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Exchange Rate or Wage Changes in International Adjustment? Japan and China versus the United States

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  • McKinnon, Ronald

Abstract

Under the world dollar standard, a discrete appreciation by a dollar creditor country of the United States, such as China or Japan, has no predictable effect on its trade surplus. Currency appreciation by the creditor country will slow its economic growth and eventually cause deflation but cannot compensate for a savinginvestment imbalance in the United States. Under a fixed exchange rate, however, differential adjustment in the rate of growth of money wages will more accurately reflect international differences in productivity growth. International competitiveness will be better balanced between high-growth and low-growth economies, as between Japan and the U.S. from in 1950 to 1971 and China and the U.S. from 1994 to 2005, when the peripheral country?s dollar exchange rate is fixed so that its wage growth better reflects its higher productivity growth. The qualified case for China moving toward greater flexibility in the form of a very narrow band for the yuan/dollar exchange rate, as a way of decentralizing foreign exchange transacting, is discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • McKinnon, Ronald, 2005. "Exchange Rate or Wage Changes in International Adjustment? Japan and China versus the United States," ZEW Discussion Papers 05-64, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:4547
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    1. Zhang, Xiaobo & Tan, Kong-Yam, 2004. "Blunt to sharpened razor: incremental reform and distortions in the product and capital markets in China," DSGD discussion papers 13, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. Ronald I. McKinnon & Kenichi Ohno, 1997. "Dollar and Yen: Resolving Economic Conflict between the United States and Japan," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262133350, April.
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    1. repec:dau:papers:123456789/5487 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Paul J.J. Welfens, 2009. "Innovationen und Transatlantische Bankenkrise: Eine ordnungspolitische Analyse," EIIW Discussion paper disbei171, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
    3. Antoine Bouveret & Sana Mestiri & Henri Sterdyniak, 2006. "The renminbi equilibrium exchange rate: an agnostic view," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2006-13, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    4. Haihong Gao, 2006. "Real Exchange Rate in China : A Long-run Perspective," Macroeconomics Working Papers 21969, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    5. Risheng Mao & John Whalley, 2011. "Ownership Characteristics, Real Exchange Rate Movements and Labor Market Adjustment in China," NBER Working Papers 17565, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Paul Welfens, 2012. "Marshall-Lerner condition and economic globalization," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 191-207, June.
    7. Gentisa Furxhi & Sonela Stillo & Marinela Teneqexhi, 2016. "Organizational Change: Employees Reaction Towards It," European Journal of Multidisciplinary Studies Articles, Revistia Research and Publishing, vol. 1, ejms_v1_i.
    8. Kurokawa, Yoshinori & Pang, Jiaren & Tang, Yao, 2016. "Exchange rate regimes and wage comovements in a Ricardian model with money," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 96-109.
    9. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5121 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5121 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Emre Ünal, 2016. "A comparative analysis of export growth in Turkey and China through macroeconomic and institutional factors," Evolutionary and Institutional Economics Review, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 57-91, June.
    12. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5378 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5378 is not listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    exchange rate; dollar standard; trade balance; China; Japan;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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