IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/cfswop/200303.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Learning and Equilibrium Selection in a Monetary Overlapping Generations Model with Sticky Prices

Author

Listed:
  • Adam, Klaus

Abstract

We study adaptive learning in a monetary overlapping generations model with sticky prices and monopolistic competition for the case where learning agents observe current endogenous variables. Observability of current variables is essential for informational consistency of the learning setup with the model set up but generates multiple temporary equilibria when prices are flexible and prevents a straightforward construction of the learning dynamics. Sticky prices overcome this problem by avoiding simultaneity between prices and price expectations. Adaptive learning then robustly selects the determinate (monetary) steady state independent from the degree of imperfect competition. The indeterminate (non-monetary) steady state and non-stationary equilibria are never stable. Stability in a deterministic version of the model may differ because perfect foresight equilibria can be the limit of restricted perceptions equilibria of the stochastic economy with vanishing noise and thereby inherit different stability properties. This discontinuity at the zero variance of shocks suggests to analyze learning in stochastic models.

Suggested Citation

  • Adam, Klaus, 2003. "Learning and Equilibrium Selection in a Monetary Overlapping Generations Model with Sticky Prices," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/03, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cfswop:200303
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/72629/1/03_03.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marcet, Albert & Sargent, Thomas J., 1989. "Convergence of least squares learning mechanisms in self-referential linear stochastic models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 337-368, August.
    2. Grandmont, Jean-Michel, 1985. "On Endogenous Competitive Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(5), pages 995-1045, September.
    3. Van Zandt, Timothy & Lettau, Martin, 2003. "Robustness Of Adaptive Expectations As An Equilibrium Selection Device," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(1), pages 89-118, February.
    4. Van Zandt, Timothy & Lettau, Martin, 2003. "Robustness Of Adaptive Expectations As An Equilibrium Selection Device," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(1), pages 89-118, February.
    5. Dixit, Avinash K & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1977. "Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 297-308, June.
    6. Woodford, Michael, 1990. "Learning to Believe in Sunspots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(2), pages 277-307, March.
    7. Marimon, Ramon & Sunder, Shyam, 1993. "Indeterminacy of Equilibria in a Hyperinflationary World: Experimental Evidence," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(5), pages 1073-1107, September.
    8. Adam, K., 2000. "Adaptive Learning and the Cyclical Behavior of Output and Inflation," Economics Working Papers eco2000/25, European University Institute.
    9. Assaf Razin & Efraim Sadka (ed.), 1987. "Economic Policy in Theory and Practice," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-349-18584-9, October.
    10. Duffy John, 1994. "On Learning and the Nonuniqueness of Equilibrium in an Overlapping Generations Model with Fiat Money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 541-553, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Klaus Adam, 2007. "Experimental Evidence on the Persistence of Output and Inflation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(520), pages 603-636, April.
    2. Klaus Adam & Albert Marcet & Juan Pablo Nicolini, 2016. "Stock Market Volatility and Learning," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(1), pages 33-82, February.
    3. Adam, Klaus & Marcet, Albert, 2011. "Internal rationality, imperfect market knowledge and asset prices," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 1224-1252, May.
    4. Franklin Allen & Gadi Barlevy & Douglas Gale, 2022. "Asset Price Booms and Macroeconomic Policy: A Risk-Shifting Approach," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 243-280, April.
    5. Pei Kuang, 2014. "Learning Dynamics with Data (Quasi-) Differencing," Discussion Papers 15-06, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    6. Boone, Brecht & Quaghebeur, Ewoud, 2018. "Beyond rational expectations: The effects of heuristic switching in an Overlapping Generations model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 349-364.
    7. Franklin Allen & Gadi Barlevy & Douglas Gale, 2023. "A Comment on Monetary Policy and Rational Asset Price Bubbles," Working Paper Series WP 2023-25, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    8. Klaus Adam & George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapoja, 2003. "Are Stationary Hyperinflation Paths Learnable?," CESifo Working Paper Series 936, CESifo.
    9. Mathieu Pedemonte & Hiroshi Toma & Esteban Verdugo, 2023. "Aggregate Implications of Heterogeneous Inflation Expectations: The Role of Individual Experience," Working Papers 23-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    10. Norbert Christopeit & Michael Massmann, 2013. "Estimating Structural Parameters in Regression Models with Adaptive Learning," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-111/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    11. Seonghoon Cho & Antonio Moreno, 2008. "Expectational Stability in Multivariate Models," Faculty Working Papers 06/08, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    12. Mele, Antonio & Molnár, Krisztina & Santoro, Sergio, 2020. "On the perils of stabilizing prices when agents are learning," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 339-353.
    13. Gadi Barlevy & Douglas Gale & Franklin Allen, 2017. "On Interest Rate Policy and Asset Bubbles," 2017 Meeting Papers 489, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    14. Ellison, Martin & Pearlman, Joseph, 2011. "Saddlepath learning," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(4), pages 1500-1519, July.
    15. Cars Hommes & Domenico Massaro & Isabelle Salle, 2019. "Monetary And Fiscal Policy Design At The Zero Lower Bound: Evidence From The Lab," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 57(2), pages 1120-1140, April.
    16. Adam, Klaus & Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2006. "Are hyperinflation paths learnable?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 2725-2748, December.
    17. Cars Hommes & Kostas Mavromatis & Tolga Ozden & Mei Zhu, 2019. "Behavioral learning equilibria in the New Keynesian model," DNB Working Papers 654, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    18. Jordi Gal?, 2014. "Monetary Policy and Rational Asset Price Bubbles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(3), pages 721-752, March.
    19. McCallum, Bennett T., 2007. "E-stability vis-a-vis determinacy results for a broad class of linear rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1376-1391, April.
    20. Bruce McGough & Ryuichi Nakagawa, 2019. "Stability of Sunspot Equilibria under Adaptive Learning with Imperfect Information," Working Papers on Central Bank Communication 005, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    21. Hommes, C.H. & Zhu, M., 2016. "Behavioral Learning Equilibria, Persistence Amplification & Monetary Policy," CeNDEF Working Papers 16-03, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Klaus Adam, 2001. "Learning and Equilibrium Selection in a Monetary Overlapping Generations Model with Sticky," CSEF Working Papers 69, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    2. Baranowski, Ryan, 2015. "Adaptive learning and monetary exchange," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 1-18.
    3. Klaus Adam & George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapoja, 2003. "Are Stationary Hyperinflation Paths Learnable?," CESifo Working Paper Series 936, CESifo.
    4. Adam, Klaus & Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2006. "Are hyperinflation paths learnable?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 2725-2748, December.
    5. Atanas Christev, 2006. "Learning Hyperinflations," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 475, Society for Computational Economics.
    6. Shurojit Chatterji & Ignacio N. Lobato, 2010. "Transformations of the state variable and learning dynamics," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 6(4), pages 385-403, December.
    7. Hommes, Cars, 2018. "Behavioral & experimental macroeconomics and policy analysis: a complex systems approach," Working Paper Series 2201, European Central Bank.
    8. Marimon, Ramon & Sunder, Shyam, 1995. "Does a constant money growth rule help stabilize inflation?: experimental evidence," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 111-156, December.
    9. Barucci, Emilio, 2001. "Fading memory learning in a class of forward-looking models with an application to hyperinflation dynamics," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 233-252, April.
    10. Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H. & Wagener, F.O.O., 2009. "More hedging instruments may destabilize markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 1912-1928, November.
    11. Gauthier, Stephane, 2002. "Determinacy and Stability under Learning of Rational Expectations Equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 354-374, February.
    12. Evans, George W. & McGough, Bruce, 2005. "Stable sunspot solutions in models with predetermined variables," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 601-625, April.
    13. Felipe Pérez, 1998. "- Private Experience In Adaptive Learning Models," Working Papers. Serie AD 1998-03, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    14. Van Zandt, Timothy & Lettau, Martin, 2003. "Robustness Of Adaptive Expectations As An Equilibrium Selection Device," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(1), pages 89-118, February.
    15. Doshchyn, Artur & Giommetti, Nicola, 2013. "Learning, Expectations, and Endogenous Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 49617, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Evans George W & Honkapohja Seppo M.S. & Marimon Ramon, 2007. "Stable Sunspot Equilibria in a Cash-in-Advance Economy," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-38, January.
    17. Goenka, Aditya & Kelly, David L. & Spear, Stephen E., 1998. "Endogenous Strategic Business Cycles," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 97-125, July.
    18. Heinemann, Maik, 1997. "Convergence of Adaptive Learning and the Concept of Expectational Stability in Linear Rational Expectations Models with Multiple Equilibria," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-207, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    19. Brock, William A. & de Fontnouvelle, Patrick, 2000. "Expectational diversity in monetary economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 725-759, June.
    20. Cellarier, Laurent L., 2008. "Least squares learning and business cycles," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 68(3-4), pages 553-564, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    adaptive learning; sticky prices; temporary equilibrium;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:cfswop:200303. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifkcfde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.