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The Decline of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Brazil: Explaining the Fear of Floating

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  • Carlos Eduardo Schönerward da Silva
  • Matías Vernengo

Abstract

This paper argues that the pass-through in Brazil has fallen compared with estimates in other studies on earlier time periods, and remains low. Whereas pass-through effects where high and close to 1 in the high-inflation period, they seem to have fallen to around 0.2 after the Real Plan stabilization, a number that is similar to the Import Substitution Industrialization (ISI) period of the 1950s and 1960s. Conventional results suggests that low and stable inflation environments lead to low levels of exchange rate pass-through and thus contribute to weakening the fear of floating phenomenon experienced by some developing countries. In spite of lower pass-through effects the Brazilian Central Bank has maintained high interest rates in order to control the exchange rate. This paper suggests that fear of inflation provides justification for the central banks persistent fear of floating.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Eduardo Schönerward da Silva & Matías Vernengo, 2008. "The Decline of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Brazil: Explaining the Fear of Floating," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2008_11, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:uta:papers:2008_11
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    1. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408.
    2. Jeffrey Frankel & David Parsley & Shang-Jin Wei, 2012. "Slow Pass-through Around the World: A New Import for Developing Countries?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 213-251, April.
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    5. Taylor, John B., 2000. "Low inflation, pass-through, and the pricing power of firms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1389-1408, June.
    6. Hausmann, Ricardo & Panizza, Ugo & Stein, Ernesto, 2001. "Why do countries float the way they float?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 387-414, December.
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    9. Bateman, Bradley W., 1987. "Keynes's Changing Conception of Probability," Economics and Philosophy, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(1), pages 97-119, April.
    10. Ricardo Hausmann & Michael Gavin & Carmen Pagés & Ernesto H. Stein, 1999. "Financial Turmoil and the Choice of Exchange Rate Regime," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 4128, Inter-American Development Bank.
    11. Hausmann, Ricardo & Panizza, Ugo & Stein, Ernesto, 2001. "Why do countries float the way they float?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 387-414, December.
    12. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann, 1999. "Exchange rates and financial fragility," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 329-368.
    13. Matías Vernengo (ed.), 2006. "Monetary Integration and Dollarization," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 3483.
    14. Ms. Agnes A Belaisch, 2003. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Brazil," IMF Working Papers 2003/141, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Armando Baqueiro & Alejandro Diaz de Leon & Alberto Torres, 2003. "Fear of floating or fear of inflation? The role of the exchange rate pass-through," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in a changing environment, volume 19, pages 338-354, Bank for International Settlements.
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    Cited by:

    1. Thereza Balliester Reis, 2018. "Why Are Policy Real Interest Rates So High in Brazil? An Analysis of the Determinants of the Central Bank of Brazil’s Real Interest Rate," International Journal of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(2), pages 178-198, April.
    2. André Nassif & Carmem Feijó & Marco Antônio Silveira De Almeida, 2011. "Why Does Real Exchange Rate Overvalue Inbrazil? Theoretical Determinants, Empirical Evidence And Economicpolicy Dilemmas," Anais do XXXVIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 38th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 237, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    3. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Ferreira, Caio Ferrari, 2020. "Does monetary policy credibility mitigate the fear of floating?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 76-87.
    4. André Nassif & Carmem Feijó & Eliane Araújo, 2011. "The trend of the real exchange rate overvaluation in open emerging economies: the case of Brazil," Working Papers 0111, Universidade Federal do Paraná, Department of Economics.
    5. Carmem Aparecida Feijo & Luiz Fernando Cerqueira, 2013. "Econometric Evidence on the Determinants of the Mark Up of Industrial Brazilian Firms in the 1990s," Economia, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics], vol. 14(1a), pages .91-119.
    6. Abeles, Martín & Cherkasky, Martín, 2019. "Monetary regimes and labour institutions: an alternative interpretation of the downward trend in exchange-rate passthrough in peripheral countries," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Pass-Through; Inflation; Brazil;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean

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