IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/iamodp/138.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Betreiben Indexfonds Agrarspekulation? Erläuterungen zum Geschäftsmodell und zum weiteren Forschungsbedarf
[Do index funds speculate on agricultural futures markets? Explanatory notes on the business model and the additional need for research]

Author

Listed:
  • Prehn, Sören
  • Glauben, Thomas
  • Pies, Ingo
  • Will, Matthias Georg
  • Loy, Jens-Peter

Abstract

Indexfonds sind aufgrund ihrer Terminmarktgeschäfte mit Agrarrohstoffen ins Zentrum öffentlicher Aufmerksamkeit und Kritik geraten. Hierzu kursieren in den Medien zahlreiche Falschinformationen, deren Korrektur sich durch klar identifizierbare Forschungslücken der empirischen Literatur verzögert hat. Gleichwohl können folgende Erkenntnisse helfen, die Debatte zu versachlichen: Indexfonds folgen einer passiven Handelsstrategie. Sie zeichnen einen Markttrend nach. Hiervon geht eine preisstabilisierende Wirkung aus. Deshalb ist zu befürchten, dass regulatorische Einschränkungen der Geschäftsaktivität von Indexfonds in Form von strengen Positionslimits oder Preislimits der Funktionsweise von Terminmärkten nicht zuträglich, sondern abträglich sind.

Suggested Citation

  • Prehn, Sören & Glauben, Thomas & Pies, Ingo & Will, Matthias Georg & Loy, Jens-Peter, 2013. "Betreiben Indexfonds Agrarspekulation? Erläuterungen zum Geschäftsmodell und zum weiteren Forschungsbedarf [Do index funds speculate on agricultural futures markets? Explanatory notes on the busine," IAMO Discussion Papers 138, Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:iamodp:138
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/70912/1/737650435.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter C. B. Phillips & Shuping Shi & Jun Yu, 2014. "Specification Sensitivity in Right-Tailed Unit Root Testing for Explosive Behaviour," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(3), pages 315-333, June.
    2. Peter C. B. Phillips & Shu-Ping Shi & Jun Yu, 2011. "Testing for Multiple Bubbles," Working Papers CoFie-03-2011, Singapore Management University, Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics.
    3. Peter C. B. Phillips & Jun Yu, 2011. "Dating the timeline of financial bubbles during the subprime crisis," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 2(3), pages 455-491, November.
    4. Ingo Pies & Sören Prehn & Thomas Glauben & Matthias Will, 2013. "Nahrungssicherheit und Agrarspekulation: Was ist politisch zu tun?," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 93(2), pages 103-109, February.
    5. Irwin, Scott H. & Sanders, Dwight R. & Merrin, Robert P., 2009. "Devil or Angel? The Role of Speculation in the Recent Commodity Price Boom (and Bust)," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 41(2), August.
    6. Peter C. B. Phillips & Shu-Ping Shi & Jun Yu, 2011. "Specification Sensitivity in Right-Tailed Unit Root Testing for Explosive Behavior," Working Papers 15-2011, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
    7. Irwin, Scott H. & Sanders, Dwight R., 2012. "Testing the Masters Hypothesis in commodity futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 256-269.
    8. Brunetti, Celso & Reiffen, David, 2014. "Commodity index trading and hedging costs," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 153-180.
    9. Westerhoff, Frank, 2003. "Speculative markets and the effectiveness of price limits," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 493-508, December.
    10. Dark, Jonathan, 2012. "Will tighter futures price limits decrease hedge effectiveness?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 2717-2728.
    11. Scott Willenbrock, 2011. "Diversification Return, Portfolio Rebalancing, and the Commodity Return Puzzle," Papers 1109.1256, arXiv.org.
    12. Scott H. Irwin & Dwight R. Sanders, 2011. "Index Funds, Financialization, and Commodity Futures Markets," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 33(1), pages 1-31.
    13. Will, Matthias Georg & Prehn, Sören & Pies, Ingo & Glauben, Thomas, 2012. "Is financial speculation with agricultural commodities harmful or helpful? A literature review of current empirical research," Discussion Papers 2012-27, Martin Luther University of Halle-Wittenberg, Chair of Economic Ethics.
    14. ap Gwilym, Rhys & Ebrahim, M. Shahid, 2013. "Can position limits restrain ‘rogue’ trading?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 824-836.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:zbw:iamodp:158731 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Prehn Sören & Glauben Thomas & Pies Ingo & Will Matthias & Loy Jens-Peter, 2013. "Betreiben Indexfonds Agrarspekulation? Erläuterungen zum Geschäftsmodell und zum weiteren Forschungsbedarf / Do Index Funds Speculate on Agricultural Futures Markets? Explanatory Notes on the Business," ORDO. Jahrbuch für die Ordnung von Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft, De Gruyter, vol. 64(1), pages 421-442, January.
    3. Boyd, Naomi E. & Harris, Jeffrey H. & Li, Bingxin, 2018. "An update on speculation and financialization in commodity markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 10(C), pages 91-104.
    4. Etienne, Xiaoli L. & Irwin, Scott H. & Garcia, Philip, 2014. "Bubbles in food commodity markets: Four decades of evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 129-155.
    5. Haase, Marco & Seiler Zimmermann, Yvonne & Zimmermann, Heinz, 2016. "The impact of speculation on commodity futures markets – A review of the findings of 100 empirical studies," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 1-15.
    6. Prehn, Sören & Glauben, Thomas & Loy, Jens-Peter & Pies, Ingo & Will, Matthias Georg, 2014. "The impact of long-only index funds on price discovery and market performance in agricultural futures markets," IAMO Discussion Papers 169081, Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO).
    7. Yan, Lei & Irwin, Scott H. & Sanders, Dwight R., 2018. "Mapping algorithms, agricultural futures, and the relationship between commodity investment flows and crude oil futures prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 486-504.
    8. Su-Ling TSAI & Hsien-Hung KUNG & Kai-yin Allison HAGA, 2015. "Testing for Multiple Bubbles in the 35 Large and Medium Cities of Real Estate Price in China," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(4(605), W), pages 275-290, Winter.
    9. Zhao, Yanping & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Su, Chi-Wei & Nian, Rui, 2015. "Gold bubbles: When are they most likely to occur?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 34, pages 17-23.
    10. repec:agr:journl:v:4(605):y:2015:i:4(605):p:275-290 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Tsionas, Efthymios G. & Konstantakis, Konstantinos N., 2016. "Non-linearities in financial bubbles: Theory and Bayesian evidence from S&P500," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 61-70.
    12. Yin, Libo & Zhou, Yimin, 2016. "What drives long-term oil market volatility? Fundamentals versus speculation," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 10, pages 1-26.
    13. repec:zbw:iamodp:169081 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Sanders, Dwight R. & Irwin, Scott H., 2014. "Energy futures prices and commodity index investment: New evidence from firm-level position data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(S1), pages 57-68.
    15. Leone, Vitor & de Medeiros, Otavio Ribeiro, 2015. "Signalling the Dotcom bubble: A multiple changes in persistence approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 77-86.
    16. Yang Hu, 2023. "A review of Phillips‐type right‐tailed unit root bubble detection tests," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 141-158, February.
    17. Yongheng Deng & Eric Girardin & Roselyne Joyeux & Shuping Shi, 2017. "Did bubbles migrate from the stock to the housing market in China between 2005 and 2010?," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 276-292, August.
    18. Phillips, Peter C.B. & Lee, Ji Hyung, 2016. "Robust econometric inference with mixed integrated and mildly explosive regressors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(2), pages 433-450.
    19. Peter C. B. Phillips & Shuping Shi & Jun Yu, 2015. "Testing For Multiple Bubbles: Limit Theory Of Real‐Time Detectors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1079-1134, November.
    20. James D. Hamilton & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2015. "Effects Of Index‐Fund Investing On Commodity Futures Prices," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56(1), pages 187-205, February.
    21. Morana, Claudio, 2013. "Oil price dynamics, macro-finance interactions and the role of financial speculation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 206-226.
    22. Lui, Yiu Lim & Phillips, Peter C.B. & Yu, Jun, 2024. "Robust testing for explosive behavior with strongly dependent errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 238(2).
    23. Ludwig, Michael, 2019. "Speculation and its impact on liquidity in commodity markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 532-547.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Warenterminmärkte; Preisbildung; Indexfonds; Regulierungen; futures; pricing; index funds; regulation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • Q10 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:iamodp:138. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iamoode.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.