of a collision, qualitative indicators are the corresponding conditional probabilities of a correct collision detection

and skipping collisions

и $${А}_0^{*}$$

взаимоисключающие, тоSince the solutions corresponding to the same condition A ₁ $${\mathrm{BUT}}_{\mathrm{one}}^{*}$$

and $${\mathrm{BUT}}_0^{*}$$

mutually exclusive then

In the absence of a collision, conditional probabilities of false alarm are qualitative indicators of detection.

and lack of collision

moreover

Using the above relations (5) - (10), expression (4) for the average cost of error can be represented as

, $$\overline{F}$$

), от характеристик опасности состояния ОКП Р(А₁), Р(A₀)) и стоимостных характеристик КА (s₀₁ - стоимость пропуска столкновения, то есть стоимость потери аппарата, s₁₀ - стоимость ложной тревоги, то есть стоимость проведения маневра).When considering the dependence of average risk, it is clear that it depends on the parameters defining as a system of warning about dangerous situations in OKP ( $$\overline{D}$$

, $$\overline{F}$$

), on the hazard characteristics of the OKP state R (A ₁ ), P (A ₀ )) and the cost characteristics of the spacecraft (s ₀₁ is the cost of missing the collision, that is, the cost of losing the apparatus, s ₁₀ is the cost of false alarm, that is, the cost of maneuvering) .

Any logical decision on the presence or absence of a collision can be described by the decisive function A * = A (y), which, depending on the value of γ, takes one of two values: 0 and 1.

и $$\overline{F}$$

можно записать в виде интегралов в бесконечных пределах:Introducing in the general case an arbitrary decisive function, the expressions for $$\overline{D}$$

and $$\overline{F}$$

can be written as integrals in infinite limits:

и $$\overline{F}$$

от порогового значения можно определить с помощью минимизации среднего риска. Перепишем выражение стоимости среднего риска (11), используя $$\overline{D}$$

и $$\overline{F}$$

:Dependence $$\overline{D}$$

and $$\overline{F}$$

from a threshold value can be determined by minimizing the average risk. We rewrite the expression for the average risk value (11) using $$\overline{D}$$

and $$\overline{F}$$

:

In real conditions, it is extremely difficult to construct the average risk cost function, since the collision probabilities that determine the danger of a particular orbit in an OKP are not known. You can only evaluate these values using the OKP model.

If we consider several potential warning systems about dangerous situations in an OKP, we can compare their indicators in the same hazard conditions of an OKP. In this case, knowledge of the parameters of the OKP and the cost characteristics of the spacecraft are not so significant.

We rewrite the expression for the cost of average risk (11) as follows:

Where

In this case, the criterion of optimizing the characteristics of the system for minimizing the average risk is reduced to the so-called weight criterion

. Множитель l₀, называемый весовым множителем, зависит от соотношения стоимости ошибок каждого вида и вероятностей наличия или отсутствия столкновения.This criterion shows that we should strive to increase the "weighted" difference $$\overline{F}-l_0\overline{D}$$

. The factor l ₀ , called the weighting factor, depends on the ratio of the cost of errors of each type and the probabilities of the presence or absence of a collision.

If, with the same weight factor l ₀ , two warning systems are compared, of which the first is optimal, then by (16) we can write

.

.

имеем $${\overline{F}}_{опт}\le \overline{F}$$

или F_опт≤F. Это означает, что оптимальная система предупреждения дает наименьшую вероятность ложной тревоги среди всех систем, у которых условная вероятность пропуска столкновения не больше, чем у оптимальной. Данное условие можно принять в качестве самостоятельного критерия оптимальности (критерий Неймана-Пирсона), который, как и весовой, по существу является следствием общего критерия минимума среднего риска.Then for $$\overline{D}\le {\overline{D}}_{\mathrm{about}Pt}$$

we have $${\overline{F}}_{\mathrm{about}Pt}\le \overline{F}$$

or F _opt ≤F. This means that an optimal warning system gives the least likelihood of a false alarm among all systems for which the conditional probability of missing a collision is not greater than the optimal one. This condition can be taken as an independent optimality criterion (Neumann-Pearson criterion), which, like the weight criterion, is essentially a consequence of the general criterion of minimum average risk.

, соответствующее весовому критерию, может быть представлено в виде:Expression

corresponding to the weight criterion can be represented as:

Where

According to the weight criterion, an optimal system is one that provides the maximum of integral (17). To fulfill this condition, it is enough for each y to achieve the highest value of the integrand by choosing the decisive function A * (y). This function takes only two values: 0 or 1, so that the integrand either vanishes or is multiplied by one. To achieve the greatest value of the entire integral as a whole, it is enough to provide the greatest value of the integrand for each y, therefore we assume:

1) A * (y) = 1 if the integrand is positive;

2) A * (y) = 0 otherwise.

Since the probability density p _KA (y) cannot take negative values, the optimal rule for solving the detection problem can be written as:

The quantity l (y) = p _K0 (y) / p _KA (y) is called the likelihood ratio. The likelihood ratio characterizes which of the hypotheses on the fulfillment of these mutually exclusive conditions should be considered more plausible. Like both probability densities, the likelihood ratio cannot be expressed as a negative number. The decision about the absence of a collision is made if the likelihood ratio exceeds the threshold value l ₀ , otherwise a decision is made about the presence of a collision.

So, the criterion of likelihood ratio, which is a consequence of the general criterion of minimum average risk, can serve as a criterion for the optimal detection of a critical flight situation. This criterion is most convenient for practical calculations.

Using (2) and (3), we write an expression for determining the likelihood ratio:

The dependence l (y) is shown in Figure 4:

Due to the monotonicity of the curve:

Thus, we can write the expression of the probabilities D and F as a function of the threshold value:

Where

Thus, the threshold value can be directly selected for a given level of probability of missing a collision, which corresponds to the Neumann-Pearson criterion. This avoids the consideration of a priori data on the presence or absence of a collision in real system design.

The conditional probability of a correct decision on the absence of a collision:

or, due to the oddness of Ф (и) = - Ф (-и), finally

The graph of the dependence of the average risk cost on R _k between the “protected” CA and risk CO is presented in Figure 5:

The average risk cost graph demonstrates that when deciding that there is no collision at R _k = 0, the cost of risk corresponds to the cost of loss

apparatus. When making a decision at R _k ⇒∞, that is, making a decision about a collision at each dangerous approach, the cost of the average risk corresponds to the cost of the evasion maneuver.

The minimum of the function s (R _k ) corresponds to the optimal threshold for deciding on the presence or absence of a collision.

The average value of the accuracy of determining the position of the CO 8 hours before the “meeting” at

Today's time is about 1 km. Calculations show that when the average accuracy improves to 500 m, the average risk is reduced by 30%. At the same time, to solve the ASPOS OKP problem at the time of approaching two spacecraft to ensure these accuracy it is necessary to have the following accuracy of determining the spacecraft location for different classes of orbits:

Where

σ _g - error in the radial direction,

σ _n is the error in the longitudinal direction,

σ _b - error in the transverse direction.

The geometric characteristics of the tracking error ellipsoid show that the errors σ _g and σ _b are 5–10 times smaller than σ _n , which is comparable with the dimensions of the spacecraft.

Findings.

Thus, the requirements for the system can be presented, using the proposed approach, through the error of tracking the spacecraft and spacecraft and the likelihood of characterizing the warning of dangerous situations in the RC.

The main parameter for making a decision about the presence or absence of a collision of a “protected” spacecraft with a “CO-risk” is the threshold value of the distance between the “CO-risk” and the “protected” SC, for their safe passage. The value of the threshold distance depends on the navigation accuracy of each “protected” spacecraft and “CO-risk”.

An approach is proposed for determining and justifying the optimal characteristics of a hazard warning system to address issues related to identifying, tracking and assessing the risk of possible dangerous encounters in OKP, based on the criterion of minimum average risk.

Bibliography

1. Oleinikov I.I., Aksenov O.Yu., Pavlov V.P. A strategy for calculating the probability of a safe approach threshold for two space objects: Bulletin of the Moscow Aviation Institute, Rocket and Space Technology. 2012;

2. Theoretical foundations of radar. Ed. Shirmana Y. D .; textbook for universities. M., publishing house "Soviet Radio", 1970, p. 560;

3. Kramer G. Mathematical methods of statistics. Publishing House of Foreign Literature, 1948;

4. Kanzenbogen M.S. Detection characteristics. Publishing house "Soviet Radio", 1965;

5. Shilin V., Oleinikov I. Area of control - outer space: Aerospace defense, information and analytical publication. 2007. Electron. text. Access mode: https://www.vko.ru/DesktopModules/Articles/Articles View.aspx? TabID = 320 & ItemID = 351 & mid = 2869 & wvercion = Staging.

Appendix 2

The main properties of systems

The definition of "system", as explained in systems theory and system analysis, includes its main properties such as integrity, structure, organization and functionality.

The integrity of the system means that each element of the system contributes to the implementation of the objective function of the system.

Structurality is the orderliness of the system, a specific set and arrangement of elements with connections between them. There is a relationship between the function and structure of the system, as between philosophical categories of content and form. A change in the content (functions) entails a change in form (structure), but also vice versa.

Organization is a complex property of systems consisting in the presence of structure and functioning (behavior). An indispensable accessory of systems is their components, namely those structural formations of which the whole consists and without which it is not possible.

Functionality is a manifestation of certain properties (functions) when interacting with the external environment. It also defines the goal (purpose of the system) as the desired end result

At the same time, such a property of the system as emergence, which is achieved through certain interconnections and interactions of the elements of the system and manifested in the emergence of new properties that the elements of the system do not possess, is of particular importance.

It should be noted that integrity and emergence are the main integrative properties of the system, and the presence of integrative properties is one of the most important features of the system as such.

Literature

1. Kachala VV Fundamentals of systems theory and systems analysis. Textbook for universities. M .: Hot line - Telecom, 2007, 216 p.

2. Anfilatov B.C., Emelyanov A.A. Kukushkin A.A. System analysis in management. - M.: Finance and Statistics, 2003. - 368 p.

3. System analysis and decision-making: Glossary-reference: Textbook for universities / Ed. V.N. Volkova. V.N. Kozlova. - M .: Higher. school 2004 .-- 616 p.

4. Prangishvili I.V. Entropy and other systemic laws: Issues of managing complex systems. - M .: Nauka, 2003 .-- 128 p.

Claims (11)

1. A method of warning about dangerous situations in near-Earth outer space and on the Earth, which consists in the fact that to obtain the necessary monitoring information about the observed space objects in terms of measuring their motion parameters in relation to a single time, navigation, telecommunication space systems are integrated into the space fragment, space-based monitoring systems, including those based on spacecraft-telescopes, are formed and transmitted using telecommunication facilities of space systems, relevant information from space monitoring systems to receiving systems of a ground fragment, in which the corresponding software processes and procedures carry out joint processing of monitoring information received from space fragment systems and measurement information from ground-based radar, optical means and other types of measurements and information sources , characterized in that in the composition of the ground fragment organizationally and functionally distinguish structurally-functional elements in the main information-analytical center, the segment for monitoring dangerous situations in the field of geostationary, elliptical and medium-high orbits, the segment for monitoring dangerous situations in the low-orbit region of near-Earth space, the segment for calculating the parameters of solar and geomagnetic activity, the segment for analyzing non-coordinate information about space objects and asteroid-comet hazard monitoring segment, while using the means of the main information and analytical center using appropriate software processes and procedures, they collect, process, analyze, systematize, catalog and store information about dangerous and threatening space objects received from space and ground-based monitoring systems and from other available sources, and maintain orbital and reference data bases of the accompanied spacecraft potentially hazardous man-made space objects predict dangerous proximity and evaluate the probability of collision of potentially dangerous space objects with escorted spacecraft, carry out ballistic tracking of predicted hazardous approaches of potentially dangerous spacecraft with escorted spacecraft, reveal the facts of the descent of space objects of risk, including their ballistic tracking, predicting time and areas of impact on Earth, systematize, predict and determine trajectories flights of hazardous objects, and also assess the values of probabilities, time and place of collisions of potential of natural objects with active spacecraft and with the Earth, using the criterion of minimum average risk and taking into account preliminary information from segments about potentially dangerous space objects and predicted dangerous situations, they generate warnings about dangerous situations, promptly bring them to the control centers of space systems and complexes, and, if necessary, to the leadership and government bodies of the Russian Federation and other countries of the world, information on the occurrence of threats and the forecast of the development of dangerous situations in near-Earth outer space and on Earth. 2. The method according to p. 1, characterized in that in order to reduce the average risk and achieve emergence as the main integrative property of the system approach, the criterion of minimum average risk is used, according to which when identifying advantages by comparing several potential decision-making options, use the expression for cost estimates

medium risk:

where: s ₁₀ - the cost of false alarm, that is, the cost of maneuvering;
P (A ₀ ) is the probability of the absence of a collision;
F - conditional probability of false alarm;

- weighting factor;
s ₀₁ is the cost of missing the collision, that is, the cost of damage;
P (A ₁ ) is the probability of a collision;

- conditional probability of missing a collision,
according to which the option of warning about dangerous situations is chosen as optimal, for which the least likelihood of false alarm is among the compared options, taking into account the fact that the conditional probability of skipping a collision for the remaining options is not greater than the optimal one, while taking into account that the minimum cost

medium risk is achieved by striving for maximum expression

, and therefore replace the latter with an integral:

Where:

- conditional probability of no collision;

- weighting factor;

- conditional probability of missing a collision;
p _KA (y) is the probability density of the position of the spacecraft in space;

- the likelihood ratio characterizes which of the hypotheses on the fulfillment of these mutually exclusive conditions should be considered more plausible;
p _KО (y) is the probability density of the position of dangerous space objects in space,
get the largest value of the integrand by choosing the decisive function A * (y), which can take only two values: 0 or 1, so that the integrand either vanishes or is multiplied by unity, for which they assume:
-A * (y) = 1 if the integrand is positive;
-A * (y) = 0 otherwise,
and make a decision based on the criterion

that is, if the likelihood ratio exceeds a threshold value l ₀ , then a decision is made that there is no dangerous situation, if the likelihood ratio is less than a threshold value l ₀ , then a decision is made about a dangerous situation. 3. The method according to p. 1, characterized in that on the means of the segment for monitoring hazardous situations in the field of geostationary, highly elliptical and medium-high orbits using appropriate software processes and procedures, they collect, process, analyze, systematize, catalog and store monitoring information about space objects in the area of responsibility of the segment, obtained from space and ground-based surveillance equipment, maintain a database of space objects and hazardous events in the area of responsibility These segments regularly update and transmit to the main information and analytical center information on the updated parameters of the orbits of space objects, forecast and transmit to the main information and analytical center data on the dangerous proximity of the accompanied spacecraft, as well as with specific potentially dangerous space objects, form and transmit to the main information and analytical center information on the revealed facts of the destruction of space objects in the area of segment responsibility. 4. The method according to p. 1, characterized in that on the means of the segment for monitoring hazardous situations in the low-orbit area of near-Earth space using appropriate software procedures, a catalog of space objects in the specified area is maintained according to information from the Space Control Center, regularly updated and transmitted to the main information and analytical center, information on the refined parameters of the orbits for specific space objects in the low-orbit region, is also predicted provide the main information and analytical center with data on the dangerous proximity of escorted spacecraft with potentially dangerous space objects, accompany the descents from the orbits of space risk objects, the last stages of launch vehicles, including booster blocks, Soyuz and Progress spacecraft, and of other objects, form and transmit to the main information-analytical center with a given periodicity messages about the times of the cessation of falling space risk objects, form and transfer give the main information-analytical center of information about the facts of destruction of space objects in low orbits of near-Earth space. 5. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that, using the means of the segment for calculating the parameters of solar and geomagnetic activity, using the appropriate software processes and procedures, the results of short-term and medium-term forecasting of the indices of solar and geomagnetic activity are prepared and sent to the main information and analytical center. 6. The method according to p. 1, characterized in that on the means of the segment of analysis of non-coordinate information about space objects using appropriate software processes and procedures receive, analyze and process non-coordinate information from monitoring tools for near-Earth space, maintain a database of non-coordinate information on the accompanying spacecraft, monitor the status of escorted spacecraft in emergency and emergency situations, transmit to the main information an analytic center of monitoring the state of tracked satellites. 7. The method according to p. 1, characterized in that on the means of the asteroid-comet hazard monitoring segment, using the appropriate software processes and procedures, information about potentially dangerous asteroids and comets obtained and updated from, is collected, processed, analyzed, systematized, cataloged and stored databases, for example, the Center for Minor Planets, the main observatories of the world, the Russian and International virtual observatories, maintain databases of dangerous asteroid-comet bodies and dangerous events in no liability segment, regularly updated and sent to the chief of information-analytical center of information on the adjusted parameters of the orbits of these objects, predict and sent to the Chief Information and Analytical Center of data on dangerous close encounters objects asteroid-comet hazard accompanied by a spacecraft and Earth. 8. An automated system for warning of dangerous situations in near-Earth outer space and on Earth, which implements a method of warning about dangerous situations, containing hardware-software, information and linguistic means and systems for receiving, storing, transmitting at the objects of a ground fragment and combining communication channels into a network, processing, analysis, forecasting of dangerous situations, as well as radar, optical and other systems and means of measurement, control and monitoring of dangerous situations, characterized I mean that the hardware-software, information and linguistic means of the system in such dedicated functional and structural elements of the system configuration as the main information and analytical center, the segment for monitoring dangerous situations in the field of geostationary, highly elliptical and medium-high orbits, the segment for monitoring dangerous situations in the low-orbit area near-Earth space, a segment for calculating the parameters of solar and geomagnetic activity, a segment for analyzing non-coordinate information about objects and the monitoring segment of asteroid-comet hazard, are combined within each structural element into a local computer network, while in the main information-analytical center and in all segments of the system computer complexes, database servers, computer-based workstations are installed, and subsystems are also being deployed, for example, communication, the solution of target tasks, the formation, display and transmission of output information, the collection and storage of information, and locally e infocommunications area networks are combined by means of a geographically distributed network. 9. Automated system according to claim 8, characterized in that the composition of the main information-analytical center and the allocated segments include hardware-software, information and linguistic tools, as well as the necessary software systems, software processes and procedures that ensure reception, storage, transmission, processing, analysis, forecasting of dangerous situations, including the implementation of an algorithm for calculating average values of the accuracy of determining the positions of space risk objects for divided time before collisions with them on the basis of the criterion of minimum average risk, while the local network of the asteroid-comet hazard monitoring segment is connected via the Internet with databases, for example, the Center for Minor Planets at the International Astronomical Union (Cambridge, Massachusetts), the main observatories of the world, with Russian and international virtual observatories. 10. The automated system according to claim 8, characterized in that the composition of the subsystem for collecting and storing information includes basic information tools called databases - databases, necessary to ensure the completeness and constant monitoring and functioning of the system and its structural elements in accordance with their implementation tasks, for example:
- DB for spacecraft launches;
- DB (data archive) on spacecraft and other observable space objects of technogenic origin with their main characteristics;
- DB (register) of functioning spacecraft and orbital constellations;
- DB on events that occurred in near-Earth space as a result of space activities (explosions, dangerous proximity, planned maneuvers and dockings and their results, descent from orbit, etc.);
- DB (catalog) of space risk objects at the stage of completion of orbital flight;
- DB (catalog) for dangerous space objects approaching the ISS and other escorted spacecraft;
- DB on technogenic pollution of near-Earth space and measures to counteract the accumulation of space debris;
- DB on trajectory measurements and orbital data of spacecraft and space objects coming from different sources of information;
- DB with the results of determining the orbits of space objects from the measurement data,
- DB with the results of forecasts of the time and place of the fall of space objects descending (descending) from orbit;
- DB with the results of forecasts of dangerous proximity of uncontrolled space objects with escorted spacecraft;
- DB on heliogeophysical parameters of the atmosphere;
- A database with the parameters of the used geodynamic models, astronomical, geodetic and other constants and data used in solving ballistic-navigation problems of flight of space objects;
- DB on models of unobserved fraction of space debris;
- DB regulatory documents on the limitation of space debris;
- DB (updated catalog) of objects of natural origin (asteroids, comets and other objects), whose orbits dangerously cross the Earth’s orbit and the orbits of the spacecraft escorted. 11. The automated system according to claim 8, characterized in that the main information and analytical center and dedicated segments are equipped with compatible versions of operating systems and hardware and software platforms, usually of one developer (manufacturer), on which information and data are built and networked computer systems, target information processing servers, database servers for working with relevant databases and workstations.

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