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The effect of house prices on fertility: Evidence from Canada

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  • Clark, Jeremy
  • Ferrer, Ana M.

Abstract

Persistent house price increases are a likely candidate for consideration in fertility decisions. Theoretically, higher housing prices will cause renters to desire fewer additional children, but home owners to desire more children if they already have sufficient housing and low substitution between children and other "goods", and fewer children otherwise. In this paper, the authors combine longitudinal data from the Canadian Survey of Labour Income and Dynamics (SLID) and averaged housing price data from the Canadian Real Estate Association to estimate the effect of housing price on fertility in a housing market that has historically been less volatile and more conservative than its American counterpart. The authors ask whether changes in lagged housing price affect the marginal fertility of homeowner and renter women aged 18-45. They present results both excluding and including those who move outside their initial real estate board area, using initial area housing prices as an instrument in the latter case. For homeowners, they find evidence that lagged housing prices have a positive effect on marginal fertility and possibly on completed fertility, while for renters they find no significant effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Clark, Jeremy & Ferrer, Ana M., 2019. "The effect of house prices on fertility: Evidence from Canada," Economics Discussion Papers 2019-24, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201924
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    Cited by:

    1. Atalay, Kadir & Li, Ang & Whelan, Stephen, 2021. "Housing wealth, fertility intentions and fertility," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    2. Daysal, N. Meltem & Lovenheim, Michael & Siersbæk, Nikolaj & Wasser, David N., 2021. "Home prices, fertility, and early-life health outcomes," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    3. Irakli Japaridze & Nagham Sayour, 2024. "Housing Affordability Crisis and Delayed Fertility: Evidence from the USA," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 43(2), pages 1-34, April.
    4. Philipp M. Lersch & Emanuela Struffolino & Agnese Vitali, 2022. "Wealth in Couples: Introduction to the Special Issue," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 38(4), pages 623-641, October.
    5. Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne & Lumengo Bonga-Bonga, 2020. "House prices and fertility in South Africa: A spatial econometric analysis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(4), pages 3193-3210.
    6. Rishabh Tyagi, 2024. "Employment uncertainty and reproductive decisions in Norway: a register-based study based on plant closures," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2024-026, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    7. Hong Liu & Lili Liu & Fei Wang, 2023. "Housing wealth and fertility: evidence from China," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 36(1), pages 359-395, January.
    8. Janetta Nestorová Dická & Filip Lipták, 2024. "Regional fertility predictors based on socioeconomic determinants in Slovakia," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 1-43, September.
    9. William A. V. Clark & Daichun Yi & Xin Zhang, 2020. "Do House Prices Affect Fertility Behavior in China? An Empirical Examination," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 43(5), pages 423-449, September.
    10. Awaworyi Churchill, Sefa & Smyth, Russell & Trinh, Trong-Anh & Yew, Siew Ling, 2022. "Local crime and fertility," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 312-331.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic determinants of fertility; housing prices; wealth effects; home ownership;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D13 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Production and Intrahouse Allocation
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand

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