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Terms-of-trade shocks and optimal investment : another look at the Laursen-Metzler effect

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  • Serven, Luis

Abstract

Conventional analyses of the effect of terms-of-trade shocks provide a misleading view of their impact on investment and the current account, because capital goods imports are excluded from the analytical framework. The author argues that such an exclusion is both arbitrary and unrealistic. The author reexamines the consequences of permanent and transitory changes in terms of trade in a rational-expectations model of a small open economy with intertemporally optimizing agents, and with trade in both consumption and capital goods. In this framework, the responses to a permanent terms of trade improvement in unambiguous: the long-run capital stock, and thus investment, must rise, and the current account must deteriorate -- exactly the opposite of the Laursen-Metzler effect. A transitory improvement in the terms of trade raises saving but has an uncertaineffect on investment. So, the impact on the current account is generally ambiguous and is shown to depend on three factors: the import contents on consumption and investment, the duration of the windfall, and the degree of intertemporal substitutability in both consumption and investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Serven, Luis, 1995. "Terms-of-trade shocks and optimal investment : another look at the Laursen-Metzler effect," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1424, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:1424
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    Cited by:

    1. Cardi, Olivier, 2007. "Another View Of The J-Curve," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(2), pages 153-174, April.
    2. Huang, Kevin X.D. & Meng, Qinglai, 2007. "The Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect under capital market imperfections," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1001-1015, October.
    3. C�sar R. Sobrino, 2011. "Current account, productivity and terms of trade shocks in Norway," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(18), pages 1745-1750, December.
    4. Aleksander Aristovnik, 2007. "Short- And Medium-Term Determinants Of Current Account Balances In Middle East And North Africa Countries," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp862, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    5. Aleksander Aristovnik, 2006. "The Determinants & Excessiveness of Current Account Deficits in Eastern Europe & the Former Soviet Union," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp827, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    6. L. Sahely & R. Darius & O. Williams, 2001. "Terms of trade shocks and the current account in a unified currency area," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(8), pages 1179-1188.
    7. Roberto Duncan, 2003. "The Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Effect Revisited: An Indirect-Utility-Function Approach," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 250, Central Bank of Chile.
    8. Lederman, Daniel & Menendez, Ana Maria & Perry, Guillermo & Stiglitz, Joseph, 2003. "Mexican investment after the Tequila crisis: basic economics, "confidence" effects or market imperfections?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 131-151, February.
    9. Araujo, Juliana D. & Li, Bin Grace & Poplawski-Ribeiro, Marcos & Zanna, Luis-Felipe, 2016. "Current account norms in natural resource rich and capital scarce economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 144-156.
    10. Olivier Cardi, 2007. "The Zero‐root Property: Permanent vs Temporary Terms‐of‐trade Shocks," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(4), pages 782-802, September.
    11. Aleksander Aristovnik & Stanka Setnikar-Cankar, 2006. "How Excessive are External Imbalances in Selected Transition Countries?," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2006(3), pages 243-267.
    12. Nadenichek, Jon, 2001. "Asset markets, relative price shocks and trade anomalies in international real business cycle models," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 183-203.
    13. Vansteenkiste, Isabel & Nickel, Christiane, 2008. "Fiscal policies, the current account and Ricardian equivalence," Working Paper Series 935, European Central Bank.
    14. CARDI, Oliver & BERTINELLI, Luisito, 2004. "A formal model of krugman’s intuition on the J-curve," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2004043, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    15. Mr. Paul Cashin & Christopher J. Kent, 2003. "The Response of the Current Account to Terms of Trade Shocks: Persistence Matters," IMF Working Papers 2003/143, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Jaime Bonet-Morón & Gerson Javier Pérez-Valbuena & Lucas Marín-Llanes, 2019. "Oil booms and subnational public investment: a case-study for Colombia," Documentos de Trabajo Sobre Economía Regional y Urbana 17701, Banco de la República, Economía Regional.
    17. Bonet-Morón, Jaime & Pérez-Valbuena, Gerson Javier & Marín-Llanes, Lucas, 2020. "Oil shocks and subnational public investment: The role of institutions in regional resource curse," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    18. Tarlok Singh, 2007. "Intertemporal Optimizing Models Of Trade And Current Account Balance: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 25-64, February.

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