KR102424416B1 - Apparatus for analyzing dynamic discrete event tree and method thereof - Google Patents

Abstract

A method and apparatus for analyzing a dynamic discrete event tree are disclosed.
The simulation unit of this device collects monitoring variables and control variables while performing a simulation of a physical model including a plurality of devices and the timing of operation of the operator, determines a branching rule using the collected monitoring variables, and follows the determined branching rule. Based on the branch point, the branch probability calculation and the control variable are changed based on the generated branch point, and the simulation of the physical model is re-performed using the calculated branch probability and the changed control variable, so that the dynamic A dynamic discrete event tree is generated as a result of the reliability evaluation. The analysis processing unit uses the dynamic discrete event tree generated by the simulation unit to perform the analysis on the generated dynamic discrete event tree while re-executing the simulation on the physical model through the simulation unit. The simulation unit provides monitoring and control variables and simulation progress information at branching points to the analysis processing unit under the control of the analysis processing unit, and the analysis processing unit displays a tree view corresponding to the dynamic discrete event tree, and the user through the displayed tree view Controls the re-execution of simulation for dynamic discrete event trees by the simulation unit according to the selection of .

Description

Apparatus and method for analyzing dynamic discrete event trees {APPARATUS FOR ANALYZING DYNAMIC DISCRETE EVENT TREE AND METHOD THEREOF}

The present invention relates to an apparatus and method for analyzing dynamic discrete event trees.

The event tree (ET) used in reliability engineering refers to a method of branching scenarios into two or more by reflecting the situation that changes at that point when certain conditions are met, and showing how each scenario unfolds. Here, the point at which a scenario diverges when a certain condition is met is called a divergence point, and for the event tree, the analyst uses prior knowledge to determine the order in which multiple divergence points will arrive in advance.

However, the conventional event tree cannot reflect the simulation result of the physical model as the analyst uses prior knowledge to designate the order in which the branch point will arrive in advance. In addition, since the conventional event tree cannot apply changes to the physical model that simulates the process for each quarter in evaluating the safety of the process, there may be a disadvantage in that the accuracy according to the simulation result of the physical model is reduced. have.

On the other hand, Dynamic Discrete Event Tree (DDET) is conceptually the same as the existing event tree methodology. However, the dynamic discrete event tree is different from predetermining the order of branching points in the existing method because the branching point is set by reflecting the simulation result of the physical model in real time, not the method of predetermining the branching point. In particular, a method different from the general event tree is required to control the physical model through human intervention or to simulate the occurrence of accidental factors such as equipment failure. In other words, in this scenario analysis, the dynamic discrete event tree should be applied because the existing event tree, which starts with a branch point in advance, is no longer valid.

Such a dynamic discrete event tree is generated by a random combination of a number of modules, and the event sequence is divided into multiple at each branch point included in the generated dynamic discrete event tree, and at the end, large-scale data is collected to represent the event sequence. is created

Therefore, in order to obtain important information from the event sequence based on the dynamic discrete event tree, a method for effectively managing and analyzing the dynamic discrete event tree of large-scale data is required.

An object of the present invention is to provide a dynamic discrete event tree analysis apparatus and method for effectively managing and analyzing a dynamic discrete event tree of large-scale data.

A characteristic configuration of the present invention for achieving the above-described object of the present invention and realizing the characteristic effects of the present invention described later is as follows.

According to one aspect of the present invention, there is provided an apparatus for analyzing a dynamic discrete event tree, the apparatus comprising:

Monitoring variables and control variables are collected while performing a simulation of a physical model including a plurality of devices and the timing of operation of the operator, and a branch rule is determined using the collected monitoring variables, and a branch point is determined based on the determined branch rule. generated, calculating branching probability and changing the control variable based on the generated branching point, and re-executing the simulation of the physical model using the calculated branching probability and the changed control variable to evaluate the dynamic reliability of the physical model A simulation unit that generates the resulting dynamic discrete event tree, and analysis of the generated dynamic discrete event tree while re-executing the simulation on the physical model through the simulation unit using the dynamic discrete event tree generated by the simulation unit and an analysis processing unit configured to perform A tree view corresponding to the dynamic discrete event tree is displayed, and the simulation unit controls re-execution of the simulation on the dynamic discrete event tree according to a user's selection through the displayed tree view.

According to another aspect of the present invention, there is provided a method for analyzing a dynamic discrete event tree, the method comprising:

A method for an analysis apparatus to analyze a dynamic discrete event tree, wherein the dynamic discrete generated as a result of dynamic reliability evaluation for the physical model by performing a simulation of a physical model including a plurality of devices and an operation time of an operator Displaying a tree view corresponding to the event tree—The dynamic discrete event tree collects monitoring variables and control variables while performing simulation of the physical model, determines branching rules using the collected monitoring variables, and determines branching Generated by generating a branch point based on a rule, calculating branch probability and changing the control variable based on the generated branch point, and re-executing the simulation of the physical model using the calculated branch probability and the changed control variable ― , and re-performing the simulation of the entire event sequence or some event sequences constituting the dynamic discrete event tree according to the user's selection through the tree view.

According to the present invention, it is possible to enable analysis while re-executing the simulation of the dynamic discrete event tree that sets the branch point by reflecting the simulation result of the physical model in real time, rather than a method of pre-determining the branch point.

In addition, it is possible to analyze a specific event sequence by selecting a specific event sequence from among the event sequence, reviewing and rearranging the input data before the end of the event sequence, and re-calculating it.

In addition, depending on the purpose during simulation, the simulation can be stopped at a specific branch point and then the simulation can be terminated or the simulation can be resumed after correcting various input values. can

1 is a schematic block diagram of a dynamic discrete event tree analysis apparatus according to an embodiment of the present invention.
FIG. 2 is a detailed block diagram of the dynamic discrete event tree-based simulation unit shown in FIG. 1 .
FIG. 3 is a detailed block diagram of the analysis processing unit shown in FIG. 1 .
4 is a diagram illustrating an example of configuring and displaying a tree view corresponding to a dynamic discrete event tree according to an embodiment of the present invention.
5 is a diagram illustrating an example of a history graph capable of confirming a change in a variable value of a physical module during simulation according to an embodiment of the present invention.
6 is a schematic flowchart of a method for analyzing a dynamic discrete event tree according to an embodiment of the present invention.
7 is a schematic flowchart of a method for analyzing a dynamic discrete event tree according to another embodiment of the present invention.
8 is a diagram illustrating an example of a tree view in which the type of an event sequence is displayed in the method for analyzing a dynamic discrete event tree according to an embodiment of the present invention.
9 is a schematic flowchart of a method for analyzing a dynamic discrete event tree according to another embodiment of the present invention.
10 is a diagram illustrating an example of an operation that a user can select after a simulation is stopped at a branch point t ₂ according to another embodiment of the present invention.

Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention will be described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings so that those of ordinary skill in the art to which the present invention pertains can easily implement them. However, the present invention may be embodied in several different forms and is not limited to the embodiments described herein. And in order to clearly explain the present invention in the drawings, parts irrelevant to the description are omitted, and similar reference numerals are attached to similar parts throughout the specification.

Throughout the specification, when a part "includes" a certain component, it means that other components may be further included, rather than excluding other components, unless otherwise stated. In addition, terms such as “…unit”, “…group”, and “module” described in the specification mean a unit that processes at least one function or operation, which may be implemented as hardware or software or a combination of hardware and software. have.

The devices described in the present invention are composed of hardware including at least one processor, a memory device, a communication device, and the like, and a program executed in combination with the hardware is stored in a designated place. The hardware has the configuration and capability to implement the method of the present invention. The program includes instructions for implementing the method of operation of the present invention described with reference to the drawings, and is combined with hardware such as a processor and a memory device to execute the present invention.

Hereinafter, a dynamic discrete event tree analysis apparatus according to an embodiment of the present invention will be described.

1 is a schematic block diagram of a dynamic discrete event tree analysis apparatus according to an embodiment of the present invention.

As shown in FIG. 1 , the apparatus 10 for analyzing a dynamic discrete event tree according to an embodiment of the present invention includes a dynamic discrete event tree-based simulation unit 100 and an analysis processing unit 200 .

The dynamic discrete event tree-based simulation unit 100 collects monitoring variables and control variables while performing a simulation of a physical model including a plurality of devices, determines a branching rule using the collected monitoring variables, and follows the determined branching rule. Dynamic reliability of the physical model by creating a branching point based on A dynamic discrete event tree is created as a result of the evaluation.

The analysis processing unit 200 uses the dynamic discrete event tree generated by the dynamic discrete event tree-based simulation unit 100 to re-perform the simulation on the physical model through the dynamic discrete event tree-based simulation unit 100 while performing dynamic discrete events. Allows analysis of trees to be performed.

Specifically, the analysis processing unit 200 develops all the event sequences included in the dynamic discrete event tree and selectively analyzes the selected event sequence from among the developed event sequences, or a specific branch by user intervention during simulation. can be selected for analysis. Here, the event sequence refers to the sequence from the start of the simulation to the end of the simulation. Although such an event sequence is largely divided into four, it may be further classified according to the user's desired end situation.

1) Normal termination (N): When the event sequence reaches a specific condition, it refers to an event sequence that is terminated so that the state of the system calculated by the physical model can be considered as a safe or normal situation.

2) Accident termination (D): The event sequence is not normally terminated (N), and refers to an event sequence that has been terminated so that the state of the system can be regarded as a dangerous or abnormal situation. In the case of such an accident termination (D), various types of accident termination (D) forms may be checked by adding a termination condition desired by the user. For example, by dividing two or more monitoring variables into cases where they are individually or simultaneously satisfied, etc., and including them in the termination conditions, various termination situations for each accident sequence are reflected.

3) End of cutoff (C): At each branch point in the event sequence, the branch probability calculated from the reliability model is calculated as the cumulative product of the branch probability of the previous branch, and is less than or equal to the pre-defined cutoff value (Truncation or cutoff) It refers to the sequence of events in which the calculation of the physical model is terminated when it is judged that the probability is very small. However, this cut-off end (C) may reach a normal end (N) or an accidental end (D) if the simulation is continued without stopping.

4) Unconfirmed End (U): Refers to the event sequence when the simulation is terminated due to unknown reasons or input errors during the simulation process of the physical model. Since the calculation result is unreliable for the unconfirmed event sequence, it can be excluded from the analysis or the simulation can be performed again so that the correct result is derived.

The analysis processing unit 200 may perform the analysis by selecting and re-performing the event sequence corresponding to the above-described unconfirmed end (U) in relation to the selective re-execution of the event sequence.

In addition, the analysis processing unit 200 stops the simulation at a specific branch point during simulation and then completely stops the simulation, or corrects inputs such as process operating conditions, equipment failure, equipment reliability information, and the like, and then performs the simulation. It can be restarted or restarted from the point of termination.

In addition, the analysis processing unit 200 may register a specific monitoring variable among the monitoring variables of the physical model as a registration variable at the start of the simulation and continue monitoring until the simulation ends. Accordingly, when the simulation is re-performed, the dynamic discrete event tree-based simulation unit 100 must continuously provide the analysis processing unit 200 with values for the registered variables registered in the analysis processing unit 200 .

On the other hand, the analysis processing unit 200 uses a branch name corresponding to each branch in order to classify the event sequences indicated by the dynamic discrete event tree. For example, each branch may be distinguished by a branch name consisting of an automatic/manual branch rule number, a branch number generated by the corresponding branch rule, and the like. Therefore, by accumulating the branch names that have passed through to the branch point, the form of the corresponding event sequence can be known. In addition, the branch time is recorded for each branch, which can be recorded based on the simulation time.

In addition, the analysis processing unit 200 may display the corresponding tree form (tree view) through a display or the like so that the user can visually see the form of the dynamic discrete event tree. Accordingly, the user can recognize the event sequence through the dynamic discrete event tree displayed in a tree form, select the desired event sequence or branch, and re-execute it. This will be described in detail later.

Hereinafter, the aforementioned dynamic discrete event tree-based simulation unit 100 will be described in detail.

FIG. 2 is a detailed block diagram of the dynamic discrete event tree-based simulation unit 100 shown in FIG. 1 .

As shown in FIG. 2 , the dynamic discrete event tree-based simulation unit 100 includes a physics module 110 , a scheduler 120 , a diagnosis module 130 , a device operation module 140 , a storage unit 150 , and a simulation. a control unit 160 .

The physics module 110 may perform a simulation of a physical model including a plurality of devices, and collect monitoring variables and control variables based on the performed simulation.

For example, the physical module 110 may support the branch rule diagnosis of the diagnosis module 130 by transmitting the collected monitoring variables and the collected control variables to the scheduler 120 .

For example, the physical module 110 may collect monitoring variables related to the state of the process, such as any one of temperature, pressure, flow rate, water level, or vibration at a specific time from the physical model.

The physical module 110 may collect control variables related to the operation of the process, such as the operating state of the equipment constituting the process, from the physical model.

For example, the operation of the process may include any one of a 25% to 50% operating rate of a pump and a 25% to 50% open rate of a valve among a plurality of devices.

In addition, the physics module 110 compares the previously transmitted cutting value of the branch probability with the calculated branch probability, and when it has a lower value, the simulation of the corresponding branch may be terminated.

Also, if the cutting value has a higher value compared to the calculated branch probability, the physics module 110 may perform a simulation of the corresponding branch in consideration of the calculated branch probability.

According to the embodiment of the present invention, the physical module 110 is MARS-KS (Multidimensional Analysis of Reactor Safety-Korean Industrial Standards), space (SPACE), trace (TRACE), Melcore (MELCOR), MAAP (Modular Accident Analysis) Program) may include a physical model that can be generated using any one of the safety analysis codes.

For example, when the simulation unit 100 based on a dynamic discrete event tree performs a simulation on a physical model of a nuclear power plant, the physical model is developed with safety analysis codes such as MARS-KS, SPACE, TRACE, and the physical module ( 110), and safety interpretation codes such as MELCOR and MAAP can be used to evaluate serious accidents.

However, the physical model is not necessarily limited to such a safety analysis code, nor is it limited to nuclear power plant safety evaluation.

As described above, the physical module 110 executes the physical model and exchanges the result with the scheduler 120, and the monitoring variables of the physical model are transferred to the scheduler 120 through the physical module 110 in real time and branched. Diagnosis of the rule can be supported, and on the contrary, when a specific branch rule is satisfied, a control action for a device in the process is received from the scheduler 120 and transmitted to the physical model to support simulation of the physical model.

The scheduler 120 may generate at least one branch point based on the branch rule determined by the diagnosis module 130 .

In addition, the scheduler 120 transmits the branch probability calculated by the device operation module 140 and the changed control variable to the physics module 110 to support the physics module 110 to re-perform the simulation already performed, and store The branching rule determined by the diagnosis module 130 may be stored in the unit 110 .

When the simulation starts, the scheduler 120 communicates with the physical module 110, the diagnostic module 130, and the device operation module 140 at preset time steps to communicate with the physical module 110, the diagnostic module 130 and the device operation module. The result from 140 may be shared, and the physical module 110 , the diagnostic module 130 , and the device operation module 140 may be called according to a preset order.

For example, when two or more branching rules are determined at a specific time, the scheduler 120 determines a branching rule to be applied for a specific time as any one of two or more branching rules, and sets the remaining branching rules to a time step after a specific time. can be applied to

That is, when there are a plurality of branching rules, the scheduler 120 may determine any one branching rule among the plurality of branching rules and sequentially apply the determined branching rule to the simulation.

When the scheduler 120 generates a branch point according to the determined branch rule, the number of devices to be operated at the branch point to be created, the performance of a single device, the type of control variable, physical characteristics related to the operation of a plurality of devices, and an operator The number of branch points can be determined by determining the number of branch points according to any one of failure modes that may occur during operation or process of equipment and time in operating conditions according to the determination of .

When there are multiple identical devices (eg, 1 out of 3 operating, 2 out of 3 operating, etc.) for performance or safety reasons, the scheduler 120 may create a branch point according to the number of operating points at the branch point. . In addition, the scheduler 120 may be set to generate a branch point according to various operating states of the device.

In addition, the scheduler 120 is not a preset rule, but when the driver determines that the driving condition is changed and the time the driver takes action (eg, 10 seconds after a specific situation, 20 seconds, etc.) is different, the branching point is can create

In addition, the scheduler 120 may generate a branch point due to a failure occurring during the process (eg, power supply failure during process operation, stoppage of a specific pump during operation, etc.).

The scheduler 120 may transmit the changed control variable and the calculated branch probability to the physics module 110 .

The scheduler 120 is responsible for exchanging information between individual modules, creating a branch based on the corresponding information if necessary, and storing the finally generated dynamic discrete event tree in the storage unit 150, thereby creating a dynamic discrete event tree model within the dynamic discrete event tree model. can manage the accident analysis as a whole.

The diagnosis module 130 may diagnose and determine a branch rule for determining a branch point of a simulation to be re-performed using the monitoring variables collected by the physical module 110 .

As an example, the diagnosis module 130 includes an automatic operation module 132 and a manual operation module 134 , and the automatic operation module 132 sets the conditions of the collected monitoring variables according to a preset algorithm for branching rules. Diagnose and determine, the manual operation module 134 may follow the same algorithm as the automatic operation module 132 or diagnose and determine the branching rule based on an operator model capable of simulating human decision-making. have.

The operator model includes a model capable of simulating human decision-making in the manual operation module 134 .

The diagnosis module 130 may review the branch rule using the monitoring variable transmitted from the scheduler 120 and determine which branch rule should be activated.

The device operation module 140 calculates a branch probability based on at least one branch point generated by the scheduler 120 and calculates a branch probability in consideration of whether a plurality of devices have failed and when an operator performs an operation, and It is possible to change the control variables collected by

As an example, the device operation module 140 may change the control variable by deriving the final minimum cutoff set at the branch point generated by recombination of the cutoff set allocated through Boolean operation.

As the device operation module 140 can trace the path that the final minimum disconnection set has passed to the branch point, when the failure state of a specific device is determined at the branch point, information on the tracked route is accumulated and reflected in the sub-scenario. By changing the control variable and adding a failure mode control condition according to the device failure mode to transform the derived final minimum disconnection set, it is possible to change the control variable so that a scenario based on the user's assumption about failure or not is developed.

When a specific branch rule is determined in the diagnostic module 130, the device operation module 140 calculates the branch probability by checking whether the device is faulty and calculates the branch probability to set an appropriate operating state to be given to the physical model, Control variables can be changed.

For example, whether the operation finally set in the device operation module 140 is transmitted to the physical module 110 through the scheduler 120 , and may be reflected in the calculation for a predetermined time step through the physical model.

Storage 150 may be read-only memory (ROM) or other type of static storage device capable of storing instructions, or random access memory (RAM) or other type of dynamic storage device capable of storing information and instructions, or , or Electronically Erasable Programmable Read-Only Memory (EEPROM), Compact Disc Read-Only Memory (CD-ROM), or other compact disc storage device or optical disc storage device (compressed optical disc, laser disc, optical disc, digital versatile disc, (including Blu-ray discs, etc.), magnetic disk storage media or other magnetic storage device, or any other medium that can carry or store the expected program code in the form of instructions or data structures and that can be accessed by a computer; , this is not limited.

For example, the storage unit 150 stores various monitoring and control variables collected from the physical module 110 , various branching rules, branching rules determined by the diagnostic module 130 , and branching points generated by the scheduler 120 (eg, For example, the branch name corresponding to the branch point) and the dynamic discrete event tree generated as a result of simulation for the physical model are stored. In addition, items used in an embodiment of the present invention may be additionally stored if necessary.

The simulation control unit 160 provides the analysis processing unit 200 with information on the dynamic discrete event tree that is the simulation result, and under the control of the analysis processing unit 200, the scheduler 110 reproduces the simulation using the dynamic discrete event tree. control to be executed. In addition, when the simulation is re-performed, information under simulation is received through the scheduler 110 and transmitted to the analysis processing unit 200 .

In this way, the dynamic discrete event tree-based simulation unit 100 can acquire or change the monitoring variable and the control variable from the physical model, and depending on the state of the control variable, there are limitations in the field to be observed by branching to the dynamic discrete event tree method. Process safety evaluation based on the dynamic discrete event tree that can be applied without it can be simulated, and analysis of various event sequences is performed while re-executing the simulation based on the dynamic discrete event tree generated by the simulation already performed. make it possible

FIG. 3 is a detailed block diagram of the analysis processing unit 200 shown in FIG. 1 .

As shown in FIG. 3 , the analysis processing unit 200 includes an input/output unit 210 , a storage unit 220 , an event sequence configuration unit 230 , a tree view processing unit 240 , and an analysis control unit 250 .

The input/output unit 210 specifically includes an input device 212 and an output device 214 , and the input device 212 may receive a user input in a plurality of ways. For example, the input device 212 may be a mouse, a keyboard, a touch screen, a microphone, a sensing device, or the like. The output device 214 may display information or output audio in a plurality of ways. For example, the output device 214 may be a liquid crystal display (LCD), a light emitting diode (LED) display, an organic light emitting diode (OLED) display, a speaker, or the like.

The storage unit 220 includes the dynamic discrete event tree transmitted from the dynamic discrete event tree-based simulation unit 100, the event sequence information configured in the event sequence configuration unit 230, the treeview information generated by the treeview processing unit 240, Information such as initial setting values and registered variables for simulation of dynamic discrete event trees can be stored. In addition, various variables, disconnection values, control values, etc. used in the analysis processing unit 200 according to an embodiment of the present invention may be additionally stored in the storage unit 220 if necessary.

The event sequence configuration unit 230 identifies individual event sequences using the dynamic discrete event tree, configures the entire event sequence, and stores the configured event sequence information in the storage unit 220 . As described above, the event sequence may be divided into a normal end (N) event sequence, an accident end (D) event sequence, a cutoff end (C) event sequence, and an unconfirmed end (U) event sequence.

The event sequence configuration unit 230 may be configured using branch names of branches constituting the event sequence. Each branch constituting the event sequence has various information such as the probability of occurrence of the state of the process. Each branch has an automatic manual branch rule number and a branch number generated by the corresponding branch rule as branch names. Therefore, by accumulating the branch names that have passed through to the corresponding branch point, the form of the event sequence can be known. In addition, each branch includes information on the cumulative branch name so that the flow of the event sequence can be known. In addition, each branch records the branch time at the branch point, and this time is based on the simulation time of the physics module 110 .

On the other hand, the conditional branch probability means the probability of occurrence of the branch at the branch point, and the total branch probability up to the branch point means the occurrence probability of the event sequence. Each branch presents the status of fulfillment of the diagnostic conditions constituting the branch rule at the branch point, and the operation status of the automatic or manual branch rule activated as a result of these conditions being satisfied can also be presented.

In addition, since all branches have different device operation states of the physical module 110, each branch includes status information that can determine the operation and failure of the physical module 110 of the device. Finally, the value of the registered variable is included, and through this, it is possible to grasp the aspect of the registered variable desired by the user for each event sequence.

In this way, in response to each branch constituting the event sequence, various types of information for allowing the status of the branch to be known may be stored together in the storage unit 220 .

The event sequence configuration unit 230 uses the configured event sequence information to find a specific event sequence, for example, an unconfirmed (U) event sequence, according to a request from the analysis control unit 250, and analyzes the information. 250) can be provided.

In addition, the event sequence configuration unit 230 uses the configured event sequence information to provide information on a specific branch point included in the specific event sequence to the analysis control unit 250 according to a request from the analysis control unit 250 . can Of course, this information is stored in the storage unit 220 so that the analysis control unit 250 can acquire information on a specific branch point, but information on a specific branch point during the simulation may include information related to simulation performance. , it may be desirable to obtain this information from the event sequence configuration unit 230 during the simulation.

The information on the branch point may include, for example, the following information, but is not limited thereto.

- Branch name: Ex) A_1_1

- Cumulative branch name: Ex) A_1_1-A_2_1-M_1_5-N

- Quarter time

- Branch Probability

- Conditional branching probability

- True/False by diagnosis rule

- Automatic diagnosis operation status

- Manual diagnosis operation status

- Whether the physical module device works (On/Off, Open/Close)

- Whether the physical module device works (0-100%)

- Whether the physical module device is broken

- Value for each registered variable

In addition, the event sequence configuration unit 230 uses the configured event sequence information to transmit, according to a request from the analysis control unit 250 , upper event sequence or lower event sequence information including a specific branch point to the analysis control unit 250 . can provide

The tree view processing unit 240 may provide the dynamic discrete event tree to the analysis control unit 250 as a tree view configured in a tree form (tree form), for example, as shown in FIG. 4 . In this case, the treeview processing unit 240 may refer to the event sequence information configured in the event sequence configuration unit 230 and display information corresponding to each event sequence in the treeview together. For example, the event sequence type, branch name, etc. may be displayed.

The tree view processing unit 240 displays a specific event sequence selected or filtered by the user in the tree view, or displays a branch point selected by the user in the tree view, according to the request of the analysis control unit 250, or the user Displays information related to the branch point selected by , in the tree view, or displays the upper or lower event sequence to be distinguished from each other based on the branch point selected by the user, or by enlarging or reducing all or part of the tree view. may be displayed, and the embodiment of the present invention is not limited thereto, and various types of tree view processing other than the above-described operations may be possible.

The analysis control unit 250 receives the dynamic discrete event tree generated by the dynamic discrete event tree-based simulation unit 100 and configures it as an event sequence through the event sequence construction unit 230, and through the tree view processing unit 240 It can be configured in a corresponding tree view and displayed to the user through the input/output unit 210 .

In addition, the analysis control unit 250 may control the dynamic discrete event tree-based simulation unit 100 to re-perform the simulation for the dynamic discrete event tree displayed in a tree view according to a user input through the input/output unit 210 . . At this time, the analysis control unit 250 transmits information about the initial simulation setting values and registered variables input through the input/output unit 210 to the dynamic discrete event tree-based simulation unit 100 so that it can be used when the simulation is re-performed. have.

In addition, the analysis control unit 250 performs a process corresponding to the user's processing input on the tree view displayed to the user through the input/output unit 210 through the event sequence configuring unit 230 and the tree view processing unit 240 . The result may be displayed through the input/output unit 210 . For example, a specific sequence of events selected or filtered by the user is displayed in the tree view, or a branch point selected by the user is displayed in the tree view, or information related to the branch point selected by the user is displayed in the tree view. Alternatively, the upper event sequence or the lower event sequence may be displayed to be distinguished from each other based on the branch point selected by the user, or the whole or part of the tree view may be enlarged or reduced.

In addition, the analysis control unit 250 may receive the numerical status of the simulation in progress from the dynamic discrete event tree-based simulation unit 100 and display it in the form of a status window through the input/output unit 210 .

For example, the analysis control unit 250 displays the time from the start to the end of the simulation, displays the end condition set at the beginning of the simulation, displays the number of branches and event sequences generated by branch characteristics or by type according to the type of end state, etc. can be provided through the status window. Here, the degree of achievement of simulation progress may also be displayed, and the degree of achievement of simulation progress may be estimated through the number of generated branches and event sequences.

In addition, the analysis control unit 250 receives a correction input through the input/output unit 210 for information that can be modified among the information displayed through the above-described status window, and transmits it to the dynamic discrete event tree-based simulation unit 100 to proceed. It can be reflected in the current simulation.

In addition, the analysis control unit 250 may provide branch information for identifying the cause, result, and characteristics of an event sequence of an ongoing simulation through the aforementioned status window or another status window. This branch information provides information such as monitoring variables, branch rule diagnosis, branch generation, and whether or not there is a device failure by quarter, and allows the provided information to be modified. At this time, the corrected information may be transmitted to the dynamic discrete event tree-based simulation unit 100 to be reflected in the ongoing simulation.

Accordingly, the user can check the data information accumulated up to a specific branch through the status window displaying branch information, and through this, it is possible to distinguishly know a condition satisfied or an item different from the initial input.

In addition, the analysis control unit 250 may provide a history graph, for example, as shown in FIG. 5 , for confirming the change in the variable value of the physical module 110 through the input/output unit 210 . That is, when the simulation progresses or ends, it is possible to check the change by selecting the monitoring variable of the physics module 110 for one or more event sequences.

Optionally, the analysis control unit 250 may selectively check the event sequence and monitoring variables through a filtering function.

Hereinafter, a method for analyzing a dynamic discrete event tree according to an embodiment of the present invention will be described.

This embodiment relates to a method in which simulation is re-performed for the entire dynamic discrete event tree. A method of re-executing the simulation for the entire dynamic discrete event tree below may be performed by the above-described dynamic discrete event tree analysis apparatus 10 .

Before the description, as described above, for the event sequence used in the analysis method of the dynamic discrete event tree according to the embodiment of the present invention, there are four types of terminations, namely, normal termination (N), accident termination (D), It is assumed that the cutoff end (C) and the unconfirmed end (U) are divided.

6 is a schematic flowchart of a method for analyzing a dynamic discrete event tree according to an embodiment of the present invention.

Referring to FIG. 6 , a tree view corresponding to the dynamic discrete event tree generated as a result of the execution by the dynamic discrete event tree-based simulation unit 100 is displayed through the input/output unit 210 of the analysis processing unit 200 ( S100). For example, as shown in FIG. 4 , a tree view corresponding to a dynamic discrete event tree may be displayed.

It is determined whether to change the initial simulation value to be used when the simulation is re-performed for analysis of the dynamic discrete event tree displayed through the tree view (S110). In this case, the simulation initial value may include a simulation termination condition.

If a change of the initial simulation value is requested, the requested initial value among the initial simulation values is changed to a value input by the user (S120).

When the initial simulation value is changed or there is no change in the initial simulation value, it is determined whether the monitoring variable is registered (S130). That is, it is determined whether there is a registration of a monitoring variable to be continuously monitored during simulation re-execution among the monitoring variables of the physical model.

If it is determined that the monitoring variable has been registered, the monitoring variable input or selected by the user is registered and set as the registered variable (S140).

In this way, when there is or is not registration of the monitoring variable, the dynamic discrete event tree-based simulation unit 100 re-executes the simulation on the dynamic discrete event tree under the control of the analysis processing unit 200 (S150). ).

As such, when the simulation proceeds, a tree view corresponding to the ongoing simulation is displayed ( S160 ). That is, the tree view may be displayed in various ways so that the progress of the simulation can be known. At this time, information on the branch point, for example, branch name, branch time, branch probability, etc., may be displayed together in the displayed tree view, particularly, the branch point in the tree part. In addition, along with the tree view, a status window for checking the progress of the simulation, a status window for checking the status of registered variables, and a history graph for checking changes in monitoring variables may be displayed. These status windows may be integrally formed as a single status window or as different windows.

Thereafter, the end condition of the simulation is determined (S170), and if the end condition is not satisfied, the simulation information, for example, branch point information, etc. is stored until the end condition is satisfied (S180), and then the simulation is continued Repeatedly from the proceeding step (S150).

On the other hand, if the simulation termination condition is satisfied in step S170, information on the dynamic discrete event tree generated as a result of the simulation is stored, and the simulation is re-executed (S190).

As such, in the embodiment of the present invention, it is not a method of pre-determining the branch point, but the simulation result of the physical model is reflected in real time to enable analysis while re-executing the simulation for the dynamic discrete event tree that sets the branch point. have.

Next, a method for analyzing a dynamic discrete event tree according to another embodiment of the present invention will be described.

This embodiment relates to a method in which simulation is re-performed for a specific event sequence of a dynamic discrete event tree. A method of re-executing a simulation for a specific event sequence of the following dynamic discrete event tree may be performed by the above-described dynamic discrete event tree analysis apparatus 10 .

7 is a schematic flowchart of a method for analyzing a dynamic discrete event tree according to another embodiment of the present invention. In particular, this embodiment corresponds to a method for analyzing a specific time sequence of a dynamic discrete event tree.

Referring to FIG. 7 , a tree view corresponding to the dynamic discrete event tree generated as a result of the operation performed by the dynamic discrete event tree-based simulation unit 100 is displayed through the input/output unit 210 of the analysis processing unit 200 ( S200).

Thereafter, it is determined whether there is a selection of a specific event sequence in the tree view (S210). For example, from the event sequence of the tree view displayed as shown in FIG. 4 , an event sequence of a specific end may be selected from among normal end (N), accident end (D), cutoff end (C), and unconfirmed end (U). For example, as shown in FIG. 8 , in a state where the end form of the event sequence is displayed, the unconfirmed end refers to the event sequence when the simulation is terminated due to an unknown reason or an input error during the simulation process of the physical model. The sequence of events in (U) can be selected. In the case of such an unconfirmed (U)-type event sequence, the accuracy and reliability of the calculation are poor. Therefore, the simulation can be restarted separately for only the corresponding sequence, so that the missing sequence can be developed or data can be recovered.

Next, in order to restart the simulation after reviewing and rearranging the input information before the end of the selected specific event sequence, it is determined whether to change the initial simulation value to be used when the simulation is restarted (S220). In this case, the simulation initial value may include a simulation termination condition.

If a change of the initial simulation value is requested, the requested initial value among the initial simulation values is changed to a value input by the user (S230).

If the initial simulation value is changed or there is no change in the initial simulation value, it is determined whether the monitoring variable is registered (S240). That is, it is determined whether there is a registration of a monitoring variable to be continuously monitored during simulation re-execution among the monitoring variables of the physical model.

If it is determined that the monitoring variable is registered, the monitoring variable input or selected by the user is registered and set as the registered variable (S250).

Next, when there is registration of the monitoring variable or there is no registration, the simulation of the selected event sequence is restarted (S260).

As such, when the simulation is resumed, a tree view corresponding to the ongoing simulation is displayed ( S270 ). That is, the tree view may be displayed so that the progress of the simulation for the selected event sequence can be known. At this time, information on the branch point, for example, branch name, branch time, branch probability, etc., may be displayed together in the displayed tree view, particularly the branch point. In addition, along with the tree view, a status window for checking the progress of the simulation, a status window for checking the status of registered variables, and a history graph for checking changes in monitoring variables may be displayed. These status windows may be integrally formed as a single status window or as different windows.

Thereafter, the end condition of the simulation is determined (S280), and if the end condition is not satisfied, the simulation information, for example, branch point information, etc. is stored until the end condition is satisfied (S290), and then the specific event sequence It repeats from the step (S260) of continuing the simulation for .

Meanwhile, if the simulation termination condition is satisfied in step S280, information on the dynamic discrete event tree generated as a result of the simulation is stored, and the simulation for the selected event sequence is terminated (S295).

As such, in an embodiment of the present invention, a specific event sequence is selected from among the event sequences, and input data before the end of the event sequence is reviewed and rearranged, and then re-calculation can be performed to analyze a specific event sequence. do.

Next, a method for analyzing a dynamic discrete event tree according to another embodiment of the present invention will be described.

This embodiment relates to a method for restarting the simulation after stopping at a specific branch point of a dynamic discrete event tree. A method of re-executing a simulation for a specific event sequence of the following dynamic discrete event tree may be performed by the above-described dynamic discrete event tree analysis apparatus 10 .

9 is a schematic flowchart of a method for analyzing a dynamic discrete event tree according to another embodiment of the present invention.

Referring to FIG. 9 , a tree view corresponding to the dynamic discrete event tree is displayed, and the simulation is performed after changing the initial simulation value to be used when re-executing the simulation for analysis of the dynamic discrete event tree displayed through the tree view and registering the monitoring variable. Since the steps ( S300 to S360 ) of displaying the corresponding tree view while re-performing are the same as the above-described steps ( S100 to S160 ) described with reference to FIG. 6 , a detailed description is omitted here for convenience of description.

As such, it is determined whether a specific branch point is selected while the corresponding tree view is displayed as the simulation proceeds ( S370 ). For example, as shown in FIG. 10 , the branch point t ₂ may be selected in the tree view by the user before or after the simulation reaches the branch point t ₂ .

If a specific branch point is selected, after stopping the simulation at the selected branch point (S380), it is determined whether to end the simulation, correct the input value of the simulation, or restart the simulation. As shown in FIG. 10, “Resume?”, “End?”, “Modify input?”, etc. are displayed on the selected branch point t ₂ of the tree view, and the user's selection input through such display can be performed by

Specifically, first, it is determined that the simulation ends (S390). If it is determined that the simulation does not end, it is determined that the input value is corrected (S400). If it is determined that the input value is to be corrected, the input value such as process operation conditions, equipment failure, and equipment reliability information is corrected according to the user's input (S410).

After correcting the input value, it is determined whether to resume the simulation stopped at the branch point (S420).

If there is a user's selection to resume the simulation stopped at the branch point, the above step (S350) is repeated to resume the simulation from the selected branch point using the modified input value.

However, if there is no selection to resume the simulation stopped at the branch point, the process is re-performed from the step S390, which is determined again from the end of the simulation. Of course, such a sequence is not in a fixed order and may be changed and applied in various forms according to applications.

If the end of the simulation is determined in step S390, information on the performed simulation, for example, information such as a dynamic discrete event tree, is stored and then the simulation is terminated (S430).

On the other hand, if a branch point is not selected in step S370, a simulation end condition is determined (S440). If the end condition is not satisfied, simulation information, for example, a branch point After storing the information (S450), it is repeatedly performed from the step (S350) of continuing the simulation.

Meanwhile, if the simulation termination condition is satisfied in step S440, information on the dynamic discrete event tree generated as a result of the simulation is stored and the simulation is re-executed (S430).

As described above, in the embodiment of the present invention, the simulation can be stopped at a specific branch point and then the simulation can be terminated or the simulation can be resumed after various input values are corrected according to the purpose during the simulation. Event tree-based analysis can be performed.

The embodiment of the present invention described above is not implemented only through the apparatus and method, but may be implemented through a program for realizing a function corresponding to the configuration of the embodiment of the present invention or a recording medium in which the program is recorded.

Although the embodiments of the present invention have been described in detail above, the scope of the present invention is not limited thereto. is within the scope of the right.

Claims (15)

As an analysis device for dynamic discrete event trees,
Monitoring variables and control variables are collected while performing a simulation of a physical model including a plurality of devices and the timing of operation of the operator, and a branch rule is determined using the collected monitoring variables, and a branch point is determined based on the determined branch rule. generated, calculating branching probability and changing the control variable based on the generated branching point, and re-executing the simulation of the physical model using the calculated branching probability and the changed control variable to evaluate the dynamic reliability of the physical model A simulation unit for generating the resulting dynamic discrete event tree, and
An analysis processing unit configured to perform analysis on the generated dynamic discrete event tree while re-executing the simulation on the physical model through the simulation unit using the dynamic discrete event tree generated by the simulation unit
includes,
The simulation unit provides the monitoring variable and the control variable and the simulation progress information at the branch point to the analysis processing unit under the control of the analysis processing unit, and the analysis processing unit provides a tree view corresponding to the dynamic discrete event tree. ) and controlling the re-performance of the simulation for the dynamic discrete event tree by the simulation unit according to the user's selection through the displayed tree view,
Analysis device for dynamic discrete event trees. According to claim 1,
The simulation unit,
A physics module that collects the monitoring variable and the control variable while performing the simulation of the physical model;
a diagnostic module for determining a branch rule for determining a branch point of the simulation using the monitoring variable;
a scheduler that generates at least one branch point based on the branch rule;
a device operation module configured to calculate a branch probability related to whether the plurality of devices have failed and a timing of performing the operator's operation based on the at least one branch point, and to change the control variable; and
providing information on a dynamic discrete event tree that is a simulation result to the analysis processing unit, and controlling the scheduler to re-execute a simulation using the dynamic discrete event tree according to the control of the analysis processing unit, and when the simulation is re-performed A simulation control unit that receives information being simulated through the scheduler and transmits it to the analysis processing unit
includes,
The scheduler transmits the branching probability and the changed control variable to the physics module to support the physics module to re-perform the simulation to generate a dynamic discrete event tree that is the simulation result,
Analysis device for dynamic discrete event trees. According to claim 1,
The analysis processing unit,
an event sequence constructing unit that identifies individual event sequences constituting the dynamic discrete event tree and composes the entire event sequence;
a tree view processing unit configured to display the entire event sequence constituted by the event sequence composing unit in a tree view; and
After receiving the dynamic discrete event tree from the simulation unit and transmitting it to the event sequence construction unit, an event sequence is configured, and the configured event sequence is configured and displayed in a tree view corresponding to the tree view processing unit, and then the tree view An analysis control unit that controls the simulation unit according to a user's selection through
Including, dynamic discrete event tree analysis device. 4. The method of claim 3,
The event sequence consists of one or more branches, each branch uses a branch name, and each event sequence has an event sequence form that can be determined through accumulation of branch names of the configured branches,
Analysis device for dynamic discrete event trees. 4. The method of claim 3,
The event sequence configuration unit can search for an event sequence in a preset form among the entire event sequence, and the tree view processing unit can display the searched event sequence on the tree view,
Analysis device for dynamic discrete event trees. 6. The method of claim 5,
The analysis control unit is configured to re-perform the simulation through the simulation unit with respect to the searched event sequence,
Analysis device for dynamic discrete event trees. 4. The method of claim 3,
When the user selects a branch point through the tree view during simulation through the simulation unit, the analysis control unit stops the simulation at the branch point and ends the simulation according to the user's selection, or input performing a correction of a value, or performing a process of resuming the simulation;
Analysis device for dynamic discrete event trees. 8. The method of claim 7,
The input value includes process operation conditions at the branch point, whether there is a device failure, and device reliability information,
Analysis device for dynamic discrete event trees. 4. The method of claim 3,
The tree view processing unit displays the branch point selected by the user in the tree view, or displays information corresponding to the branch point selected by the user in the tree view to correspond to the branch point, or to the user Displaying the upper event sequence or lower event sequence to be distinguished from each other based on the branch point selected by the
Analysis device for dynamic discrete event trees. According to claim 1,
When the monitoring variable to be monitored during the simulation is registered as a registered variable, the analysis processing unit displays the state of the registered variable during the simulation through a status window, or displays a change in the state of the registered variable through a history graph. provided,
Analysis device for dynamic discrete event trees. A method for the analysis device to perform analysis on a dynamic discrete event tree, comprising:
Displaying a tree view corresponding to a dynamic discrete event tree generated as a result of dynamic reliability evaluation for the physical model by performing a simulation of a physical model including a plurality of devices and an operator operation time point - the dynamic discrete event The tree collects monitoring variables and control variables while performing the simulation of the physical model, determines a branching rule using the collected monitoring variables, creates a branching point based on the determined branching rule, and based on the generated branching point to calculate the branch probability and change the control variable, and to re-perform the simulation of the physical model using the calculated branch probability and the changed control variable.
Re-performing the simulation of the entire event sequence or some event sequences constituting the dynamic discrete event tree according to the user's selection through the tree view
Analysis method of dynamic discrete event trees, including. 12. The method of claim 11,
Between the step of displaying the tree view and the step of re-performing the simulation,
changing the initial value of the simulation; and
Registering a monitoring variable selected by the user from among the monitoring variables as a registration variable
further comprising,
In the step of re-performing the simulation, displaying to monitor the state of the registered variable,
Analysis method for dynamic discrete event trees. 12. The method of claim 11,
The step of re-performing the simulation is
retrieving an event sequence specified by a user from among the event sequences displayed in the tree view; and
Re-performing the simulation for the searched event sequence
A method for analyzing dynamic discrete event trees, including. 14. The method of claim 13,
The simulation for the retrieved event sequence is a simulation restarted from the end point of the retrieved event sequence,
Analysis method for dynamic discrete event trees. 12. The method of claim 11,
The step of re-performing the simulation is
displaying a tree view corresponding to the progress state of the simulation;
stopping the simulation at the selected branch point when a specific branch point is selected by the user among branch points of the event sequence displayed through the tree view; and
At the selected branch point, according to the user's selection, terminating the simulation, modifying the input value at the branch point, or resuming the simulation
A method for analyzing dynamic discrete event trees, including.

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