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International Capital Flows, External Assets, and Output Volatility

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  • Krause, Michael
  • Hoffmann, Mathias
  • Tillmann, Peter

Abstract

This paper proposes a new perspective on international capital flows and countries' long-run external asset position. Cross-sectional evidence for 84 developing countries shows that over the last three decades countries that have had on average higher volatility of output growth: (1) accumulated higher external assets in the long-run and (2) experienced more procyclical capital outflows over the business cycle than those countries with a same growth rate but a more stable output path. We explain this finding with a stochastic real business cycle growth model in which higher uncertainty of expected income increases households' precautionary savings. In the model, the combination of income risk and the precautionary savings motive leads to procyclical capital outflows at business cycle frequency and a higher long-run external asset position.

Suggested Citation

  • Krause, Michael & Hoffmann, Mathias & Tillmann, Peter, 2014. "International Capital Flows, External Assets, and Output Volatility," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100508, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc14:100508
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    Cited by:

    1. Kollmann, Robert, 2015. "Risk Sharing in a World Economy with Uncertainty Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 10940, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Feng, Chaonan & Han, Liyan & Vigne, Samuel & Xu, Yang, 2023. "Geopolitical risk and the dynamics of international capital flows," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    3. Hoffmann, Mathias & Krause, Michael & Tillmann, Peter, 2019. "International capital flows, external assets and output volatility," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 242-255.
    4. Kollmann, Robert, 2016. "International business cycles and risk sharing with uncertainty shocks and recursive preferences," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 115-124.
    5. Yuan, Shenguo & Wu, Zhouheng & Liu, Lanfeng, 2022. "The effects of financial openness and financial efficiency on Chinese macroeconomic volatilities," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    6. Joscha Beckmann & Robert L. Czudaj, 2020. "Net Foreign Asset Positions, Capital Flows and GDP Spillovers," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 295-308, April.
    7. Aidi Tang, 2023. "Financial Integration and International Dynamics: The Role of Volatility Shocks," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(23), pages 1-27, November.
    8. Linde, Jesper & Adrian, Tobias & Erceg, Christopher J. & Zabczyk, Pawel & Zhou, Jianping, 2020. "A Quantitative Model for the Integrated Policy Framework," CEPR Discussion Papers 15065, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Ivan Jaccard & Frank Smets, 2020. "Structural Asymmetries and Financial Imbalances in the Eurozone," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 36, pages 73-102, April.
    10. Ly Dai Hung, 2021. "Economic Growth with Public and Foreign Investment in Vietnam," Working Papers hal-03241846, HAL.
    11. Robert Kollmann, 2016. "Risk Sharing, the Exchange Rate and Net Foreign Assets in a World Economy with Uncertainty Shocks," 2016 Meeting Papers 721, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Hochmuth, Brigitte & Moyen, Stephane & Stähler, Nikolai, 2019. "Labor market reforms, precautionary savings, and global imbalances," Discussion Papers 13/2019, Deutsche Bundesbank.

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    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

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