IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/zewdip/21102.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The 2015 refugee inflow and concerns over immigration

Author

Listed:
  • Gallegos Torres, Katia

Abstract

How did the large asylum-seeker inflow to Germany in 2015 affect concerns about immigration? Using individual-level panel data for the years 2012-2018, I show that after 2015 concerns about immigration increased by about 21 pp. and support for extreme right-wing parties by about 1.7 pp. These trends show considerable heterogeneity for different demographic groups. Using a policy that allocates asylum- seekers to districts I identify the effect of exposure to asylum-seekers. In line with the contact hypothesis, living in a high refugee migration district reduced concerns about immigration by 3 pp. The effect appears larger for right- leaning respondents but is otherwise similar across demographic groups.

Suggested Citation

  • Gallegos Torres, Katia, 2021. "The 2015 refugee inflow and concerns over immigration," ZEW Discussion Papers 21-102, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:21102
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/248856/1/1785234021.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Anna Maria Mayda, 2006. "Who Is Against Immigration? A Cross-Country Investigation of Individual Attitudes toward Immigrants," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(3), pages 510-530, August.
    2. Poutvaara, Panu & Steinhardt, Max Friedrich, 2018. "Bitterness in life and attitudes towards immigration," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 471-490.
    3. Alabrese, Eleonora & Becker, Sascha O. & Fetzer, Thiemo & Novy, Dennis, 2019. "Who voted for Brexit? Individual and regional data combined," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 132-150.
    4. Christian Dustmann & Kristine Vasiljeva & Anna Piil Damm, 2019. "Refugee Migration and Electoral Outcomes," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 86(5), pages 2035-2091.
    5. Giovanni Facchini & Anna Maria Mayda, 2008. "From individual attitudes towards migrants to migration policy outcomes: Theory and evidence [‘Immigration policy, assimilation of immigrants and natives’ sentiments towards immigrants: Evidence fr," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 23(56), pages 652-713.
    6. Sascha Becker & Thiemo Fetzer & Dennis Novy & Sascha O. Becker, 2017. "Who Voted for Brexit?," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 15(04), pages 03-05, December.
    7. Edo, Anthony & Giesing, Yvonne & Öztunc, Jonathan & Poutvaara, Panu, 2019. "Immigration and electoral support for the far-left and the far-right," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 99-143.
    8. Sascha O Becker & Thiemo Fetzer & Dennis Novy, 2017. "Who voted for Brexit? A comprehensive district-level analysis," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 32(92), pages 601-650.
    9. Lars Hornuf & Marc Oliver Rieger, 2017. "Can Television Reduce Xenophobia? - The Case of East Germany," IAAEU Discussion Papers 201702, Institute of Labour Law and Industrial Relations in the European Union (IAAEU).
    10. Mayda, Anna Maria & Rodrik, Dani, 2005. "Why are some people (and countries) more protectionist than others?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1393-1430, August.
    11. Andreas Steinmayr, 2021. "Contact versus Exposure: Refugee Presence and Voting for the Far Right," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 103(2), pages 310-327, May.
    12. David Card & Christian Dustmann & Ian Preston, 2012. "Immigration, Wages, And Compositional Amenities," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 78-119, February.
    13. Barone, Guglielmo & D'Ignazio, Alessio & de Blasio, Guido & Naticchioni, Paolo, 2016. "Mr. Rossi, Mr. Hu and politics. The role of immigration in shaping natives' voting behavior," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 1-13.
    14. Ingo Geishecker & Thomas Siedler, 2012. "Job Loss Fears and (Extremist) Party Identification: First Evidence from Panel Data," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 511, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    15. Gordon H. Hanson & Kenneth Scheve & Matthew J. Slaughter, 2007. "Public Finance And Individual Preferences Over Globalization Strategies," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 1-33, March.
    16. Courtney Brell & Christian Dustmann & Ian Preston, 2020. "The Labor Market Integration of Refugee Migrants in High-Income Countries," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 34(1), pages 94-121, Winter.
    17. Alessandro Sola, 2018. "The 2015 Refugee Crisis in Germany: Concerns about Immigration and Populism," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 966, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    18. Hainmueller, Jens & Hiscox, Michael J., 2010. "Attitudes toward Highly Skilled and Low-skilled Immigration: Evidence from a Survey Experiment—Erratum," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 104(3), pages 624-624, August.
    19. Anna Maria Mayda & Giovanni Peri & Walter Steingress, 2022. "The Political Impact of Immigration: Evidence from the United States," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 358-389, January.
    20. Dinas, Elias & Matakos, Konstantinos & Xefteris, Dimitrios & Hangartner, Dominik, 2019. "Waking Up the Golden Dawn: Does Exposure to the Refugee Crisis Increase Support for Extreme-Right Parties?," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(2), pages 244-254, April.
    21. Otto, Alkis Henri & Steinhardt, Max Friedrich, 2014. "Immigration and election outcomes — Evidence from city districts in Hamburg," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 67-79.
    22. O'Rourke, Kevin H. & Sinnott, Richard, 2006. "The determinants of individual attitudes towards immigration," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 838-861, December.
    23. Martin Halla & Alexander F. Wagner & Josef Zweimüller, 2017. "Immigration and Voting for the Far Right," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 15(6), pages 1341-1385.
    24. Hopkins, Daniel J., 2010. "Politicized Places: Explaining Where and When Immigrants Provoke Local Opposition," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 104(1), pages 40-60, February.
    25. Hainmueller, Jens & Hiscox, Michael J., 2010. "Attitudes toward Highly Skilled and Low-skilled Immigration: Evidence from a Survey Experiment," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 104(1), pages 61-84, February.
    26. Gehrsitz, Markus & Ungerer, Martin, 2017. "Jobs, Crime, and Votes: A Short-run Evaluation of the Refugee Crisis in Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 10494, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    27. Bredtmann, Julia, 2022. "Immigration and electoral outcomes: Evidence from the 2015 refugee inflow to Germany," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    28. Lars Hornuf & Marc Oliver Rieger & Sven A. Hartmann, 2017. "Can Television Reduce Xenophobia? The Case of East Germany," CESifo Working Paper Series 6632, CESifo.
    29. Alexandra Avdeenko & Thomas Siedler, 2017. "Intergenerational Correlations of Extreme Right‐Wing Party Preferences and Attitudes toward Immigration," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 119(3), pages 768-800, July.
    30. Lars Hornuf & Marc Oliver Rieger, 2017. "Can Television Reduce Xenophobia? The Case of East Germany," Research Papers in Economics 2017-01, University of Trier, Department of Economics.
    31. Hangartner, Dominik & Dinas, Elias & Marbach, Moritz & Matakos, Konstantinos & Xefteris, Dimitrios, 2019. "Does Exposure to the Refugee Crisis Make Natives More Hostile?," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 113(2), pages 442-455, May.
    32. Kai Arzheimer, 2009. "Contextual Factors and the Extreme Right Vote in Western Europe, 1980–2002," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(2), pages 259-275, April.
    33. Bansak, Kirk & Hainmueller, Jens & Hangartner, Dominik, 2016. "How economic, humanitarian, and religious concerns shape European attitudes toward asylum seekers," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 67898, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    34. Dehos, Fabian T., 2021. "The refugee wave to Germany and its impact on crime," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gallegos Torres, Katia, 2023. "The 2015 refugee inflow and concerns over immigration," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    2. Bredtmann, Julia, 2022. "Immigration and electoral outcomes: Evidence from the 2015 refugee inflow to Germany," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    3. Moriconi, Simone & Peri, Giovanni & Turati, Riccardo, 2022. "Skill of the immigrants and vote of the natives: Immigration and nationalism in European elections 2007–2016," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    4. Campo, Francesco & Giunti, Sara & Mendola, Mariapia, 2024. "Refugee crisis and right-wing populism: Evidence from the Italian Dispersal Policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    5. Pablo Argote & Lucas Perelló, 2024. "Explaining the Impact of South-South Migration: Evidence from Chile’s Immigration Boom," Journal of International Migration and Integration, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 2071-2093, December.
    6. Fremerey, Melinda & Hörnig, Lukas & Schaffner, Sandra, 2024. "Becoming neighbors with refugees and voting for the far-right? The impact of refugee inflows at the small-scale level," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    7. Matti Sarvimäki, 2021. "Managing Refugee Protection Crises: Policy Lessons from Economics and Political Science," RF Berlin - CReAM Discussion Paper Series 2131, Rockwool Foundation Berlin (RF Berlin) - Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM).
    8. Gamalerio, Matteo & Luca, Mario & Romarri, Alessio & Viskanic, Max, 2023. "Refugee reception, extreme-right voting, and compositional amenities: Evidence from Italian municipalities," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    9. Sumit S. Deole & Yue Huang, 2024. "Suffering and prejudice: do negative emotions predict immigration concerns?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 37(2), pages 1-39, June.
    10. Tomberg, Lukas & Smith Stegen, Karen & Vance, Colin, 2021. "“The mother of all political problems”? On asylum seekers and elections," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    11. Frédéric Docquier & Lucas Guichard & Stefano Iandolo & Hillel Rapoport & Riccardo Turati & Gonzague Vannoorenberghe, 2022. "Populism and the Skill-Content of Globalization: Evidence from the Last 60 Years," CESifo Working Paper Series 10068, CESifo.
    12. Francesco Campo & Sara Giunti & Mariapia Mendola, 2020. "The Political Impact of Refugee Migration: Evidence from the Italian Dispersal Policy," Working Papers 456, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics.
    13. Aksoy, Cevat Giray & Poutvaara, Panu & Schikora, Felicitas, 2023. "First time around: Local conditions and multi-dimensional integration of refugees," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    14. Jakub Lonsky, 2021. "Does immigration decrease far-right popularity? Evidence from Finnish municipalities," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(1), pages 97-139, January.
    15. Sergei Guriev & Elias Papaioannou, 2022. "The Political Economy of Populism," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(3), pages 753-832, September.
    16. Lergetporer, Philipp & Piopiunik, Marc & Simon, Lisa, 2021. "Does the education level of refugees affect natives’ attitudes?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    17. Michael R. Strain & Stan Veuger, 2022. "Economic shocks and clinging," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(3), pages 456-475, July.
    18. Anthony Edo & Lionel Ragot & Hillel Rapoport & Sulin Sardoschau & Andreas Steinmayr, 2018. "The Effects of Immigration in Developed Countries: Insights from Recent Economic Research," CEPII Policy Brief 2018-22, CEPII research center.
    19. Stelios Roupakias & Michael Chletsos, 2020. "Immigration and far-right voting: evidence from Greece," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 65(3), pages 591-617, December.
    20. Davide Bellucci & Pierluigi Conzo & Roberto Zotti, 2019. "Perceived Immigration and Voting Behavior," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 588, Collegio Carlo Alberto.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    immigration; refugees; attitudes; concerns about immigration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:21102. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/zemande.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.