Papers by Sergei Schreider
Due to the significant role of water use in socio-economic development, competition for a larger ... more Due to the significant role of water use in socio-economic development, competition for a larger share in water allocation is intense among stakeholders in watersheds. In this paper, three optimization models are developed to explore the optimal allocation of water among users, thus to resolve water conflicts in watersheds. The first model is a linear programming model. The objective function of this model maximizes the basins' revenue. The second model is a multi-objective optimization model. The objective functions of this model maximize the marginal value of water for stakeholders when environmental water supply is a constraint in the model. The third model is also a multi-objective programming model. Three objective functions; maximizing a basin revenue, minimizing the environmental water shortages, and minimizing water transfer from upstream area to downstream region are considered. These models are applied to the Sefidrud Basin, a watershed with eight administrative provinces, each considered as a stakeholder for the modelling. The formulations of three water allocation models are presented and the results of their implementation are compared. The results from the third model show that it would be able to supply more water to agriculture than other models if water authorities would not want the full satisfaction of environmental demand. In other words, if environment is taken into account as a stakeholder, for whom water shortages are acceptable, the third model is recommended. The comparison of the first and the second models reveals that the second model allocates water to stakeholders more equitably than the first model. In the case of the second model, the percentage of maximum and minimum water shortages for the Sefidrud Basin's stakeholders are 71 and 20, respectively, in comparison with 81 and 8 provided by the first model. Hence, we recommend using the second model for resolving water conflicts in watersheds when the satisfaction of environmental water requirements is crucial for water authorities. The policy of water authorities on environmental water satisfaction is a key factor determining the water allocation pattern of the Basin. Therefore, the issue of whether any shortages in environmental water supply are tolerable should be resolved before any decision related to water allocation is made.
The past decade has seen great change in the institutional environment for water management. The ... more The past decade has seen great change in the institutional environment for water management. The COAG water reform framework (agreed to in 1994 by the Federal and State and Territory governments) is based around several key principles aimed at increasing water use efficiency:
... Finally, when compared with the ARIMA-based forecasting algorithm, using a daily sampling int... more ... Finally, when compared with the ARIMA-based forecasting algorithm, using a daily sampling interval, the KF ... are recorded in the lowest parts for the catchments, at the site of stream gauging stations ... so that the time delay between a rainfall event and the streamflow response can ...
The allocation of water to the stakeholders of a large basin involves conflicting objectives, sin... more The allocation of water to the stakeholders of a large basin involves conflicting objectives, since increasing the allocated water to one stakeholder leads to a reduction in water allocated to other stakeholders. The consideration of conflicting objectives is inevitable when the basin is a transboundary basin, where a river crosses at least one political border, either a border within a nation or an international boundary. This paper proposes a multi-objective optimization model for sharing water among stakeholders of a transboundary river, assuming that the stakeholders cooperate. Here, the cooperation implies a balanced water allocation to stakeholders since shortage in each stakeholder have negative impacts on others. Each objective function of the multi-objective model represents the water profit of a stakeholder; which has to be maximized. To reach a cooperative solution, a new method for transforming the multi-objective formulation to a three-step single objective formulation is proposed. The solution guarantees each stakeholder's profit which is larger than a percentage of its highest possible profit obtained in the case when the percentage of profit is equal for all stakeholders. The proposed model formulation was applied to the Sefidrud River where eight provinces are the stakeholders competing for water resources of this basin.
Tectonophysics, 1993
Shnirman, M., Schreider, S. and Dmitrieva, O., 1993. Statistical evaluation of the VAN prediction... more Shnirman, M., Schreider, S. and Dmitrieva, O., 1993. Statistical evaluation of the VAN predictions issued during the period 1987-1989. In: P. Varotsos and 0. Kulhanek (Editors), Measurement and Theoretical Models of the Earth's Electric Field Variations Related to Earthquakes. Tectonophysics, 224: 211-221.
Climatic Change, 2002
The effects of climate change due to increasing atmospheric CO2 onthe major tributaries to the Sw... more The effects of climate change due to increasing atmospheric CO2 onthe major tributaries to the Swan River (Perth, Western Australia) have been investigated. The climate scenarios are based on results from General Circulation Models (GCMs) and 1000 year time series are produced using a stochastic weather generator. The hydrological implications of these scenarios are then examined using a conceptual rainfall-runoff model, CMD-IHACRES, to model the response of six catchments, which combine to represent almost 90% of the total flow entering the upper Swan River,and hence the Perth city urban area. The changes in streamflow varies considerably between catchments, exhibiting a strong dependence on the physical attributes of the catchment in question. The increase in the magnitudes of rare flood events despite significant decreases in mean streamflow levels found in some catchments emphasizes the importance of estimating changes in the nature of the precipitation (variance, length of storm and interstorm periods), along with changes in the mean, in climate change scenarios.
Climatic Change, Nov 1, 2002
The effects of climate change due to increasing atmospheric CO 2 on the major tributaries to the ... more The effects of climate change due to increasing atmospheric CO 2 on the major tributaries to the Swan River (Perth, Western Australia) have been investigated. The climate scenarios are based on results from General Circulation Models (GCMs) and 1000 year time series are produced using a stochastic weather generator. The hydrological implications of these scenarios are then examined using a conceptual rainfall-runoff model, CMD-IHACRES, to model the response of six catchments, which combine to represent almost 90% of the total flow entering the upper Swan River, and hence the Perth city urban area. The changes in streamflow varies considerably between catchments, exhibiting a strong dependence on the physical attributes of the catchment in question. The increase in the magnitudes of rare flood events despite significant decreases in mean streamflow levels found in some catchments emphasizes the importance of estimating changes in the nature of the precipitation (variance, length of storm and interstorm periods), along with changes in the mean, in climate change scenarios.
In many economic models the utility function chosen is based on preconceived ideas of the economi... more In many economic models the utility function chosen is based on preconceived ideas of the economic state. In order for a utility function to be fit to raw demand data an assumption is made (amongst others) that a preference relation holds within a cycle of data points ). In this paper we assume that errors have occurred in the data collection process which have somewhat corrupted the quantity consumed for the particular commodity price. This results in inconsistences in the preference relation and infeasibility of Afriat inequalities ). We introduce a method that allows the data to shift in order for a Generalised Axiom of Revealed Preference (GARP) to be satisfied by the data enabling a utility to be fitted. This technique is described in section 1. The commonly used Cobb-Douglas utility is defined as
Modelling and Simulation, 2009
A utility function u : R n + := x ∈ R n | x i ≥ 0 for all i → R := R∪ {−∞} is often used to refle... more A utility function u : R n + := x ∈ R n | x i ≥ 0 for all i → R := R∪ {−∞} is often used to reflect the preference structure with respect to possible consumption of n commodities, denoted by a vector x ∈ R n + each of which are priced according to an associated vector of prices p ∈ R n + . We assume that it may take the value −∞ so as to allow for implicit constraints in the framing of associated optimization problems. It is well known that one can define a preference relation yRx, "y is preferred to x", via a utility using
Journal of Hydrology, 2009
s u m m a r y The paper conceptualises new environmental derivatives, water options, which can be... more s u m m a r y The paper conceptualises new environmental derivatives, water options, which can be used as an important leverage to facilitate the growing Australian water market. A model of water option pricing has been developed. This model is based on the theory of stochastic processes with jumps. The developed model is justified by analysis of real price dynamics in water market in northern Victoria, Australia. The price of European call options is modelled as a Brownian motion and compound Poisson process. The numerical simulation for modelled water and option prices is obtained for a set of predefined jumps and hypothetical water price. Potential impacts of the introduction of water options on irrigators and the water market are discussed.
Journal of Hydrology, 2009
s u m m a r y The paper conceptualises new environmental derivatives, water options, which can be... more s u m m a r y The paper conceptualises new environmental derivatives, water options, which can be used as an important leverage to facilitate the growing Australian water market. A model of water option pricing has been developed. This model is based on the theory of stochastic processes with jumps. The developed model is justified by analysis of real price dynamics in water market in northern Victoria, Australia. The price of European call options is modelled as a Brownian motion and compound Poisson process. The numerical simulation for modelled water and option prices is obtained for a set of predefined jumps and hypothetical water price. Potential impacts of the introduction of water options on irrigators and the water market are discussed.
Water Resources Management, 2013
ABSTRACT This paper describes an application of linear programming (LP) methods for optimal alloc... more ABSTRACT This paper describes an application of linear programming (LP) methods for optimal allocation of water among competing stakeholders that would achieve the highest economic return from water use in the agricultural section of the Sefidrud Basin, northern Iran. In a network presentation of the basin, the nodes stand for the supply and demand points and arcs represent reaches. The constraints of the LP model are the network structure of the basin (flows, stream geography and channel capacity), the available surface and ground water in each node, the environmental demand in different reaches, upper and lower bands of supply in each node and water balances. Optimal policies are derived for current and future demand. The optimal policies indicate that, at present, the basin water resources satisfy the demands of all stakeholders. Although, the results show that there is no conflict for supplying stakeholders’ current demands, they indicate that the current proportion of surface water used is not optimal compared with the proportion of ground water used. The results also indicate that some future demands of provinces with lower marginal value of water are unsatisfied and that this could cause conflict between stakeholders. Since in some nodes the optimal solutions suggest using surface water even where they have available ground water, they are categorized as having a higher possibility to construct dams in the basin.
Annals of Operations Research, 2014
The security of gas supply is a crucially important question for the economy of any country. Sout... more The security of gas supply is a crucially important question for the economy of any country. South-eastern Australia has a sophisticated network of gas pipelines that connect the production sites on the ocean shelf and in the inner part of the continent with the major consumers, which are the state capital cities (Adelaide, Melbourne, Hobart, Sydney and Brisbane) and the regional industrial town of Gladstone. Two optimization models were developed in order to test the security of the gas supply system against possible global impacts that affect the demand for natural gas. The modeling research in the present work was focused on the simulation of delivery when demands reach their peak values. The first model minimizes squares of shortfalls in major supply nodes. As major constraints the models used the production levels, supply capacities and the mass balance in pipe junctions. The second model minimizes the total cost of gas delivery, which is a sum of production and transportation costs, while the constraints stay the same. Both models were run for a series of plausible economic scenarios which generated the future values of demand. The potential "bottle necks" in the system components were identified. It was found that the first constraint which became scarce is the pipe providing gas to the port of Gladstone. The capacity of this pipe should be increased in order to meet growing demand. Gladstone is also the site of the liquefied natural gas export industry on the east coast. An increase in pipeline capacity will facilitate the increase of export from Gladstone, but will reduce supply to other consumption nodes. A sensitivity analysis (SA) was implemented for both formulations of the model. The objective was to examine how the key indicators of system security and pipeline flow were impacted by changes (increase and decrease) in peak demands. For this analysis the
Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 2009
Australia has an incredibly variable and unpredictable hydroclimate, and while irrigation is desi... more Australia has an incredibly variable and unpredictable hydroclimate, and while irrigation is designed to reduce risk, significant uncertainty remains in both seasonal water availability (‘allocations’) and irrigation crop water requirements. This paper explores the nature and impacts of seasonal hydroclimatic uncertainty on irrigator decision making and temporary water markets in the Goulburn system in northern Victoria. Irrigation and water trading plans are modelled for the three seasons of the irrigation year (spring, summer and autumn) via discrete stochastic programming, and contrasted against a perfect information base case. In water-scarce environments, hydroclimatic uncertainty is found to be costly, in terms of both the efficiency of irrigation decisions and the allocation of water via the water market.
Environmental Modelling & Software, 2015
ABSTRACT Raising water demands and insufficient freshwater resources are the main reasons of wate... more ABSTRACT Raising water demands and insufficient freshwater resources are the main reasons of water conflicts in transboundary watersheds. Sustainable water allocation can be a resolution for water disputes as it addresses simultaneously economic, social and environmental benefits. In this paper, a multi-objective model is introduced, which leads to sustainable water allocation of transboundary watersheds taking into account all these three aspects. Five water allocation objectives are proposed for this model in which three of them address the social factors and others represent the economic and environmental preferences. The Compromise Programming technique is employed to solve the applied model to the Sefidrud Basin, Iran and several water allocation schemes are provided based on various weights combinations. The results of the model elucidate that the proposed model can allocate 83 percent of the Basin's water resources, to its stakeholders in a sustainable way while the environmental demand is satisfied.
Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 2009
Australia has an incredibly variable and unpredictable hydroclimate, and while irrigation is desi... more Australia has an incredibly variable and unpredictable hydroclimate, and while irrigation is designed to reduce risk, significant uncertainty remains in both seasonal water availability ('allocations') and irrigation crop water requirements. This paper explores the nature and impacts of seasonal hydroclimatic uncertainty on irrigator decision making and temporary water markets in the Goulburn system in northern Victoria. Irrigation and water trading plans are modelled for the three seasons of the irrigation year (spring, summer and autumn) via discrete stochastic programming, and contrasted against a perfect information base case. In water-scarce environments, hydroclimatic uncertainty is found to be costly, in terms of both the efficiency of irrigation decisions and the allocation of water via the water market.
Environmental Modelling & Software, 1999
Experience in northern Thailand suggests that rapid commercialisation of upland catchments can ha... more Experience in northern Thailand suggests that rapid commercialisation of upland catchments can have significant, and often unpredictable, social, economic and biophysical impacts. The purpose of this paper is to describe a multi-disciplinary methodology that is being used to ...
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Papers by Sergei Schreider